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Frii/Sat/Sun plays .............

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Posted: #1
back in a min...
 
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Posted: #2
a little unorganized, another big card. getting all this stuff out of the way as will be out tmrw.

Holland FUN Parlay: as always. nailed this last monday. we'll see. 
9-match over 1.5 @+223
 
UCL clubs: Sandwich time 
my thoughts: some very nice spots this wknd, each in their own ways. but must advise, i could EASILY put up a goose-egg in the 'w' column . those "big boy" clubs; one thing ive learned thru the eyars is those coaches - theyre a superstitious lot. most of them dont like 'rolling over' right before a major tourney match. though ya wont see them going all-out for a 'w', they sure as h*ll dont like losing, even if they have a 50 point lead in their league. not when KO's come around. like Conte once said "its bad karma'.

Southhampton/Pool - with City owning the H2H advantage, Pool doesnt have any more 'wiggle' room trailing by a point. when Klopp was with Dortmund, they held a 3-year reign as my Poster-childs for Sandwiches. and since moving to 'Pool, suddenly Pool dropping points left and right in these spots (i think its something like 7-8 of the 15 times since last year). our fantasy league calls Klopp a "UCL-coach" (aka, mind squarely set on UCL). going to steal a few quotes from a buddy out there whom sent an email regarding 'Pool with a few interesting points:
"....last year in the KO rounds they hosted Porto at home in 1st leg, played South the wknd prior; fast-forward one year and again.... get Porto at Anfield, and a trip to Southhampton prior. in that match Pool banged in 2 before the half  the parked it in the 2nd and held on for a 2-0 win. lost the posession battle, corners, shots... everything except the final score." 
"Salah, when he starts, has scored in 6 of Pools 8 games in these situations since last year once the KO rounds begin. 'give it to Mo and then park it'"
but im not in their locker room, and dont really have THAT kind of knowledge of the EPL. so I guess following the advice on the hopes this will occur and stick with the system, thoug admit the EPL title race is concerning; but Southhamptons relegation dogfight should help the cause:
Southhampton to win @+800, +1.5 @-120, 1st half over 1.5 @+150
(should take a shot with Salah finding back of net but thats enough for me for one game)

Porto/Boavista - Porto lost in this spot a few weeks ago at home to Benefica and lost 1st place in the process. and theyve been blowing away opponents before CL's. heres a crazy stat though: in the last 11 meetings... Boavista has scored just once; thats 10 out the past 11 cleansheets.  but geez, that trip to Anfield HAS GOT TO be in the back of Portos heads. another one of those "lets-grab-the-early-lead-and-shut-it-down' possibilities. worth a shot at these prices so going to take a stab at this. 
Porto/Boavista uner 2.5 @+150

 
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Saturday:

ManC/Brighton - my LEAST favorite. tho City have simply been a machine (best 'TEAM' in europe - (when you take into consideration their entire roster); but at this stage the name of the game is advancing, nothing more, nothing less. and they have one of the most difficult schedules/stretches ive seen in years in europe. getting a nice price with them to do the minimal amount necessary to make the finals with that visit to White Hart Lane on tuesday looming.  Brighton +1.5 @+180 (the rolaids bottle should be nearby for this one)

Willem/Ajax - BOMBS AWAY. though theyre still there 2 pts behind in title race, they are SAFELY secured in the CL slot for next year (Top 2 in Holland get in). nailed a 4-digit payout when Heracles beat them back in Feb the wknd before Reals visit; and an 800 back in august.   now Juve coming to town. Willem to win @+750, draw @+540, +1.5 @+110

Juventus/Milan - two weeks ago I thought it was a great spot for Milan and commented to someone how fortunate they were to get us at this time.  but since then, Milanos wheels falling off, and I definitely dont like the way theyve been playing of late. but you got to toss that out the window for this derby. never mind all this 'outside stuff', this derby is big, no matter what. Bonucci switching clubs back n forth just added fuel to that inferno. my first thought, im not used to seeing Juventus -120........ in Turin????    you kidding me?.  I dont know whom Max is starting, but honestly,  rest everyone whom is scheduled to take the pitch in Holland. problem with this is - which funnily never seems to make the newswires - is our Federation fines us for resting stars  cuz this is always been one of the 'marketed' matchups in Serie A every year. and since they allowed us to put the start time earlier (by a only few goddamn hours) .... ehhh, never mind. i can go on all night about this. (laughing). I dont really give a rats butt about the result, nor do most of the roster, with the CL coming. but their Ultras are sending busloads and running their mouths..... so now im forced to 'care'.  Donnarumma(GK) is ruled out, so we cant get a 'free goal'. but you just know Gattuso going to have them playing like a pack of wild animals, he hates Juventus. so as crappy as theyve been playing, best option is pass or take Milan. heard Kean is probably to be rested (in case Christian cant go on Tuesday). so let them fine us, donate the money to charity for a good cause. who the (bleep) cares. Milan +1/2 @+120   (only because i will NEVER put money on someone to beat us, if it hits?  thats 'DIRTY' money )

Barcelona/Atletico - im not even sure if Messi/Suarez and everyone is starting. considering their opponent and the rough & tumble ways, and an 8 pt advantage in the table + that trip to Old Trafford looming; this 'COULD' be Barcas "throw-away" game. the only reason i say "COULD" is that Messi wants to win everytime no matter what. so im leery of this, especially since its in Camp Nou.  but Atletico has proven time & again of their ability to keep opponents out of the net so ill take a stab at this since its with '+' money attaches.
Atletico +1/2 @+110

UEL? Chelsea has to be annoyed at having to play on a Monday Night. 
 
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Non-UCL first:
Germany: got to take a play on the Bunde 'Game of Year' which I just found out is their 100th meeting.  (cork popping)  heres to Germany.  
Munich/Dort - personally, I feel Munich, as the saying goes, will/should 'set things straight & proper' this wknd. but their inability to hold leads this year scares me off the HC. Dortmund starting to leak goals at wrong time and Bayern?  ... never mind Bayern.  just cannot see this one staying under.   Munich/Dort over 3.5 @+110 

Conmebol: nasty spots for some of these clubs with consecutive week group stage matches:. still waiting on a few for the wknd.
Fri:
Palestino/O'Higgins (Chi) win @+200, draw @+250
San Martin/Lorenzo (Arg) to win @+145
Manucci/Melgar (Per) to win @+130
Quito/Tecnico (Ecu) win@+610, draw @+345
 
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Man, I had a feeling you’d be on Southampton. I would have hammered them if I wouldn’t have thrown up when I hit the “submit” button lol

Haven’t capped much else yet, but I wonder if Pool lose this game, how that will affect City... Cuz let’s be real, it’s going to in some way. Wonder if it gives them some breathing room and they coast a bit more of if they put the foot on the title’s throat?? 
HOPEFULLY we won’t even have to discuss it lol

BOL mate 
 
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i 'get it'.  ya know, we're supposed to keep hearts out of this hobby. and for the most part I feel i do a good job at it.   but even then, i have my limits.  and picking an opponent to beat Juve goes against the very fabric of probably why i was put on this planet to begin with.     maybe if they had a 7-0 lead afteer the first leg, perhaps then i might.... but it would still be a struggle.

want to know how mess up this melon is sometimes?   so, im on south OK.  and they bang one in early and im sitting here saying to self "now why you got to go out and do that so early dammit'
now they have Pools FULL attention for 80+ minutes.   geez. 
 
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Spec  I missed the goal (was baking) but I came in soon after and I thought, “well, if they get anouther before Pool score, which probably will be in the first half, they got a shot. If not....”
And low and behold Shane Long has a BEAUTIFUL chance at putting a dagger in Pool’s title hopes and HE MISSES. 
You’re thinking is correct... as messed up as it may sound/look lol. Pool will be FULLY focused coming outta HT. Which doesn’t bode well for Southy. Tho, Pool has looked pretty shakey in the back. Still could see a 2-2 outcome. 
 
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Forgot to mention... when you hit that Heracles bet... One, I threw up cuz I forgot to tail lol and two, I FULLY bought in on the sandwich theory. One of those pays for all the losses for a year, minimum. Amazing feeling I bet 
 
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Posted: #9
So you gotta explain to me how you get fined for not playing an injured Ronaldo?? Or one whom is just coming back from a tricky hamstring injury?? 
 
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well, that was fun.  knew i should have plunked some on Salah, and a big "thanks pal" to Jordan for ruining the +1.5 .    (was that your 1st goal this year?) you dont "run" with Pool; bottom line, they got the 'w'w and no injuries. a win-win scenario for them. congrats
had an unposted play with Brescia  (2nd fav italian club. Baggios old stomping grounds) , stretching their lead to 7 for promotion. if they can hold on and get that direct promotion im going to be on cloud 9 in May.

to answer your questions,  i dont celebrate big wins for the same reason i dont let chunk blowing sessions bother me.  just stay level minded and grind. deciding not to take a 400 on empoli the other day is probably the closest i get to being 'bothered' on a play.   "Oliverazations" take much longer tho. 
the fines?  well, they do it because they can I guess. (being sarcastic)  and it gives off the impression (saves face) into showing people we dont receive special treatment.   h*ll if I knew the answer.  i think christian MIGHT get thrown in there for a while just to see how the hammy reacts, dont know.

added:
Serie B:
Cozenza/Crotone draw @+180  

EPL:
Newcastle/Palace over 2.5 @+135 - table positions scream draw, and part of me wondering if I should jump off the 'over' train and be happy for the ride this year.  but Castle have conceded 2+ in 4 straight. so ill tkae this one more week

back in the AM with Serie A, far too many lineup changes for the wknd card. 

 
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up early, long day ahead.  decent start for the wknd:

South. to win @+800 +1.5 @-120,1st half over 1.5 @+150 (L, L, W)
Porto/Boavista under 2.5 @+150 (W)

Conmebol: hit two big draws for a nice start.
O'Higgins (Chi) win @+200, draw @+250 (L, W)
San Martin (Arg) to win @+145 (L)
Manucci (Per) to win @+130 (L)
Tecnico (Ecu) +610, +345 (L, W)

Pending:
Munich/Dort over 3.5 @+110
Brighton +1.5 @+180
Willem to win @+750, draw @+540, +1.5 @+110
Milan +1/2 @+120
Atletico +1/2 @+110
Cosenza/Crotone draw @+180
Newcastle/Palace over 2.5 @+135

quickly here as not much time. 
adding:
Czech: (tailing)
Dukla/Slavia +1.5 @+115, draw @+530
 
Serie A:
Parma/Torino - Toro tied for european slot and CL isnt out of question being 4 pts behind Milan, are in great form, Bellotti scoring goals again. Parma in a mess, and leaking goals all over the place. 11 road draws concerns me a little but really like the prices here:
Torino to win @-115 (and lets toss a little more on that)

Sat: avoiding handicaps and avoiding Brazil, for reasons which are uprintable.  
Penarol/Danubio (Uru) +440, +325
Porteno/Diaz (Par) +690, +375
Nacional/River (Uru) +425, +325
Ayacucho/Sporting (Per) -1 @-122
Concepcion/Audax (Chi) to win @+118
Equidad/Junior (Col)to win @+127
Aldosivi/Boca (Arg) +270, +210
Aurora/Wilstermann (Bol) to win @+200
Flamengo/Fluminese (Bra) +460, +275


 
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Posted: #12
Serie B:
Foggia/Spezia over 2.5 @evens

Sunday:
Serie A:
Napoli/Genoa - Napoli just had their 'throw-away' game, a real clunker of a performance, they looked unmotivated and basically played like cr*p. Ancellotti appears to be sending out a full strength side this time around, so the message seems clear. nobody wants to head into a European match on a 2-game slide. aside from banging in 2 vs Juventus before our 2nd leg with Atletico, Genoa have been cleansheeted in 5 of their past 6 matches (proof positive of what motivation, or lack of it, can do). Napoli -1.5 @-110

Sunday:
Fiorentina/Frosinone over 2.5 @-111, over 3.5 @+220 - will try to get a writeup on this but that 2.5 is a decent sized play.

have a good wknd and GL to all 
 
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Posted: #13
BOL today Spec  might tail that fiorentina over 
 
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Posted: #14
geez... speciman you are costing me a lot of money with your plays man.. no offence 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by arxidi:

geez... speciman you are costing me a lot of money with your plays man.. no offence 

Then cap your own games and shut the fukk up. No one is asking you to tail. In fact, we’d prefer if you didn’t. 
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by DestroyThePitch:

Quote Originally Posted by arxidi:

geez... speciman you are costing me a lot of money with your plays man.. no offence 
Then cap your own games and shut the fukk up. No one is asking you to tail. In fact, we’d prefer if you didn’t.

this. Spec is brilliant. Sometimes he misses (we all fuckin do); but the majority of the time his stuff is on point. Keep grinding and stfu

 
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Posted: #17

destroy the pitch peace_5

Every once in a while someone likes to run their mouth...It’s a shame which is half the reason I don’t post much anymore.  I’m sure it won’t stop Spec from posting, he seems to have a real passion and I enjoy his threads.  

Spec this goes without saying but I probably speak for most when I say we appreciate what you bring to this forum!  Big match this week, Juve!

 
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Posted: #18

Spec I agree with the fellas, your insight is greatly appreciated and there is no doubt in my mind you have provided more winners than losers over time. Keep them coming!

 
 
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Posted: #19
nice wknd (non-futbol), Juve on Sat (more on that in tmrws thread), close friend had daughters communion. family, friends, food, FUN. those 4 F's are important. (actually, you can add a 5th.... futbol.  but thats further down on the list. 
first replies/thoughts:
cant, dave, watch, DTP  appreciate the comments.  that just seems to be the nature of Covers at times. it is what it is. ive always kind of found it funny whenever these ppl with blinders on come in and try to rip you a new one. so now Im responsible for the decision(s) he made? its one thing to critique a play, but geez.... nobody in here should shoulder the blame for someone elses lost money.    cazzo. a new 'low'.    if ya cant handle those chunk-blowing sessions then ya just need to find something else to bide the time. cause theyre going to happen.
and this wknd was an Olive Garden Special.  (tho' did end up on the '+' side in Conmebol thanks to a few big draws and all the Argentines rolling over
dont know about the rest of europe but a buddy tells me a local said "Christmas in April".  i believe it.   7 of the 9 clubs whom went off as 'favorites' didnt win.  a books 'dream' out here. 

Munich/Dort over 3.5 @+110 (W)
Brighton +1.5 @+180 (W)
Willem to win @+750, draw @+540, +1.5 @+110 (L, L, L)
Milan +1/2 @+120 (L)
Atletico +1/2 @+110 (L)
Cosenza/Crotone draw @+180 (L)
Newcastle/Palace over 2.5 @+135 (L)
Napoli -1.5 @-110 (L)
Dukla/Slavia +1.5 @+115, draw @+530 (L, L)
Torino to win @-115 (L)
Fiorentina/Frosinone over 2.5 @-111, over 3.5 @+220 (L, L) 

wiped out my exact score with Juve last tues, but managed to end week on '+' side. 

nice midweek card with UCL, UEL, Copa Lib, and ACL all firing up again.   
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