Posted:
#1
cazzata!!! non mi interessa quante macchine ci sono !!!! Non sono un robot. giuro, sono molto vicino allo sviluppo di rabbia su strada internet !!!
The CL carrot....and the windfall which accompanies it.... is dangling big-time for these teams below. I hardly follow them, but can almost rest-assured they ALL will have major lineup changes or key players on a "minute" limitation, even those whom start wont give 100%; a ton of them were involved Internationally with a lot of miles logged in too. Round 4 reflected/presented proof as to how profitable this can be with 5 draws, Hannover, & Girona ripping off a +1100 for me. 11 out of those 17 games were either draws or had the lead by halftime. doesnt sound like much ehhh?, till ya check out the lines and standings in table.
and the "Poster Child" of this trend is on the agenda yet again (Dortmund); whom are now in the past few years 1W-1D-6L, fer me in this spot. so, pardon if Im looking forward to this wknd, Round 4 provided me with a helluva 'cushion' for the season, if this produce just half of that ill be a happy camper.
(from last week when I started jotting notes)
my own thoughts: Qarabag, Shakhtar, APOEL, Basel. I cannot stress this enuff, those "mid-tier" clubs with limited budgets and dont have those revenue sources like the Big Boys do, all still have a very good chance --- and are right in the thick of it --- of either advancing or getting a Europa spot.
HOME teams to take under consideration; Im even going to venture into 'no-no' land. these will be separate/normal plays however, all following the same guise:
Maribor: they play two straight vs 1st place Olimpija (Cup + league) that week. a team they havent beaten in the last 4 H2H's. *** update *** make that 5 now as Olimp. just won 3-0 in the Cup match on the 11th.
Porto: they have a Cup match the weekend prior. they were bumped from the domestic cup in SAME EXACT scenario last year as a -300 road fav. (4th round too). 2 years ago barely beat an amateur team. ie, they might not give two "bleeps" here.
Napoli - might take Milan on HC if prices are right. but dropping pts last wknd doesnt make me too confident here. *** update *** and Azzuri missing the WC is too big of a variable. NO PLAY.
Sevilla - ditto. Celta is a tough opponent
Shakhtar - fade the h*ll out of them next week, visit Napoli.
**** update *** i still feel the same about this.
Qarabag - ditto Shakhtar. they got Chelsea at home.
Basel - major fade as they have ManU at home midweek.
Olympiakos - still have life after that draw vs Barca, should be super-motivated for Sporting.
Roma - bad, bad, bad spot for Roma. derby with Lazio & roadie to Madrid (*** update*** WC drama makes this a no play).
UCL Sandwiches Round 5: put these in yesterday. like two weeks ago, have a lot in play which always brings a little anxiety. but a few really nice spots this wknd.
****
Atl Mad/Real - no play. both involved.
11/17-18
Krasnador/Spartak +120 to win
Khabarovsk/CSKA +650, +280
Leganes/Barca +900, +425
Arse/Tott +145
Leicester/ManC - +850, +425
Samp/Juve - +600, +325
Stuggart/Dort +350, +320 (friday)
Lever/Leip +114, +280
Amiens/Monaco +600, +333 (friday)
Omonia/APOEL +220, +260 (friday)
Ross County/Celtic +1200, +610
Home Teams: just regular plays.
Slovenia:
Olimpija to win @+264, draw +244 (friday)
Portugal Cup:
Portimonense +1100, +600 (friday)
Spain:
Celta Vigo +600, +375
Ukraine:
Oleksandriya +1300, +600 +1.5 @+124 (friday)
Azerbajan:
SumWayit +900 +450 (friday)
Greece:
Levadiakos +1300, +600, +1.5 @+143
Switzerland:
Sion @+750, +450
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