Germany versus France

I've been following this German team since I was a little kid. And I have been following them religiously since 2006. I know their strengths and weaknesses in and out. Let's put out a statement here: this game is a mismatch for France all over the place. Only red cards will help them today. It's ridiculous to see France being favored.

The public perception is: France are at home, France beat Iceland 5-2, so they must be on a roll. Germany won a stinker against Italy after penalties and are missing four key players. So France are the sexy pick. Public perception vs. reality!

Italy came out of the group stages as maybe the best team in the tourney. Germany just dominated them! They put out a 5-3-2 and Italy were never allowed to have a real chance. If not for the stupidest penalty I've seen in a while, Germany take this one home 1-0 or 2-0 easily after regulation and go into this game as the favs today. Italy was the opponent to beat for Germany because Italy play a style Germany always struggle to handle: a deep and intelligent defending mode. That's the reason they struggled in so many games during the qualifiers. Teams just put 11 men around their penalty box and try to counter. Germany played the most dominating half of all teams in the 2nd one against Italy. They were lacking some offensive firepower because Italy are a great-defending team in their 5-3-2 and partly 5-4-1.

France has nowhere near the tactical and defending quality of Italy, nowhere. They were up 4-0 on Iceland and couldn't even slow the game down and prevent Iceland from scoring. Iceland could have scored three goals easily. It's because they go into attacking mode every game and struggle to keep the tight connection between their defense and midfield. And they are lacking quality and intelligent defenders. Their defense stinks on all levels. France play an equal style to Brazil and you know what has happened in 2014: Germany beat them 7-1 in front of their county. And it was only 7-1 because Germany took three gears off in the 2nd half. Slovakia weren't able to play solid defense - Germany could have won 6-0.

Germany are the DEEPEST team in the tourney and it's not even close. Hummels is a tough loss, yes. But Benedikt Höwedes is almost no downgrade. Germany were shaking their defensive line a few times this tourney and they still didn't concede a goal out of the game. Sami Khedira doesn't play. No problem, so Bastian Schweinsteiger plays. The only reason Schweinsteiger didn't start yet, is, because he came off an injury and was only at 50% when the EURO started. There is no downgrade from Khedira when Schweinsteiger plays next to Kroos. It only helps the offense. I am very interested in the lineup. There are rumors that Leroy Sane might play at the wing. Because France play higher than most opponents and Sane kills you on counter attacks. If he plays, I feel sorry for France's defenders. Sane is a complete mismatch. The likely lineup I could see when playing with four linemen:

Muller

Draxler/Goetze - Ozil - Sane

Kroos - Schweinsteiger

Hector - Boateng - Howedes - Kimmich

Neuer

Germany gave it all to Italy in 120 minutes? They got one day more rest than France. France is at home? That's an advantage for Germany. German players have cold blood. They haven't lost to a host in a big tourney since 1966. It was England in the final and it was the Wembley goal, so they maybe would have won that as well with the goal line technology, ha. France players will get pushed by their fans, they will be highly motivated and their minds will tell them to be hyper aggressive. That doesn't work well against good tactical and disciplined teams.

If the refs don't give red cards to Germany, the Germans will win this one comfortably. It's maybe the biggest betting mismatch of the EURO in my opinion. Germany are favs (+165) over France (+190) to win the EURO, but they are dogs tonight. Doesn't that sound crazy?

I will wait for the final lineup before I lock in my plays.