Juventus / Shaktar - Is this a fix or what?????

If it is NOT a fix, can someone explain why the draw is -120????

If both teams are trying hard, why isn't the draw somewhere close to +200 or something? 

LOL! I guess great minds think alike!

As an aside, I never understood how to bet for the draw.  During any game with two teams - whether it's soccer, basketball, etc. - each side is playing to win (well, maybe except for Juventus- Shakthar). No team plays to draw.

So how does anyone evaluate that a draw is more likely than either side winning?   Even if 2 teams are identically matched, doesn't that just mean that all 3 outcomes (team A win, draw, team B win) are equally likely? So there's no advantage to betting on the draw occurring?

I bet the draw on feel based on a few factors. Home/away, form, motivation, points in the standings, styles, etc..

For what it's worth...

mr_bollox, congratulations on becoming a Covers moderator!!  Perhaps you can restore bake's avatar while you're at it?

There's plenty of reasons why either side might try to win.  A win suits Juventus more than a draw since they'll get the #1 seed.  A loss doesn't hurt Shahktar that much since they've already qualified.  So why not go for the win?  Plus, Shahktar Shahktar's owner is supposedly good friends with Abromovich.  Shahktar is getting a lot of flak for that controversial goal v Nordj...  so they may not want to be involved with a fix.  So there's plenty of reasons to see why either team might try to win.

But with all that, the draw is -130??????

I don't think so.  Juventus has the tiebreaker. 

here's the other thing I don't get.  The under 2.25 is about -120 or so.  That means bookies think it'll be a 1-1 game.

The only circumstance I can see where a draw is dramatically more likely than a win when neither side has fixed the match, is if both teams are incredibly defensive. They're more worried about giving up goals than scoring any. 

But then shouldn't the match end 0-0?  Not 1-1? How can a match be likely to end 1-1 and yet the draw is still more likely than the win?

composite- I'm glad you started this thread. Contrary to what some hosers in this forum think, fix threads are perfectly welcome here and encouraged in the right spot. This is one of those spots.

I played Juventus at a Pick because there's no way they're going to lose this game. I completely agree with your draw theory but I don't think Shakthar will score and I think somewhere in the 90 minutes, Juventus will find a goal or two.

Well.....Let me tell you about my experience in the past in very similar situation.

About 8 years ago Shachtar played in Group Stage of UEFA Cup it was last game of the group stage.For both teams draw was good enough to qualify.Odds were just like now 1.9-2.1 on the draw so I wanted to be a smart behind and I bet £5k=about $8k on the draw.After 90 min of the match I thought what an EZ MONEY as the scoreline was 0-0.Then Shachtar scored on 93rd min lololol .

^

Confused face. So you are saying that this is the perfect spot for a "fix" but you're betting Juve @ a PK? You're saying one thing and doing the other buddy.

Bottom line is that they draw is priced accordingly based on the reality of the situation. BOTH teams are in on a draw. Other than gaining a possible slight advantage in the next round, why risk being knocked out? Shakhtar is perfectly capable of scoring on the counter if Juve attacks. I just dont see the risk.

If this line was a fix it would be well priced below -125. The reality is that bookmakers have it this low on the assumption that both most likely will play an ultra-conservative game here. Shaktar to preserve the top of the group and Juve to advance.

This situation has happened before and both results have happened. Personally; due to the circumstances, I see value in the draw. But, it will be for small stakes as this same instance has happened before (Spain vs Croatia Euros and USA vs Guatamala WC qual) and the better attacking team won easily where a draw NEVER stood a chance. It's a risky play to lay the juice on the draw as they cant just kneel it out and call it a day. The match has to be played the 90 and anything can happen.

No fix or secret dinner meeting here. Just common sense.

Small stakes on a DRAW. Gl either way

I've been around sports betting forever and there's no sport more fixed than soccer. No other sport is even close.  There was no way in hell Shaktar and Juventus were going to let Chelsea get through.

Lucrative- There's no doubt in my mind the match was fixed. I felt it was a fix not necessarily for a draw but a fix to make sure  Chelsea didn't go through. That's why I played it the way I did. If it was a draw, I get my money back on the Pick bet on Juventus and if Juventus won, I cash a bet. It was only going to fall a draw or a Juventus win. I'll make the play I did today 100 out of 100 times. Personally, I figured a draw was the most likely outcome but I'll take the 1-0 win