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MASSIVE EPL Preview + Picks

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Posted: #1
No introduction needed...just read my crap and judge for yourself. 

To start, I rated all 20 EPL teams based on 6 categories: goalkeeper, back line, midfield, forwards, potential, and coaching. 

I understand there is obvious bias here for the categories, such as "Your definition of midfield and forwards could be different from mine based on team formation and roles." Agreed. Basically, center/defensive mids makeup most of the "Midfield" category, but the wingers and #10s makeup some of it as well. Soccer is a game of abstract formations and roles unlike baseball or American football. Therefore, we must accept the imperfection of my criteria. 

Secondly, the "Forwards" category pertains to the strikers and attacking mids. "Does the striker receive adequate support on the flanks and from his #10?" Is important in this respect but also reflected in the "Midfield" category. 

Case example of this would be Watford, who I generously scored them as "4" in the Forwards category. Troy Deeney is an established player and we all saw the potential Ighalo had last year. Bringing in winger Isaac Success could prove to be a steal as he had 7 goals, 6 assists on a poor Granada team last year. This club has a history lately of great scouting so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt with Success. He should help this attack lately. On the flip side, the midfield does not excite me. Maybe CM Doucore (back from his loan at Granada) will prove to be a player, but that is uncertain. Rated Watford as a "2" midfield...just don't see the talent to say it is on par with Everton or Southampton in this respect. 

Third, the category of Potential, which is admittedly is completely biased on my part...but it is the ratings I used to bet my own money, so I'll do them how I want and live and die with my subjective faults. Potential relates to the upside or downside of the club in the context of performance. I gave Hull City a "0" on potential because the infrastructure and leadership isn't there from the owners on down. The owner doesn't have a clue what he is doing, and he is not willing to splash the cash for a head coach or other necessary staff members to assist the club performance. This club WILL be relegated this season. This club will challenge Derby County's 07/08 campaign of a smacking 11 total points over that season. Hull City is a disaster - not just the management, but the talent is graciously lacking. I intend to pound this team into the ground Week 1 as I have Leicester City (-115) as my pick of the week  (more on that later). 

On the other hand, Tottenham was given a "4" because it will be difficult to play their entire XI in Champions League and EPL and still maintain top form. Rose and Walker are big step ups from Davies and Tripper (who aren't bad, just more average players), and there is also a drop off from Eriksen/Lamela to Son/Chadli/Onomah on the wings. This is just a concern I have, and I gave Spurs a "4" to balance my number out a bit over the course of the season. Spurs are my pick to win the league at 17/2 so I suggest you take them big if you are into futures (more on that later). 

Another team I would like to highlight in the Potential category is Liverpool. I have grave concerns about their back line and goalkeeping, but if new CBs Klavan and Matip have solid seasons, this team could potentially win the Premier League. Klopp brought in athletic wingers for his high press (Mane/Wijnaldum) and I love the depth this squad has in their front 6. Without a Europa/CL campaign, this team is going to have a great season possibly similar to Leicester. The difference for Leicester though was their great keeping and back line last season...I think Liverpool could be lacking here but wouldn't shock me if they prove me wrong. Hence the 4.5 in Potential.

If you have any more questions about my numbers feel free to ask, I'll happily give my opinion. I know I'm biased, but if you would rather get your picks from ESPNFC then have fun watching your money go up in flames. 

With all this said, here is a link to the spreadsheet that I use to keep track. Primarily I bet EPL because of the familiarity factor with the players, but I also like to dabble into CL, Serie A, Bundesliga, NOS, etc. especially for parlay purposes. 

https://postimg.org/image/nbo8cd4r9/
 
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Posted: #2
Pick of the Week: Leicester (-110) over Hull City.

Everybody is doubting Leicester this year because they lost Kante. Huge loss, and they will not win the league again, they also won't come close to it thanks to United, City, Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool, etc. all re-upping their talent. However, Leicester is still a very, very good team with a very, very good manager. They come in at 7th in my power ratings, and I think they are capable of obliterating a poor Hull City side on the road. 

For one, I know this is Hull's first game back in the Prem at home. They will come out firing and the crowd should be pumped...but that will last for about 5 minutes. What happens if Leicester controls the game from the onset, even if they plan to counter-attack? I'm not concerned. They still have Mahrez. They still have Vardy. They still have Okazaki. 

Hull City is in ****ing shambles. They haven't signed any players. They only have 13 first team players available. CB Dawson is out and RB Odubajo is also out. I expect Leicester to score between 2 and 5 goals tomorrow. The only real goal threat tomorrow is CF Abel Hernandez, but I expect Ranieri to employ a scheme to shut down Hull's only goal scorer (20 last year in Championship). Also remember, their 2nd best player CF Diame left for relegated Newcastle...if that doesn't say it all about this joke of a club then I don't know what does. This club is worse than last year, and they finished 4th last year...with Diame. 

I don't like to throw around the word "LOCK"...but this is as good as it gets. I don't know sharks are jumping out at Leicester here. The team is fit and they should dominate a side that more closely resembles a mid-table Championship team than a poor Premier League team. So what if it is at home? Leicester has no Champions League or cup games to worry about right now? 

This is going to be an abomination. 

Prediction: Leicester City 3. Hull City 0. 

Betting 6.6 units to win 6 units. (-110). 

Thank you Jesus/Allah/Zeus/Buddah for Premier League betting.
 
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Posted: #3
Second pick: Tottenham (+140) over Everton. 

Everyone is saying the same things about Tottenham, "They had a poor finish to the season. They are not a top club." This is rubbish. For one, Spurs did not have Dembele or Dele Alli at the end of the season. Secondly, they did not have CM/DM Wanyama or CF Janssen to provide quality depth off the bench. 

So, forget about last year, that doesn't matter anymore. Spurs do not have Dembele for the first 4 games, but they did bring in CM Wanyama from Southampton (a top class, highly underrated talent) to help with the loss of Dembele. Pochettino might start Mason over Wanyama tomorrow, but if he does that he's truly stubborn. But even if he does start Mason, Spurs should win this game outright. 

For one, Everton is really banged up. CF Lukaku is likely out. RB Coleman is likely out. DM Besic is out. New CB Ashley Williams is out. I would pay attention to Everton's announced XI before really pounding this game...but even with Everton's current projected XI, I'm confident in a Spurs away win.

For one, I like Spurs depth off the bench a lot more. New striker Vincent Janssen can spell Harry Kane in the last 10-20 minutes and provide a true goal threat off the bench...something Tottenham never had last season. Another attacking threat I like off the bench tomorrow for Spurs is attacking mid Josh Onomah, who will likely sub off AM Eriksen or AM Lamela. So the point here is even if the game is 0-0 or 1-1, I think this team can score goals WITHOUT Kane. 

Secondly, just pure talent on the pitch. Tottenham has the best center back pairing in Europe with Alderwield and a reportedly fit Vertonghen. Walker and Rose are fit for the flanks, and I am not confident about Everton's chances of scoring 2 or 3 goals tomorrow barring pure luck (which don't get me wrong, happens all the time). What this means is I think Koeman will counter Pochettino by starting Aaron Lennon and Kevin Mirallas. Spurs have the speed and size to deal with this counter tactic, and so I think  no matter what Everton does, they are neutralized tactically. 

Then you look at the middle of the pitch - this is where Spurs SHOULD dominate. If Poch starts Wanyama next to Dier with Alli behind Kane, they will control the match. James McCarthy and Gareth Barry just don't have the class to match Spurs. I love Barkley, but he can't do it all by himself. 

Everyone is shying away from Spurs because of how they finished and Kane's Euros performance...but that's why I take Spurs. They are all back under Pochettino and I think they will be pissed as to how they finished the season. This is a young team with a ton to prove. 

Prediction: Tottenham 2. Everton 1. 

2 units bet. More possibly could be bet based on favorable released XI's from the managers. 
 
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Posted: #4
My last game of the EPL Matchday 1 that I will be playing is Bournemouth vs. Manchester United. This will be a hedge for Bournemouth. 

United's stock is way too high right now. I could get into why I think Pogba is somewhat overrated and definitely overpriced (by about 30m GBP in my not-expert opinion), but he won't be playing this weekend at Bournemouth anyways. 

United's projected front 6 right now is: Ibra, Martial, Rooney, Lingard, Fellani, Carrick, Fellani. 

This front 6 has some holes. The first hole I want to talk about is Ibrahimovic. What an overrated player. He's a more marketable version of Andy Carroll at this point. This is not Ligue 1. The Premier League is a brutal league. His touch on the ball, pace, and passing is quite overrated right now. I'm not a fan of his and he was mediocre vs. Leicester in the Stupid Pointless Shield Game. Great goal, but who cares...did Benteke have a fantastic season after his sick goal in preseason? No he did not. 

I love Martial and I am a fan of Rooney in the #10 role, but Lingaard, Carrick, and Fellani all have me worried. They are not top players and Bournemouth has the quality to go toe-2-toe with United. 

For one, I like Jordan Ibe. I think he has more quality than Matt Richie and I think his pace will be a problem on the right flank. Secondly, I really like Lewis Cook who transferred from Leeds. Fantastic young talent and should have a good season. I think he can stablize Bournemouth's midfield against United. Add in a healthy Callum Wilson up top, and I don't think United's defense is perfect. 

For one, Eric Bailly was a massive signing but he isn't proven yet. Look at Mangala and Otamendi...just because you are a big money signing doesn't mean you can't be prone to mistakes or lack professionalism off the pitch. I'll believe it when I see it. When I watch Bailly in preseason I just see some lackadaisical body language and poor technique...but maybe I'm just being a hater. Who knows. 

All this said, I like the price for AFC B'mouth...and I like that Manchester United had one too many orgasms after the Stupid Pointless Shield Game. Everybody is ready to crown them 16-17 EPL Champions...but I'm not. On the road in Vitality Stadium will not be easy. 

Prediction: Manchester United 1. AFC Bournemouth 1. 

0.5 Units (+375) Bournemouth win. 
0.5 Units (+265) Draw.
 
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Posted: #5
GL this season 
 
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Posted: #6
GL.  Thanks for the post.  
 
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Posted: #7
My first parlay of the week will be posted here. Not sure how everyone else does parlays in soccer, but mine are extremely mathematically complicated. I'll try to explain so you'll understand why I do what I do. 

1) I believe in hedging. You have to respect randomness and soccer is an extremely random game. There is something to be said for taking a side, but sometimes I just want to reduce variance. 

2) In these hedges, I'll tend to throw in a draw to counter "worst case scenario referee/luck/injuries b.s." That game for me this week is Tottenham vs. Everton. Yes, I am confident Spurs will win, but I'm not guaranteeing it. Therefore, I'm throwing in the draw for +240 into the parlay hedge just in case. Now if Everton wins I'm completely screwed...but that's gambling. 

Three games I will be playing this week in my parlay hedge: 

A. Bournemouth at Manchester United 
B. Tottenham at Everton (hedging the draw)
C. Leicester City at Hull City

A. I am completely hedging the Bournemouth at Man United game. Doesn't make sense at first, but let me give my reasons. First, United should win this game. Won't be easy, but they should win it. It is Bournemouth, they are United. However, United is only -120 on the win. So even if I throw in Bournemouth +375 and Draw +265, then I will still make money on this parlay hedge. You will see this later on in mathematical terms.

B. Hedging the draw here, but if Spurs/Toffees end up a draw, I really don't mind breaking even overall on this parlay hedge, because I think there is a strong chances that Spurs dominate this contest. Therefore, I find the Spurs +145 win number profitable, and I'm hedging the Draw at +240. 

C. Leicester should pulverize Hull City. If this game ends up a draw or Hull City win...just count this as the all-time upset of the season. Whatever...you have to take a risk if you want to make 


Each Parlay Hedge will be numbered 1-6, with mathematical odds listed.

1: Bournemouth +375, Spurs +145, Leicester -110 = 21.2x (meaning it pays out 21.2 to 1)

2: BOU/UTD Draw +265, Spurs +145, Leicester -110 = 16.1x

3: United -120, Spurs +145, Leicester -110 = 7.6x

4: Bournemouth +375, TOT/EVE Draw +265, Leicester -110 = 10.9x

5: BOU/UTD Draw +265, TOT/EVE Draw +265, Leicester -110 = 22.7x

6. United -120, TOT/EVE Draw +265, Leicester -110 = 29.8x

I will be betting this Parlay Hedge for a total of 3 units and breaking it up between the 6 parlays. Remember, on parlays 4-6 I am only trying to break even - I don't care about making money on them. In parenthesis is the math you can do all of them on your own, I have a spreadsheet where I plug everything in.

1: 0.7 units to net 12.5 units. (0.7*21.2 - 2.3) = 12.5 untis
2: 0.8 units to net 10.7 units
3: 0.9 units to net 4.7 units
4: 0.3 units to net 0.6 units
5: 0.2 units to net 1.7 units
6: 0.1 units to net 0.1 units

So you can see I'm really hoping Bournemouth puts in a good performance because if they win/draw I get paid handsomely. Even if they lose and Spurs/Leicester win I still net 4.7 units which - hey I'll take that. 

If you all have any questions, feel free to ask. About to post my stay-aways. 


 
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Posted: #8
TYPO ALERT: The Tottenham/Everton draw is +240 not +265, but what I put into the parlay calculator on Vegas Insider was the +240 number so everything comes out correct. 
 
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Posted: #9
Sorry, I can't edit my posts on this stupid forum, and I f***ed up my parlay hedge. Parlays 4 and 6 are opposite...so I'll post it again here. Apologize for the confusion: 

4: United -120, TOT/EVE Draw +240, Leicester -110 = 10.9x

5: BOU/UTD Draw +265, TOT/EVE Draw +240, Leicester -110 = 22.7x

6. Bournemouth +375, TOT/EVE Draw +240, Leicester -110 = 29.8x
 
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Posted: #10
Stay Away #1: Swansea City (+220) at Burnley (+145) Draw (+230)


Why I like Swansea: Burnley is as cheap as they come. 8 hours ago it was reported they bought CM Steven Defour from Anderlecht for 8m euros, but who cares? It doesn't effect this match. I love Andre Gray, but I don't think he will have the supporting cast on this level to maintain that level of form. Basically, it comes down to "How can Burnley dominate this game and win by 2 goals?" And I just don't see it. Yes, Swansea will be without AM Ayew, AM Sigurdsson (fitness), and CB Williams, but they also added CM Leroy Fer and CF Llorente from Sevilla...they also added CF Borja Baston from Atletico but he won't be available. 

Why I like Burnley: Because Baston, Ayew, Sigurdsson, and Williams are not there. Swansea doesn't have a marquee signing (unless Fer is the next Kante) and they lost a ton of talent from last year's team. Morale should be high at Turf Moor. This will be a tough, tough game for the Swans to win. 

Why I AM PASSING: The numbers are where they should be completely. Just don't see any edge here...if Swansea had Baston (and let's assume he is good) and Sigurdsson, then I think there is value in a small hedge...but with the current projected XI's I think the number is fine. 

Pass
 
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Posted: #11
Stay Away #2: West Bromwich Albion (+330) at Crystal Palace (+100) Draw (+220)


Why I like WBA: Everyone obsesses over the summer transfer window - and that's important - but what is equally important is keeping your team together. WBA accomplished this for the most part only selling CB Chester to Aston Villa. The team's defense should still be solid, and I like the veteran leadership. The problem is

Why I like CP: WBA has minimal offensive talent. Berahino is going through one of his transfer fits again (Seriously, if his agent is reading this, just tell him to ball the **** out and then leave...but he hasn't had a meaningful season in 2 years.) and so all WBA have up front is Rondon. CP has added some good talent with GK Mandanda and RW Andros Townsend. I am personally a big fan of Townsend's when he is getting regular game time. This should be a good fit for him. Also, a healthy Zaha at LW should ensure some goal scoring chances, assuming AM Bolaise is out (potential transfer). The rest of the team matches up well in the midfield and on defense. 

Why I AM PASSING: WBA can give us fits here in this contest. All they are going to do is sit back for 90 minutes, and I am not sold Palace has the skill in central midfield and back line to pick them apart. I could see them making a mistake that leads to a goal or two. The CP +100 number doesn't do it for me...I'd need to see 140-150 to make a play here, and that's just not going to happen. I know I'll be mad tomorrow when Palace wins by 2 goals, but that's just gambling. I have 3 other games I love a lot more than this one so it's just a bad #.

Pass
 
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Posted: #12
Stay Away #3: Liverpool (+215) at Arsenal (+140) Draw (+245)

Why I like Liverpool: Just wanted to say I like L'pool much more than I like Arsenal in this matchup. CF Giroud is out, which means AM Sanchez or AM Walcott likely to start for Arsenal up top...either way it's a recipe for disaster. Sanchez has to play on left wing to be effective defensively and be effective in the link-up play, but if Walcott starts then they will be lucky to score one goal. Secondly, the currently projected center backs for Arsenal are Nacho Monreal and/or Callum Chambers and/or Rob Holding. Ugh. Where to start? Monreal is a LB not a CB...Chambers and Holding are Championship-level performers. Last, AM Mesut Ozil is out, with Aaron Ramsey set to start in the #10. No Ozil and no Giroud means this team will greatly struggle to score a goal. They don't have the center back pairing to link play with the midfield consistently...really concerned about Arsenal now.

Aside from the anti-Arsenal argument, Liverpool has been hot in preseason obliterating Barcelona 4-0 (and I'm sorry but even Barca's backups are better than most). A front 3 of Coutinho-Firmino-Sane with Wijnaldum off the bench is class. The 3 central mids will likely be Henderson-Can-Lallana. My greatest concerns for Liverpool all season will be the back 5...but in this match it might not matter. If Liverpool can terrorize Arsenal's back 4 with the high press, then this game might be over if they can go up 2 goals. .

Why I like Arsenal: Arsenal is at home. Liverpool will be starting new CB Klavan as Sakho and Matip are likely out. Arsenal still has a lot of quality: Cech, Bellerin, Sanchez, Xhaka. Arsenal has lost to Liverpool once in the last 10 games. 

I probably shouldn't be passing on this game, but at +215 the number just isn't there for a road game at the Emirates. Arsenal is still Arsenal...I just won't be surprised if Klopp's unit murders them. Out of all my passes, this one will probably be the one I regret. All signs point towards a Liverpool win.
 
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Posted: #13
Great stuff McGuire 

I really love DRAW in Arsenal game today but still giving a lot of though before I pull the trigger. 

I definitely love Leicester and Southampton today. 

BOL 
 
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Posted: #14

Happens. Leicester City was abominable...shocking performance. First Champions to lose in opening week since 1989. I understand it is Hull's first game back, but come on. Obvious hangover, but I'd still take that number again. Wasn't like I was betting a -200 road favorite or anything, especially with Hull's lack of summer signings and coaching situation. 

As far as Spurs go, I think I really underrated Everton - of course we had no clue what they would look like under Koeman. Morale was high in first half. Got lucky on that first goal off the free kick (Spurs set piece defense has been awful for a while though). I really like what I saw from Everton. They didn't even have CB Williams, CF Lukaku, DM Besic, or RB Coleman. AM Deulofeu was outstanding at striker. New DM/CM Idrissa Gueye (Aston Villa) had a very solid outing. The team looked positive and the passing was crisp - defensively composed. Don't think they will miss John Stones with Williams in. Academy CB Mason Holgate also had a good performance. Just think Everton deserves a nod today...Tottenham is a very good team. 

As far as Spurs are concerned, they didn't get going until '55 when CF Janssen was subbed on for DM Dier. Spurs dropped Kane back (he played like garbage for first '55) and Janssen opened things up. Alli looked more positive and Eriksen got involved more. 

Everton's GK Stekelenberg made a couple class saves to maintain the draw. One less save and it is probably a Spurs 2-1 win like I predicted. Also worth nothing, GK Lloris' exit burned a sub for Tottenham and limited their options in 2H. 

Not upset with my pick...+140 was a good number considering how many players were out for Everton. 

Thinking about coming back tomorrow with Liverpool. We'll see how it plays out. Still mad at Leicester 
 
 
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Posted: #15
I hope you stick around here, even though the results didn't particularly go your way, the insight and write up's you did were phenomenal. You will turn it around. BOL this season. 
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