midweek plays (UCL/UEL/Conf, Copa).....

just tossing up what discussed

due to everyones plans for the holiday will get the Serie A up early next week.

UCL: its still early, not spending much time analyzing these matches next week; wont change mind much anyways barring any injuries. before begin as discussed... in the Qtrs/Semis its incredibly difficult to beat the same opponent twice. especially in one weeks time. half part due to the opponent skill level, the other half due to situation of NOT needing win the 2nd leg. in any case, as Aless mentioned its happened just 8 times in past 5 years (24 matchups)
as always, "Captain Obvious" trend is now 34-3 since started this last decade, in regards to the team winning first leg on road towards advancing. funny thing is, Pool & City didnt even win their 2nd legs @home last round. anyways, Pool & Real fit the trend next week but prices are silly.

these pretty much falls in line with how feel the flow of these 2nd legs tend to be played. not spending any further time on them.
#2 Teams whom won first leg on road by 2+ goals, theres been less than 3 goals in reverse fixture. UCL, 9-2 past 3 years (23-7 in past decade); defend, protect lead, save energy. hit both with Pool & City R16. Pool & Real this round.

Liverpool/Benefica U2.5 @+190, U3.5 @-115
Real/Chelsea U2.5 @+110

#3 Atletico/ManC goal in first 31 minutes? Yes @-108. now 9-2 as we didnt get it last round as City didnt need do anything with a 5 goal advantage. even still, they created numerous chances. Peps MO still hasnt changed the past decade, put foot on throats, score or be scored upon early.

thoughts on other one:
Munich/Villareal - Emerys squad extremely well coached, all 11 what we call 'in-tune' in regards to their positioning on the pitch. and they did to Bayern what they did to us, just frustrated them. Bayerns MF couldnt commit all-in on the attack as they like to due to Villareals counters. im thinking this might end up being waay closer if the Liga side put in another performance like the last one because that wasnt a fluke. but im not going against Bayern @home. for the record, this might surpise a few, Bayern have won just 3 of their past 12 KO home matches by 2+ goals. so with the +2 sitting at '+' money my waaay too early thoughts look tempting.

UEL: Pending future, West Ham outright @+1250
Lyon/WH - in no mood hedging a Qtr, whom advances gets either Frankfurt or Barca so just need let it ride.

Atalanta/Leipzig - as you can tell with their domestic performance, Gasperinis lads going "all-in" with this thing. they might have beaten the other Bunde squad last round but keep in mind Atalanta has won just 6 of their 17 european comps @home the past 3-4 years. and because of Leip style - especially on the road - this has a good chance of blowing over that total. i think this line has opened waaay too low for next week; do a runner here, O2.5 @-115, 3.5 @+195

Conference:
Roma/Bodo - this is what happens when you put the locker room entrances directly across from another. you guys KNOW.... years ago theyd have "solved" that problem right then and there in the hallways and not involved the policia. Roma(Mou) all fired up for this one. Bodo is going to try to park it but this should still have way more juice attached. Roma/Bodo O2.5 @-128

Womens WC: decided to unload on the ladies.
Switz/Italy - our ladies about to do what the men couldnt.... after thumping Lithuania last night, tho just a point will clinch qualification for both on tuesday Milena sending out a pretty strong side and they should return the favor for their only loss since euros a few years ago. on top of that, by winning hte group theyll get to avoid France/Germany/Swedes come group stage pairings, so theres a ton of motivation right there. h*ll, our next match is vs France in euro opener. Italy to win @+102 and tossing little more on that.

Copa Lib: these lines all juiced up.

Catolica -1 @+120 ,Colo Colo -1.5 @+110 - Peruvian fades.
combo Catolica + Colo @+122

all 3 Bolivian clubs coming down from the heavens and visit Gaucho/Samba squads. not good. combo all 3 home sides -1 @-130, -1.5 @+277

Penarol/Olimpia O2.5 @+123 - tailing. those rivalries between clubs from these countries are always nasty. might toss some on card prop when lines come out.

(taking a chance here)
Atletico/America - id imagine derbies out there are similar as everywhere else but how'd these two end up in same Group? Atletico won domestic title last year, while America had to go through qualifiers. not only do they share same city. but same pitch/locker room too. and theres only been 4 goals in past 5 meetings. theyve played 6 times in the past year and America has found net just once. and America hasnt even won any of their 5 Copa matches. Atletico -1 @-115

have a good week and GL to all 

would’ve loved to see you on Chelsea today 

GL papa

going to tail u on liverpool under, love that stat

replied to your pm

Spec  

love that Liverpool under.  Think that’s a 1-0/2-0 game at best. 

also like the prop, “goal in the first 31 minutes” in the City game.  Think we see some goals and btts there. 

Hope all is well friend 

Excellent work down south yesterday, Spec. Boca played up a man the entire 2nd half and squeezed by with the ET goal. Game drove me nuts but got it done. Hala Madrid! Good luck today my friend, hope all is well 

a bit of time, just going to update and reply + add a play.

Block, forget about chelsea, im still kicking self for not tossing some on Vill
Boll at this juncture, i tend to just toss out the teams playing and play the 'situation'. truth of the matter in that these matches can go either way and make us look pretty dumb at times. got to wonder how much Pool & City have left in their tanks after Sunday night. guess we'll find out soon.

DTP as always. as told Boll, Pool can bang in 5 if they want to. dont think anyone would disagree with me. in the other one, it still comes down to converting chances. but Pep hasnt changed strategically in over a decade. we'll see.

WCI hope all is well with self & fam. yeah, nice evening down there, sets up nicely for those combos. didnt see the matches but if what you say abt Boca is true then theres nothing new there.

Real/Chelsea U2.5 @+110 (L)
Italy to win @+102 (W)
Catolica -1 @+120 (P)
combo Catolica (w) + Colo @+122

Boca (w), Palmeiras(w), Paran  (-1 @-130, -1.5 @+277)
Penarol/Olimpia O2.5 @+123 (W)

Liverpool/Benefica U2.5 @+190, U3.5 @-115
Atletico/ManC goal in first 31 minutes? Yes @-108
Colo Colo -1.5 @+110
Pending future, West Ham @+1250
Atalanta/Leipzig O2.5 @-115, 3.5 @+195
Roma/Bodo O2.5 @-128
Atletico Mineiro -1 @-115

adding:
Madrid/Pool O4.5 cards @-112 

GL to all 

Spec-'Pool under looks solid--rolling with Copa Lib this pm with Colo Colo parlay with Asuncion-juiced but I'll take it!

Good luck!

Liverpool/Benfica goal fest of course 

watching Atalanta doing the same thing theyve been doing all season, trying to make the "perfect" pass and wasting those odd man attacks. 

doc    hope all is well and tks fer stopping by.  took all of 15 minutes to realize that Pool match wasnt going to stay under.   combos in Copa still alive so we'll see how that goes.    curious of your thoughts on the FA semis this wknd (see below, already tossed some on it) 

Block   thats what the CL can do to one. can make ones thoughts look pretty stupid at times. got a split overall with that trend so cant really complain. 

hit the card prop to help matters a little.     i think Roma might get knocked out given their trip to Naples for the holiday wknd. 

added Roma/Bodo O4.5 cards @-115.  tho there were just 2 in first leg, given what happened at the end id imagine things will get chippy out there.  when Bodo visited during Groups all  5 yellows handed out in final half hour, expect to see the same here. 

FA Cup - just doing the eye test here and made this play as the match about to end; wasnt even aware of this till yesterday. its never smart to make plays on emotion or quickly but.... Pool pick @+120 this weekend. to be honest, it really doesnt matter whom City would be playing. while Foden was taking a 2 minute nap before getting his head wrapped, Kevin hobbled off, Gud had enough & followed shortly after, Walker gutted it out too. glancing over at the other screen and Pool looked like they were having fun out there, hardly any fouls in that match and Firm almost kicked Mo in the face too. it reminds me a few years back when CR7 was around; you guys remember, had a two-leg lovefest with Diegos lads and i know this on memory (no need to check) played in Genoa and were royally thumped, the cleansheet variety too. dead legs. thats what Atletico does to ya. and as someone mentioned, Chelsea barely squeaked by a lower divison club in the FA last year after facing these guys. no disrespect to Benefica but cazzo!!! Atletico-Pool-Atletico-Pool? in 11 days?? i get it, its the FA Cup semis, im not expecting City to simply roll over, besides, that roster is DEEP & talented. i swear i should toss some on the outrights. 

GL to all 

Spec-I agree--I took 'Pool to advance -106; yeah crazy 11 day stretch for City as you mentioned and sure they won't roll over, but CL and winning the Premiership more on Pep's radar; City got outta Dodge and advanced but definitely Atletico took something out of them;  just my 2 cents...good luck this weekend!