2012-2013 Soccer Record: 196-169 +53.19 units
2013-14 YTD: Soccer Record: 120.5-100 +27.75 units
I haven’t been able to post on the boards for a little bit but have been logging all my twitter plays since I last posted. I don’t like to just dish out plays on covers without rationale. Those of you that know my style know that I like to provide rationale when I can and given the time restraints I’ve had of late, I’ve had to stick to twitter where simply tweeting the play has sufficed. I had some time today so decided to write up my two plays, both in La Liga action.
1. Getafe v Athletic Bilbao over 2.5 -106 2 units
2. Getafe +165 Athletic Bilbao 2 units
I think we have a good over situation in this game based on the statistical and situational numbers as well as some great value on the home team. Those that want to play it a bit safer might want to consider Getafe on the pk -106 line so that your stake is refunded if the game ends in a draw.
First my commentary on the over.
Getafe has seen their home games go 3-1 over 2.5 goals this season which equals Athletic’s road over tally of 3-1 in their 4 road games. (Combined 6-2 over in each teams’ respective home/away scenarios) Of those 3 overs each for both teams, 2 of them saw 4 or more goals. Also, first half scoring is important when trying to evaluate the probability of an over and in Getafe’s 3 home overs, 2 of them saw 3 goals by halftime while the other saw 2 goals. As for Athletic, all 3 of their road overs saw at least 2 goals scored by the halftime whistle.
This is significant because of we look at Getafe’s road record we note that the under actually dominates (4-1 under 2.5 in 5 road games) as it does for Athletic who has seen the under go 3-2 in their 5 road games. So on a situational basis, if we are going to play Getafe games to go over as we are Athletic games to go over, it seems that it is best to do so when Getafe is at home and Athletic away. Getafe home games are averaging 3.25 total goals while Athletic’s road games are averaging 3.5.
Both teams find themselves in the top 6 of the table in Spain. Athletic has fared fairly well for over bettors on the road v top 6 teams going 7-3 over 2.5 in their last 10 in that spot with 6 of those 7 overs seeing 4 or more goals. As for the home side Getafe, the over is split at 5-5 over 2.5 against top 6 opposition at home in their last 10 but 3 of those 5 saw 4 or more goals so chances are if we see goals, we’ll see plenty.
As for the side play, Athletic Bilbao comes into this game with some notable injuries and might find it hard to net more than 1 (I have them scoring a goal in this game) and it looks like their streak of allowing 2 goals or more in their last 3 road games might continue. Athletic have been poor travellers in La Liga. Getafe have won 8 of their last 13 home matches while Athletic Bilbao have lost 9 of their last 10 away matches against top-six teams.
With the home side having the manpower at their disposal and the visitors going with a patch work line-up due to injuries, I anticipate a Getafe win in this game. 4 spreadsheet runs gave me 2-1, 2-1, 3-1 and 3-0 for Getafe.
Good luck of you decide to tail.
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