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Peru vs Para over odds dropped

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Odds went from O2.5 -165 to -130 over night on bovada, seems fishy to me such a big drop 16ish hours before the game what you think?
 
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Posted: #2
noticed something similar. Would love to hear am ecplanation
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
noticed something similar. Would love to hear am explanation
 
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Posted: #4
pretty substantial, we'll see
 
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Posted: #5
The Over 2.5 is @ 1.87 now.......Seems like a decent price to jump on.  
 
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Posted: #6
Yeah its really strange especially considering its a 3rd place match and not a Final where defense is such a priority.  Under 3.5 bettors early sure got a gift with this line today though...They hit 3 and could have both sides, almost unheard of in soccer match over betting....I mean you catch the opposite sometimes going the other way from over 2.5, to then under 3 or 3.5 right before matches because people hop on the over....but not usually the opposite like today.

I still like the over 2.5 at even...

Good luck 
 
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Posted: #7
This is insane. Something has to be up
 
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Posted: #8
The total has been yanked off my board altogether
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Just dropped another -20 on Bovada, this is insane, I do not feel good about this over at all
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10

Nothing fishy about it. 

Over bettors are counting on the strong trend to the over in third place games.

In the World Cup, it's 10-0 Over 2.5 all the way back to 1978.

In Copa America, it's 6-2 Over 2.5 since 1993. (5-0 last five.)

 

The under bettors are looking at the H2H between the two clubs.

8-5 Under 2.5 overall.

7-3 Under 2.5 in WCQ and COA games.

5-0 Under 2.5 last five WCQ and COA games.

 

More money is coming in on the Under. Nothing fishy about it.

Good luck.

 

 
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Posted: #11
Um ok. Get real - conflicting trends and h2h stats conflict all the time and almost never result in this kind of swing/movement. And it's not like both factors weren't known before the line was set.

I'm a clown who got over 3 at -103. My book had over 3 set at +190 when the match started. I'm screwed. Even if the game hits 4 or more goals just a terrible line and play from my end. I could have risked a lot less to win a lot more.

Very few times do I feel r*ped before the fukin game starts but this is ridiculous. Praying for a miraculous push at 3 goals but probably won't get close.

Anyone feeling the same way?

BOL to all.
 
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Posted: #12
End of 1st half and no goals. Hmmm..
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Feelthemo:

Um ok. Get real - conflicting trends and h2h stats conflict all the time and almost never result in this kind of swing/movement. And it's not like both factors weren't known before the line was set.

I'm a clown who got over 3 at -103. My book had over 3 set at +190 when the match started. I'm screwed. Even if the game hits 4 or more goals just a terrible line and play from my end. I could have risked a lot less to win a lot more.

Very few times do I feel r*ped before the fukin game starts but this is ridiculous. Praying for a miraculous push at 3 goals but probably won't get close.

Anyone feeling the same way?

BOL to all.

Feel your pain but you should have done your research man, Paraguay are TOUGH defensively, and have a DEFENSE first mentality,(thats how they win games!!).  Looking at them settled back vs Peru is kinda sad for a 3rd place game, but It should have been expected. Peru is doing their part so far, but their main weapon Guerrero is getting tripled team, and aside from him they got a young Reyna who is no Farfan(BENCHED, suppsoed injury)


 
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Posted: #14
Any over when Paraguay is playing is suicidal.  Peru is no Argentina, watching try to beat them in the air is hilarious.  They way to beat them is ground passing, walls, etc.  Can only hope Peru to score so Paraguay can come on strong!!
 
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Posted: #15
That was one of the most pathetic halves of soccer I have watched lol they aren't even attempting to hide it
 
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Posted: #16
So is rigged for the under? No way man Paraguay are known for stinkers unless a team tears them up early then they open up and take more risks.
 
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Posted: #17
This one definitely stunk a little bit to me...MAYBE the UNDER was being bet more but its not possible that is was being bet that heavily. That line moved A LOT. I hear you Rave Green, but this was a substantial line movement. I'm not saying that the game is fixed, but I can't ignore a movement like that, for me I can take a hint and lay off...
 
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Posted: #18
1-0 Peru, garbage they are playing futbol now
 
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Posted: #19
Peru came to play Paraaguay came to....wtf they came to sweat I guess and try to defend.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by Feelthemo:

Um ok. Get real - conflicting trends and h2h stats conflict all the time and almost never result in this kind of swing/movement. And it's not like both factors weren't known before the line was set.

You want me to get real? Um OK.

It's pretty obvious you were not aware of the H2H trends between these two countries, and just blindly played the Over based on the 3rd place game trend.

50 and 60 cent line moves happen a lot in leagues and games with a low betting handle, that ends up with one sided action. Like MLS, for example.

Good luck on your next wager.

 
 
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:

This one definitely stunk a little bit to me...MAYBE the UNDER was being bet more but its not possible that is was being bet that heavily. That line moved A LOT. I hear you Rave Green, but this was a substantial line movement. I'm not saying that the game is fixed, but I can't ignore a movement like that, for me I can take a hint and lay off...

I agree with what you are saying, Zamigo6.

I feel that the bookies set the line high, 3.0 instead of 2.5, based on the 3rd place game Over trend. More than likely, a large betting group, pounded the Under 3.0, based on the H2H trends. (Now 6-0 to the Under in WCQ and COA games.)

If Brazil had been in the 3rd place game, it would have most likely gone over 3.0. But, they choked in the QF's.

Peru and Paraguay showed poor finishing touch throughout in this game.

Good luck in the Gold Cup.

 
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