Sat/Sun plays (Serie A, B, and others)......

This forum just a shell of its former self. ehhhh....

not much time, came in to add a play. cant find thread thread I thought put up, then realize must have forgot. not good.

heres Round 22 stuff:

Round 22: as always, take a peek at the clubs active midweek. agreed, in a way it's funny how Fabio still cant land a job and rumors of Genoa sacking Shev appear to be true. that didnt take long, feel bad for him.

Pending:
Brescia outright @+145
Empoli/Venezia O2.5 @-120
Sass/Verona O2.5 @-135

Salernitana/Lazio - too juiced for anything. taking Mr. Selfish to find the net here vs the worst backline in Serie A (statistically) as throughout his career he loves these 'stat padding' chances vs newbies. and hosts have a fairly long treatment table. for fun, Cirro 2+ goals @+250.

Sampdoria/Torino - our little brothers dont like those trips down south. have won just once in past 10 visits (3 finished level); which includes that trip just before the holdidays when booted from Coppa. tho happily backed them last wknd, not sure why theyre opening odds on, they still have a bunch of missings (various reasons), and there has been just 1 season sweep since both in top flight. besides, wouldnt advise touching a team to grab anything wiht just 1 win and 4 goals on their 9 travels this year. PASS. but a nice prop if you want to take a stab at it, i dont even know if hes going to be in starting lineup but: Rincon to be booked @+200. he didnt leave on friendly terms last month as their locker room was not a happy place. tho healthy, had been in Jurics bench all season; their former captain should see some minutes and things might get ugly. (60+ fouls, 13 yellows, 1 red in their two meetings thus far this season)
EDIT: Rincon indeed seems to be getting the start.

Juventus/Udine - agreed, this looks like another one of our customary 2-0 scorelines so might toss something on that once lineups confirmed. but pay heed to that several logged the full 120 last night and many others spent quite a bit of energy. Udine still in a mess and at this time still dont know whom theyll be sending. if the -1 can come down perhaps its worth a shot. but just PASS. better value elsewhere.  EDIT: Paulo getting the start, dont touch sides but yeah, the -1 looks one of those 'push at worst' things.    tossed some on our TT O2 @+105 (same reasoning)

Roma/Cagliari - Island boys dont like visiting Olimpico, havent won there in quite some time. did beat them last April but keep in mind that was right in middle of the Serie A cluster-bleep 3-in-7 schedule and sandwiched between Atalanta & their trip to Old Trafford. so I give Darth Vader a pass on that one. Mou not a happy camper, banned media from practices and they just blew a 2 goal lead vs us conceding 4 in the process. so 300 juice is about right here. stay away from sides, tho Mou is almost assuredly going to focus on the back after last weekend but im taking the over anyways. these two have had some wild ones of late. theres been 3+ goals in the 2nd half alone in each of the past 4 meetings. so Ill take a shot at the O3.5 @+154, and that 2nd half line shouldnt be anywhere near evens so toss some on the O1.5 @-111 2nd half as well and pray as Cagliari have conceded 2+ in 8 of their 10 roadies anyways.

Atalanta/Inter - now THIS is a biggie, in regards to its importance. I agree, everything is laid out perfectly for Gasps side; Inter in a nasty 7 day stretch of Lazio/Juve and here; coming off a chippy 120 minute session vs us as well. Gasps side can pull within 5 with the 'w' but big problem for them....scared melons. (in north america I believe they call it: mental block) they cant beat Inter, they dont know how. just one win in past 10 meetings; had the lead in San Siro back in Sept and blew that too. so as tempting as those 200s might be Im staying away. we're split down the middle of the O/U. for Inter, I just feel theyve been playing extremely well. efficient, and tough as nails in the back. they still have only conceded 1 goal in past 7 Serie A matches, but keenly aware Gasps boys a different animal. but with their 3rd in 7 days (their entire starting 11 practically played 90 the other day too) with everyone split down the middle, for me, just dont see Inzaghi wanting to run up & down the pitch like last September where there were 40+ shots combined. taking a chance at the U2.5 @+150

going to wait for lineups for the Monday nighters.

Serie B:
cancel the Parma play. match postponed.

ACN:
didnt do the scorelines this round, very nicely done with the draw yesterday. just taking one on Sunday, Tunisia TT O1.5 @-105. for remainder of tourney, pair up the game total 1.5s to reduce juice in 3rd rounders (Im not touching those countries whom already advanced tho).

GL to all and have nice wknd. 

davey    quickly.  hope all is well and thanks for stopping by.   heres to a successful '22 

@specimen24

 100% right Spec forum is a shell of whst it used to be. Super super stuff here spec. I'm on that juve tt over 2

@daveyt25

Only took 10 minutes 

Spec

Dang Spec...what took so long for your Immobile +250 to hit?  ??????

So wild... I will bet that as soon as someone saw this post, and then you mentioned anything about Tunisia? I could count the people who would wonder if you were me in disguise? LoL, Just, wow.

Hey dude? Yeah uh, we need to talk it seems because I have only followed this Italia stuff since the 80s and I run a discord channel that you might just shit yourself when you see what I do in those 2 countries.

I don't know how to message you so let me know how I can reach out to you. Ciao! In Bocca Al Lupo!

Spec-great stuff as usual--Mr. Selfish came through in the clutch as usual  ;

got that Sass/Verona over 2.5 bet--yeah tough to bet Cagliari with only one win off the Island---still looking at that match...good luck!

@docpj72

 Thoughts on Milan?

@NaciremaDream

 tough to eat the -350 ML juice, but I took HT/FT -120--good luck!

Spec- Glad to see you’re posting with a bit more frequency. I missed these insights— very well done on Inter match. 

If you’re interested in joining a more thoughtful betting community, I’m in a Slack group that I think you’d really really enjoy. It’s an amazing space to bounce ideas and get feedback from some very very knowledgeable soccer minds that I know you’d appreciate. If interested send me a DM (not that I ever check them lol)

cheers 

any seri A action today ?

What do we have today Spec don’t leave us hanging 

quickly here.  update and get tonights thoughts up:

Brescia @+145 (W)
Empoli/Venezia O2.5 @-120 (L)
Sass/Verona O2.5 @-135 (W)
Cirro 2+ goals @+250 (W)
Rincon to be booked @+200 (L)
Juve TT O2 @+105 (P), 2-0 @+550 (W)
Roma/Cagliari O3.5 @+154, O1.5 @-111 (2nd half) (L, L)
Atalanta/Inter U2.5 @+150 (W)
Tunisia TT O1.5 @-105 (W)

decent weekend. 

I-got
davey that was quick.
ldjarn there used to be a ton of knowledgeable, country specific posters whom for various reasons simply moved on. its normal with an open forum i guess.
kind
Ben
mact
Rain i doubt if anyone will be confused. GL with future plays.
Doc another 'normal' early one. should have known better with Mou whenver his club concedes a bunch in previous match. feel bad for Pellegrini. work hard to get back on pitch and then reinjure the leg in diff spot.
Buck Inter played as hoped, so got forunate there. appreciate it. outside of fantasy group and daily life/fam routine just dont have much time.
Viking, get that up in a sec.

Milan/Spezia - agreed. not sure if want to do this again, those 4 digits tempting. tho the situation is basically the same as vs Spallettis lads before the holiday, its also very different. reasons being two of Milans Scudetto contenders finished level and dropped pts last night; and when you can gain ground vs TWO of them in one Round you just have to take advantag of that so motivation should be through the roof for Milan. but still.... Pioli giving Zlat the start, but holy h*ll - Tonali suspended, Kjaer/Kessie/Toure/Pell/Romag (and i think I missed a few) arent are out. I HOPE the get all 3 but got to take a shot at Spezia +1.5 @+104. AC struggled badly vs Genoa in the Coppa last week. but I like this one better and joing the wagon (late, i know) will there be a goal in first 24 mins? Yes @-111. Mottas MO on road has been to try to jump on everyone early and try to hold out; theres been a goal before the 20th in 7 of their 9 roadies.

Bologna/Napoli - Ospina,Lorenzo,Kou still out, thats 3/4 of their backbone. Dries just played the full 120 the other night so I seriously doubt he will even see time. Osh looks like he might get some minutes but hes not @100% and I seriously doubt if he will still have his aggressiveness. they conceded 3 goals with a man+ advantage the other day. Bologna always play hard for Mihal so Im going against the group and take a shot at the O2.5 @-110 here (and pray)

Fiorentina/Genoa - Genoa just sacked Shev (shame on them). winless since Sept (18 matches), and havent won in Florence since previous century I think (another way of looking at it tho is that these two have finished level 5 straight time and 6 of the past 7 visits from Genoa). most were ugly low-scoring clunkers. but a 'w' here and Viola can pull level for that european slot. I dont like the juice so will take a shot at the Viola HT/FT @-105

 ACN: as mentioned, just combine the 1.5s for 3rd rounders:
Monday: @+126
Tues: Group B @+127, Group C @+128
Wed: @-103
Thurs: Group E: @+185, Group F: @+116

GL to all 

Ref robs Milan of the win. Why not let the ball roll for 2 seconds, you can always five that yellow after the play is over. Undeserved loss for Milan, but you won’t hear any Inter fans complaining about it. Great call on Spezia Spec. 

@specimen24

 Hey, been reading your stuff for a while and as a fan of the beautiful game all good reads. Helps me in my own decisions as well. 

Had an unrelated question for you but couldn’t reach out privately. Soccer related. Reach out and be well. 

What a call on Spezia Spec! Sprinkled some in on them at +975. Thank as always for your time and insight. I know it’s not what it was around here anymore, but I’m not sure you realize how many people are on this forum checking in for your Italy writeups and plays day in and day out. I sure am one. Hope to see you around today!

just updating and let this slide. 

Rain , crazy ending but way I see it is AC put themselves in that spot the way they blew chances in first half. but its safe to say Marco wont be getting any calls to hold the whistle for a bit of time ehh?
Kon
gab hit them over the holidays down in Naples so yeah, a wee-bit annoyed for not growing a pair and tossing some on them last night.

ACN:
Monday: @+126 (W)
Spezia +1.5 @+104 (W), goal in first 24 mins? Yes @-111 (L)
Bologna/Napoli O2.5 @-120 (L)
Viola HT/FT @-105 (W)