Sat/Sun plays (Serie A + others....)

Zlat cracked a Covid joke the other night.             classless.         (in his defense he DID issue a sincere apology). but given everything this region has had to endure since March, i mean... not trying to act like it was worse than anywhere else. but I dont think theres a single family whom hasnt lost someone by this (or knew someone close), i know because im one of them. and he should have been sensitive to that. so to hear someone shed Covid in a light-hearted way? sometimes staying silent is best.

Serie B Draw Festival: thy annual adventure. first of 2 Rounds (20 matches), everyone gets to play at home. League is no longer the 'draw' capital of europe but we are still in Top 3. heres to the early season ineptitude. 7 results = "+" side.

***edit*** hit first one of season as a typical scoreless clunker earlier.

Monza/SPAL @+240 (W)
Brescia/Ascoli @+235
Cosenza/Entella @+235
Frosinone/Empoli @+220
Lecce/Pordenone @+260
Pescara/Chievo @+220
Salernitana/Reggina +242
Venezia/Vicenza @+245
Cremonese/Cittadella +210
Reggiana/Pisa @+210

will put up Serie A card + UCL fades in a bit. but for the most part, "observation mode" this wknd.

UCL-fades: the 2nd legs of the final Qualifier round are next week; and as mentioned earlier this week the monetary gain these clubs can get for advancing into Group Stage is simply too big to ignore. Covid has hit everyone pretty hard so any extra $$$ coming in which is available is pretty freaking important from the financial side of things. on the pitch? it would allow these clubs to be able to afford the players they want in the transfer markets as well as attract talent within their country, even sometimes "steal" their rivals best players (everyone wants to play in the UCLs). but its also worth mentioning, the biggest drawback is the fact that the skill discrepency between 1st place/last place in these leagues is 5x wider than the Big Boy leagues. sometimes just just "showing up" is good enough to win (last year, almost all these teams still won, but narrowly) In any case, coaches would be pretty stupid to NOT rest their best players and risk injury, and if the are in there, they wont be going 100%
***some of the leagues governing bodies have allowed their teams to postpone their matches to a later date***

(all on Saturday): dialing down the risk with these
Slavia/Slovacko +1.5 @-105
Midtjylland/Randers +1/2 @+160
Ried/Salzburg +1.5 @+175
Volos/PAOK +1100, +480, +1.5 @+102
Sochi/Krasnador +254, +265
Olympiakos/Panaitolkos +1.5 @+110
Molde/Sandjeford +600, +425
Gent/Leuven +575, +400
Minai/Kiev +1100, +500, +1.5 @+112

Serie A:

Inter/Fiorentina - this is a NASTY season-opener for Inter. the fact that the line OPENED below 200s is testament to the strength of their opponent Viola (whom i took a shot with to finish in Top 6). whom have been a thorn to Inter the past 3 years, 4 draws in 6 games with just a 9-7 goal difference. and Viola 'finalized' Inters Scudetto hopes in July holding them to a scoreless draw in San Siro - that match "officially" ruined Inters chances to catch Juve. and i can guarantee you Conte has reminded them of that. got to take a PASS on this, with soo many new additions, might take Inter a bit of time to develop cohesion. or not...... PASS.

Sassuolo -1 @+135 - this would be a "hammer' status if it was a few rounds later. but HOME OPENERS for newly promoted clubs is a BIG thing -especially for someone(Spezia) whom hasnt been in Serie A for a few decades. but due to construction of their new stadium this match was moved. Sass had a draw last week as massive amount were in quarantine status; theyre all cleared for this wknd. so ill take this number as class should hopefully prevail. push at worst.

Samp/Benevento - when newly promoted visitors last participated in Serie A few years ago they were close to breaking the record for goals conceded. fast forward and Benevento is not your 'normal' newly promoted team, they went shopping during transfers and have a bunch of former Serie A caliber players on roster which should help them avoid relegation. Samp looked terrible vs Juve, with better accuracy, Christian could have banged in a few more. the fact they arent juiced in their home opener vs a "newbie" is a 'tell' as books smartened up here. going to take a shot here. Benevento +1/2 @-115, outright @+280

Cagliari/Lazio - visiting the island is never fun. and Lazio have played like cr*p the entire preseason. last year they needed TWO goals during injury time to grab the 'w'. PASS.

Torino/Atalanta over 1.5 @-120 (2nd half) with Totinos opponent here, its a good time to jump back on this trend.

Napoli/Genoa - home side unbeaten in past 15+ H2H's (11 wins in there). so the 300s are justified. PASS

Verona/Udinese - after watching last week, i still think these guys going to drop (Verona). and they now have boatload of injuries in the back. Udine unfortunately looks like theylle be a relegation dogfight as well. this smells like a big time draw; theres just been ONE goal in past 3 H2Hs nad actually, Udinese havent lost in past 6 meetings. so ill gladly take Udinese pick @-105

Crotne/Milan - PASS. Milan "should" win but its too early to be paying juice on a HC when theyre on road this early in season. Zlat out, and they just played Thursday night. good thing this is a cupcake for them.

Roma/Juve - (off topic) I love this  <tears of joy streaming down thy cheeks> last week Darth Vader actually played to a scoreless draw with Verona; but because the knuckleheads used an ineligible player they were docked pts and Verona credited with a 3-0 win. i probably shouldnt be soo happy as this might help Verona survive come years end......... nahhhhhhhh........ IM HAPPY!!!!!!
we always have a hard time down there, and with it being the 2nd round the "festivities" have started early this year. they have some of the most annoying fans you will ever encounter. beat us in our backyard in the season-ender recently, a game where we used our youth team. doesnt matter to them. and ive been reminded of this all week long. and Totti yakking away - like clockwork every year. couldnt believe what i saw last week, fast-forwad, high press, speed in the middle. if we play anything like that on Sunday I simply cannot see this result staying low. and Dzeko was inches from signing with us, but a hang-up with Milliks trade caused this to fall apart. Roma plays with 3 in the back, and you simply cannot do that vs Christian. he destroys 3-man backlines. DeLigt still out and Dybala might see some time coming off the bench. this should be juiced more, so ill take it. Roma/Juventus btts + over 2.5 @+108

Dzeko to score anytime @+160 - he was held out last week due to the pending transfer which we pulled the rug out from under his feet & signed Morata instead. so here we have a guy going up against the team he was ready to sign with 4 days ago. thats not a good thought. so a little concerned hes motivated to "show us" what we could have had. 

EPL: mostly will try to catch a few games, and cheer for Palace but there is one:
Brighton/ManU - kind of like United in this spot, even though its on the road. losing their home opener and having to sit there all week listening to all that cr*p coming from the media. prices are decent enough for a squad whom thumped this opponent twice last year. ManU to win @-120

have good wknd and GL to all 

thanks for the tons of infos

Ibra just can't help himself, can't believe he said that. Hope all is well over there my friend, good luck this weekend let's get these fazouls! 

Whoever u are I hope u win 

Draw Party 

Nice start to the draw adventure!

good luck spec! im on Benevento too, ugh. still believe they can turn this around.

excited for fiore/inter not sure if ill stab at it.

milan -1 for me. might go pretty big. the new bobo starting hehe, colombo.

ciao and have a good season!

Good luck spec

love your benevento pick 

Incredible work yet again 

Thanks for posting your picks, tailed almost every single one.

Solid day champ! 

Speciman,

I am silent on here as I am still learning football angles and just remain on the sidelines until I have something to add to the forum.  I just wanted to say incredible work and thanks for your in depth insights, truly helps one understand the various angles you take.  Amazing work again!

nice work

villa, Shak, In, Laffy  appreciate  the words. tks fer stopping by.
WCI yeah. just bad timing.
doc just been getting fortunate with EPL. this week Allison blocks a late PK, next night Jesus scores on literally the last play of match, now United converts 10 min into injury time. all i know is that kind os stuff tends to even out as season progresses. im accumulating a major IOU from the Soccer Gods up there this past week 
elpr, firstly, good to see ya around hope all is well for yourself and family. Milan? staying on sidelines with them today, im expecting them to compete for a CL slot by seasons end; tho its not the strongest of opponents, being w/out Zlat, on 3 days rest, and its a roadie just want to see how they handle/approach things. the situation is a good tester vs an opponent they "should" be able to handle. we'll see.
yoro benevento
BigD appreciate it & tks fer stopping by.
Jarrett you better not take those winnings to Olive Garden or we will have to have a 'small talk' someday
Ganda, did I miss something? im running out of time here but for the record.. im 'suspicious' of that comment.  anyways, as always and tks fer stopping in and hope all is well. apologies for profiting from fading your fav team struggles again. i called out juve to get UCL-booted last year so I know how hard it is to type those sentences sometimes. i know you understand what i mean.
KJ tks fer stopping by
T1 appreciate it.

BANG!!!!     

Serie B Draw Festival: just need 1 more to finish on "+" side, and still have next weeks full slate to go.

Monza/SPAL @+240 (W)
Brescia/Ascoli @+235 (W)
Cosenza/Entella @+235 (W)
Lecce/Pordenone @+260 (W)
Pescara/Chievo @+220 (W)
Salernitana/Reggina +242 (W)
Frosinone/Empoli @+220 (L)
Venezia/Vicenza @+245 (L)
Cremonese/Cittadella +210
Reggiana/Pisa @+210

UCL fades: could have been even better if not for a few late goals. 5 of the 9 teams dropped points with Molde & Gent leading the way with nice payouts.  (cork popping) 

Slavia/Slovacko +1.5 @-105 (L)
Midtjylland/Randers +1/2 @+160 (L)
Ried/Salzburg +1500, +750, +1.5 @+175 (L, L, L)
Volos/PAOK +1100, +480, +1.5 @+102 (L, W, W)
Sochi/Krasnador +254, +265 (L, W)
Olympiakos/Panaitolkos +1.5 @+110 (L)
Molde/Sandjeford +600, +425 (W, L)
Gent/Leuven +575, +400 (W, L)
Minai/Kiev +1100, +500, +1.5 @+112 (L, L, L)

Benevento +1/2 @-115, outright @+280 (W, W)
Torino/Atalanta over 1.5 @-120 (L)
ManU to win @-120 (W)

 running out of time here, posting quickly:

Pending:
Sassuolo -1 @+135
Udinese pick @-105
Roma/Juventus btts + over 2.5 @+108
Dzeko to score anytime @+160

adding:

Serie C-Girone C
Palermo to win @+125, -1 1/2 @+350 - season opener, took a shot with this. one of the several futures didnt bother posting (most books dont have for this division) was them to win promotion. Sicilians were in "B" just 2 years ago, and actually won promotion to the top. but were caught red-handed in a nasty financial-scandal and due to the severity, sent waaaaay down to the bottom. they blew thru Serie D last year losing just 3 of their 27 matches. even tho its a roadie, not sure what are they doing @ "+" money today, they have loaned-out players whom were on Serie A rosters last year. cazzo!!

Germany: (tailing)
Hoff/Munich - got to agree with a buddy on this one, not sure why the heck money coming in for the home side here. yeah, Munich just played that Cup match, an extra session too; but its too early in season to use the 'fatigue' angle. so, techincally that 1-1 draw they "dropped points". and whenver Munich dropped pts last year? 3-0, 3-0, 2-2, 2-0, 4-0, 4-1 (and worth noting that 3 of those wins were vs CL opponents). and people seem to be forgetting they blew this opponent away 6-0 on the very same pitch 3 days after returning from Stamford Bridge in the 1st leg of KOs.  a match where Lewandowski wasnt even in the lineup either. 6 goals??... w/out Lew??? juiced road favs on the HC is a big "no-no" with me so ill just take over 1.5 goals in each half for +158 and actually hoping Hoff can help the cause by banging in the first one. we'll see. 

GL to all 

monkee, ehhh. tks for stopping by appreciate it.

id like to say 'decent' 7 days, obviously it was anything, a single euro on all thy plays youd have 41 by last night puts it right up there with some of the 'sandwich' wknds. all it does is provide a nice cushion for those chunk-blowing sessions which will come someday.

Cremonese/Cittadella +210 (L)
Reggiana/Pisa @+210 (W)
Sassuolo -1 @+135 (W)
Udinese pick @-105 (L)
Roma/Juventus btts + over 2.5 @+108 (W)
Dzeko to score anytime @+160 (L)
Palermo to win @+125, -1 1/2 @+350 (L, L)
Hoff/Munich over 1.5 goals in each half @+158 (W)

Munich no good anymore?.  and I wont talk about Juve. 

on to a new week.