Posted:
#1
2012-13 Covers Posted Soccer: 177-146 +65.53 units
I will not be around until roughly 12pm EST as I have a pretty busy morning so I wanted to get my early plays posted to avoid rushing before kick off.
I have locked in the following. Odds may change overnight but I've gone ahead and locked in as I won't have the time to line watch tomorrow morning.
Confederations Cup
Italy v Uruguay over 2.5 -130 to win 2 units
I played the 2.5 instead of the 2.75 because 3 of my 4 models gave me 3 goals exactly while the 4th gave me 4 goals.
(My two experimental models gave me 4 goals in each one but those are two new spreadsheets I'm testing for the upcoming Europe seasons)
Bottom line in this game is that these two teams really don't care who finishes 3rd or 4th out of an 8 team tournament. While they would like to claim 3rd, not at the expense of injury. After Italy's match v Spain, the team just wants to have some fun and get the hell out of dodge and back home to start dealing with their club matters. Same for Uruguay ... Suarez wants to get his transfer (hopefully fast tracked) and Cavani wants to start making arrangements for life in London.
This one will be for the fans ... An entertaining free flowing game as are most "meaningless games" consolation games. Avoiding injury is a primary concern so I expect the tackling to be weak and the players will in turn have plenty of space to enjoy themselves.
Uruguay has a lot of scoring potential on their team and as Italy showed in their games prior to Spain, they are still struggling defensively. I DO NOT expect another clean sheet, both teams will score and there will be a winner within the 90 min. Italy's last 15-16 games before the Spain game really showed that this team is going through a transitional phase on defense and Prandelli likes to play attacking football. Their game v Spain was their defensive gem of the tournament .. Prior to that though they still allowed 4 to Brazil, 3 to Japan and 1 to Mexico.
I'm not even going to guess a side here but instead go with an entertaining match with plenty of chances.
Uruguay will have the fresher legs. The heat shouldn't be as much of a factor as it was in the Spain - Italy game given the location of this match.
Italy came out firing against Spain and created many chances in the first half but were unfortunate not to score. Expect them to go forward again as Uruguay's keeper is not of the same class as Casillas.
MLS
Toronto FC v Real Salt Lake over 2.5 +108 to win 2 units
Something rare took place in Toronto's last game .... They had a clean sheet!!! Their first one of the season. Toronto FC fans (such as myself but slowly change allegiance to the Impact) know that until ownership starts to spend money, FC will be mediocre at best. I do not handicap or forecast another clean sheet for Toronto in this game. The probability of back to back clean sheets is extremely low.
Not only is Toronto's defense poor (allow a lot of late goals) but they are facing a RSL squad firing on all cylinders of late. They have won their last 6 (all competitions) and in their last 8 MLS games have outscored opponents 16-7, going 6-1-1 in that span. A far cry from only 7 goals in their first 9 games of the season. Over their last 8 they've seen an average of 2.88 total goals per game. They have scored 3 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including 3 against the Galaxy and San Jose and 4 against Chivas on the road.
In 8 road games they've scored 11 and conceded 10 for an average of 2.63/game. Toronto has conceded 10 in 7 home games and scored 9 for a 2.71 average.
Toronto has played better of late and even though they are 2nd last in league offense primarily because they've had to rely on Earnshaw so much, I expect the return of Danny Koevermans should help the offense. He will be available for the game. Whether he starts or Silva starts alongside Earnshaw is yet to be determined but I anticipate he will see action in this game. Toronto has been creating a lot more scoring chances of late and they have looked more adventurous up front.
Real Salt Lake has never won in Toronto but that isn't reason to back Toronto. RSL has just been playing to well. The most probable outcome according to my data runs is 2-1 but 2 give me RSL and 2 give me Toronto so I will play the total instead.
RSL only has five clean sheets this season and as I already mentioned Toronto only has 1.
RSL is 5-2 over 2.5 in their last 7 overall and 3-0 over 2.5 in their last 3 road games. They have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 league games. Toronto is 4-3 "over" in their 7 home league games.
I'll handicap the MLS night games on my return (after the Italy match) and will post/tweet plays as soon as I can.
Good luck friends.
I will not be around until roughly 12pm EST as I have a pretty busy morning so I wanted to get my early plays posted to avoid rushing before kick off.
I have locked in the following. Odds may change overnight but I've gone ahead and locked in as I won't have the time to line watch tomorrow morning.
Confederations Cup
Italy v Uruguay over 2.5 -130 to win 2 units
I played the 2.5 instead of the 2.75 because 3 of my 4 models gave me 3 goals exactly while the 4th gave me 4 goals.
(My two experimental models gave me 4 goals in each one but those are two new spreadsheets I'm testing for the upcoming Europe seasons)
Bottom line in this game is that these two teams really don't care who finishes 3rd or 4th out of an 8 team tournament. While they would like to claim 3rd, not at the expense of injury. After Italy's match v Spain, the team just wants to have some fun and get the hell out of dodge and back home to start dealing with their club matters. Same for Uruguay ... Suarez wants to get his transfer (hopefully fast tracked) and Cavani wants to start making arrangements for life in London.
This one will be for the fans ... An entertaining free flowing game as are most "meaningless games" consolation games. Avoiding injury is a primary concern so I expect the tackling to be weak and the players will in turn have plenty of space to enjoy themselves.
Uruguay has a lot of scoring potential on their team and as Italy showed in their games prior to Spain, they are still struggling defensively. I DO NOT expect another clean sheet, both teams will score and there will be a winner within the 90 min. Italy's last 15-16 games before the Spain game really showed that this team is going through a transitional phase on defense and Prandelli likes to play attacking football. Their game v Spain was their defensive gem of the tournament .. Prior to that though they still allowed 4 to Brazil, 3 to Japan and 1 to Mexico.
I'm not even going to guess a side here but instead go with an entertaining match with plenty of chances.
Uruguay will have the fresher legs. The heat shouldn't be as much of a factor as it was in the Spain - Italy game given the location of this match.
Italy came out firing against Spain and created many chances in the first half but were unfortunate not to score. Expect them to go forward again as Uruguay's keeper is not of the same class as Casillas.
MLS
Toronto FC v Real Salt Lake over 2.5 +108 to win 2 units
Something rare took place in Toronto's last game .... They had a clean sheet!!! Their first one of the season. Toronto FC fans (such as myself but slowly change allegiance to the Impact) know that until ownership starts to spend money, FC will be mediocre at best. I do not handicap or forecast another clean sheet for Toronto in this game. The probability of back to back clean sheets is extremely low.
Not only is Toronto's defense poor (allow a lot of late goals) but they are facing a RSL squad firing on all cylinders of late. They have won their last 6 (all competitions) and in their last 8 MLS games have outscored opponents 16-7, going 6-1-1 in that span. A far cry from only 7 goals in their first 9 games of the season. Over their last 8 they've seen an average of 2.88 total goals per game. They have scored 3 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including 3 against the Galaxy and San Jose and 4 against Chivas on the road.
In 8 road games they've scored 11 and conceded 10 for an average of 2.63/game. Toronto has conceded 10 in 7 home games and scored 9 for a 2.71 average.
Toronto has played better of late and even though they are 2nd last in league offense primarily because they've had to rely on Earnshaw so much, I expect the return of Danny Koevermans should help the offense. He will be available for the game. Whether he starts or Silva starts alongside Earnshaw is yet to be determined but I anticipate he will see action in this game. Toronto has been creating a lot more scoring chances of late and they have looked more adventurous up front.
Real Salt Lake has never won in Toronto but that isn't reason to back Toronto. RSL has just been playing to well. The most probable outcome according to my data runs is 2-1 but 2 give me RSL and 2 give me Toronto so I will play the total instead.
RSL only has five clean sheets this season and as I already mentioned Toronto only has 1.
RSL is 5-2 over 2.5 in their last 7 overall and 3-0 over 2.5 in their last 3 road games. They have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 league games. Toronto is 4-3 "over" in their 7 home league games.
I'll handicap the MLS night games on my return (after the Italy match) and will post/tweet plays as soon as I can.
Good luck friends.
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