Saturday Soccer Plays

GERMANY

Borussia Dortmund -1.25 +105 2 units

Borussia Dortmund v Augsburgover over 2.5 -131 2 units

Plain and simple, Dortmund is a legitimate favorite to overthrow Munich this year as the league champion.  Augs is merely looking to stay in the top flight again this year and can't be expected to over-through an in your face attack minded team like Dortmund.  With Munich off to the races winning their opener 3-1, Dortmund knows that it can't start falling behind and these are the games that it must win.  They've had a decent pre-season and have been scoring goals.  They are as strong if not stronger than last year but Augs has lost some of its talent so this one is a tough one out of the gate for them.

My spreadsheets have 3-0 Dortmund in 3 of 4 scenarios and 3-1 in another.

off to a good start with this morning's Bundesliga selections cashing, so sitting at 2-0 +2.10 units

The remainder of today's plays are all MLS plays.  Remember, I have a pending FA Community Shield game pending posted above and Monaco over at 3pm EST today.

MLS

Vancouver v San Jose over 2.5 -110  to win 2 units

This game intrigues me because it has all the makings of a high scoring, high octane game.  Problem is, I never stray from my 2 unit max stake because you really never do know how the game will go but, all indicators point to a high scoring match and my spreadsheets agree placing 2-2 in two scenarios, 3-1 and 2-1 in the others.

First, here’s a couple nuggets I tweeted a couple days ago when I started prepping for this weekend’s action;

• Vancouver has seen 4 or more goals in 5 of their 8 home games against bottom 6 opposition (62.5%)
• San Jose has seen the over 2.5 cash in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams in the top half of the standings (75%).
• Finally, Vancouver has seen the over 2.5 cash in 7 of their 10 home matches for a 70% win rate.

It is extremely hard to ignore those stats.

Add to that the fact that the Whitecaps have only 2 clean sheets at home this season, have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of their 11 home games this season compared to San Jose who has conceded 2 or more goals in 6 of 11 road games and has zero clean sheets on the road.

Vancouver is the second highest scoring team in the West at 34 goals scored (Tied for second in the league) and is the highest scoring home team in all of MLS.  Their 30 goals conceded though ties them for 3rd most goals allowed in the West and 4th worst in the league so I do see San Jose finding one in this game which is critical to the over in my view.

San Jose is tied for 3rd in all of MLS with most goals conceded on the road.   San Jose has scored 2 or more in 4 of their last 5 games while Vancouver has scored 2 or more in 3 of their last 5 but played a tough defensive outfit in Portland on the road last game and was down to 10 men early in their prior game vs Philadelphia.  Today's game should see Vancouver get back to their flowing ways with San Jose welcoming back Wondolowski and Clarence Goodson which should see them end their streak of failing to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.

ADDED

MLS

Toronto v Seattle over 2.25 -114   2 units

Seattle +128 Toronto 2 units

This is a big deal for Seattle, who needs to get back on track or risk seeing their season fade away in a very competitive Western Conference where every point is vital.  3 of my 4 spreadsheets make them 3-0 victors while the 4^th makes the final 2-1 Seattle.

Toronto has looked better of late but I do think that they are not as good as their recent run of form would lead one to believe.

Note: I think we are getting a better line here because word is that Dempsey has been fighting a cold this week so could start off the bench for Seattle.

Toronto has only 1 clean sheet at home all season and after being shutout in their last 3 road games, look for Seattle to press to ensure they aren’t shut out for a 4^th road game in a row.  I can’t see it happening.  This Toronto team may have its moments but the reality is they are a bad team facing an extremely hungry team.  Seattle have scored 2 or more in 3 of their last 4 and seem to be finding their way again.

Toronto have conceded 15 at home, Seattle have conceded 14 on the road, albeit playing in a tougher west conference.  Toronto might be without Earnshaw which takes away an attacking threat but then again, keep in mind that it is my opinion that Seattle will do most of the scoring in this one.

As for Toronto, over 2.5 has cashed in 6 of their 11 home games BUT has cashed for Seattle in 8 of their last 11 vs bottom six opposition. (73% win rate)

3 of the last 4 head to head meetings have seen score-lines that all favoured Seattle, 3-1, 1-0, 3-0 and 3-2.   Can’t see that changing despite Toronto’s better run of form.  I’m not going to be fooled by it.

MLS

KANSAS CITY V NEW ENGLAND OVER 2.5 +101 2 UNITS

Finally in the only other qualifying game for me today, I see this one as the logical choice despite the recent run of low scoring head to head meetings in this series.

New England will want to get back into the win column after last week’s somewhat embarrassing home loss to lowly Toronto FC.  KC has seen some spotty form of late and will want to grab the full 3 points away from a very beatable New England team.  I have loved watching Kansas City games this year when I’ve had a chance because I love the way they move the ball in he final third.  They create a lot of chances (scoring 20 goals in their 12 home games and averaging 20 attempts at goal per game!

New England has a good conversion rate, (10%) on the road for goals/ for attempts on target so statistically, if they reach their average of 11 shot attempts at goal, they should net at least 1.  Odds are they should reach their average considering that they do average just over 11 attempts at goal per road game  Kansas City though is the second highest scoring home team in the East and tied for 3rd overall in the East (home/away). (5th highest in all of MLS).  New England road games have averaged 2.6 total goals per game.  KC home games have averaged 2.75 total goals. I have this game handicapped at 3.12 indicating a probable total goal output of 3 goals.  My lean would be KC but I just don’t have the confidence with this price.  I want to stay away from the handicap because I have them winning by 1 goal but the close to -150 might be high considering one of my spreadsheets gave me 2-2. I think this game ends 2-1 KC personally.

New England loves to attack on the wings.  Kansas City loves to attack using both the wings and the middle of the pitch which is where I think they will hit New England tonight.  

Finally, over 2.5 has cashed in 60% (6 of last 10) of KC’s home games v middle of the pack teams but has cashed in 9 of 12 (75%) of New England’s road games against the league’s top six teams.

Kansas City has seen 4 of it’s last 5 home games go over 2.5 goals.  New England has seen 3 of their last 5 on the road go over 2.5 so we have a 7-3 situation here as well.

Added:  Montreal v Chicago over 2.5 -116 to win 2 units .... no time to write this up ... need to run some errands then going out for the night.

Good luck everyone.