On the third day of the tournament, defending champion Spain started their attempt to remain champions of Europe by facing Italy. Spain, who remained the juggernaut of the tournament in the first match, found themselves stopped by Italy in a 1-1 draw. Using their classic defensive approach, Italy played a strong match. On a warm afternoon in northern Poland, Italy's three defenders stymied the attacking options of Spain. Italy did this through a variety of different tactics. They applied more defensive pressure in their defending third, which was evident in Spain completing just 80 percent of their passes in that area, while they completed 92 percent of their attempts on the other two-thirds of the field. The Italians' pressure allowed them to successfully complete all 15 tackles that they attempted, along with intercepting 35 passes. Those 35 interceptions of Spanish passes is the highest total registered by Italy in any of their five matches in the tournament.
Italy's defense was stupendous against Spain in their prior meeting. Spain's quality has not been questioned much in recent years. After defeating Italy on penalties in the Euro 2008 quarterfinals, Spain have been on an unprecedented run that saw La Roja win their first European Championship in 48 years, along with the first World Cup in Spanish history. Heading into this Euro, no one knew what to make of Spain. Already without two Barcelona superstars in David Villa and Carles Puyol due to injury and with reports of a divide in the Spanish camp, Spain were no longer considered to be the favorites to repeat as champions. But Spain unified as a squad and have been superb since that 1-1 draw on June 10. After three wins in regular time and a victory on penalties against neighbor Portugal, Spain find themselves in the final.
Spain has watched different players star on the offensive, despite not using a striker for a majority of the tournament. Spain's midfield has been their biggest story of the tournament, thanks in large part to their successful use of a six-man midfield.
The five players who have started every match in that midfield—Xavi, Andres Iniesta, Sergio Busquets, Xabi Alonso and David Silva—have all been superb. Not only have they created numerous chances, but they have completed over 1,700 passes at an 88 percent clip. Other midfielders, such as Cesc Fabregas and Jesus Navas, have been stars whether they have been afforded the opportunity to start or come off the bench. Both players were responsible for important Spanish wins in Euro 2012, and are the x-factor for their success.
Italy have found their success through a strong defensive effort. In Euro 2012, the Italians have conceded just three goals, despite facing the likes of Spain, Croatia, England and Germany. Defenders such as Georgio Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli and Federico Balzaretti have brought a strong mix of experience and youth to this Azzuri side, propelling Italian football forward. But Italy's most important player has been Andrea Pirlo. After missing most of the 2010 World Cup due to injury, Pirlo has once again proven that he is one of the world's best midfielders with a performance worthy of UEFA's Player of the Tournament. Pirlo does have a goal and two assists, but by passing at an 88 percent clip and his 15 chances created have provided major dividends for Italy. Pirlo was exceptional against England, with a cheeky penalty in the shootout highlighting a great performance. But Italy have been more than just Pirlo; players like Mario Balotelli and Danielle De Rossi have also been superb. Balotelli's brace against Germany and De Rossi's strong play in both midfield and defense have been critical parts for Italy's success.
Both sides have gone with steady formations throughout the tournament. I think, instead of using a six-man midfield again versus the Italians, Spain will employ three traditional midfielders in Silva, Fabregas and Iniesta on top.
Italy will maintain that defensive framework that has worked wonders since the final match of the group stage. In the last 318 minutes, the Italians have only conceded one goal against opponents such as England and Germany. The only goal conceded was on a penalty in extra-time to Mesut Ozil in the semifinal. The midfield of Claudio Marchisio, Pirlo and Di Rossi will be the most important part of the Italian game. They provide the critical link that starts counterattacks, which may be the only way that the Italians have a chance of scoring. On top, Balotelli and Cassano have worked well together in the tournament. The play of Balotelli has been critical, especially considering his poor performance against Spain in the group stage. Balotelli has shown signs of maturity and is in position to win the Golden Boot for this tournament with three goals already on his record.
Spain have met Italy seven times in major tournaments, but have never managed an outright win. The only success La Roja has achieved against the Italians came in a penalty shootout at Euro 2008 in the quarterfinals following a 0-0 draw.
The last two Euro finals were decided by a single goal. But considering how Italy absorbs pressure and how Spain attacks, it is probably safe to guess that this could be a scoreless draw.
Only once before has a European Championship been decided on penalties. That took place in 1976, when Antonin Panenka took his now-famous penalty to give Czechoslovakia the trophy.
I think Spain will come out attacking (the same way as Germany did), but they will be more successful and will score at least one goal.
Spain 2 Italy 1 (1:0 at halftime)
Bets: Under 1.5 at Halftime risk -400 to win 100
Spain pk at halftime risk -200 to win 100
Spain to lead at halftime risk 50 to win 100
Total over 2 for the game risk 100 to win 105
Spain to win risk 100 to win 115
Over 10 corners risk -280 to win 200 (in the first game there were 9 corners 7 for Spain and 2 for Italy). This time I expect more than 9 - at 10 it will a push
Both teams to score risk 100 to win 140
Good Luck!
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