Posted:
#1
An unfortunately Wednesday with 0-2 and a Dinamo team who had 17 - 7 in goal scoring attempts manage to lose at home, while Malmö had 21-4 in goal scoring opportunities and 68% possession to settle for an unbelieveable 0-0 draw.. sounds like a bounce back Thursday is on the card, actually I have been looking at these games for a couple of days, super excited to see how this turns out.. big card for being me.
Elfsborg - Inter Baku: Pick: Inter Baku +1 AH @ 1.85 (2/10)
Loving the road team in fact, was thinking about throwing a unit on the straight up victory there for a great dog price, the hosts have a fully healthy squad but they are not in the best of shape after the world cup break, where they struggled heavily in the first game back. They play on their artifictial turf at home which normally gives them an advantage, but truth is that Inter Baku also plays on this surface regularly back home, so there is really no advantage for Elfsborg in that sense. Baku have a team full of foreigners who are technically gifted and especially their midfield is very experienced with Meza being the brain and Madrigal up front is a tricky striker to keep your eyes on for the defenders. Defensively Baku are not awful, they have international experience there as well with Salukvadze and Amisulashvili, both with Russian league experience. I do like Inter to take advantage of Elfsborg's poor display last time out, and get a good result back home to Azerbaidzjan. Bookies totally wrong with the odds in my opinion, should be something like 3.00 at highest for the visitors. Baku would belong at the upper half in the Swedish league, something which Elfsborg are as well.
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Zestafoni - Trnava: Pick: Zestafoni DnB @ 2.10 (2/10)
Another Georgian team that I have hopes for is Zestafoni, the only real challenger to Dinamo Tbilisi in the domestic league, and in fact the team looks stronger than they have in many years due to some action in the transfer window from the Winter. They have had a good preparation against teams such as Shakhtar Donetsk, which they only lost by one goal, and overall Zestafoni looks more and more like a team despite many new faces. They certainly have a team to be excited about with returners Jaba Dvali and Nikoloz Gelashvili, two top class strikers who were scoring for fun for Zestafoni a couple of seasons ago, but they failed in their new clubs and have now returned back home where they thrive. Also, the best center back in the Georgian league Rene Santos is stellar, and Bojan Pavlovic from Crvena Zvezda is a great addition as a goal keeper - the team have taken international steps which I like. Moreover, coach Geguchadze is back with the team - the team he once coached and which fell apart when he left. Zestafoni looks to be back in harmony. Trnava is a team of mid-slovakian standards, they recently qualified versus the 4th best team from Malta, Hibernians Paola, with some struggle. They certainly did not impress against such a weak opponent, and I think they will sweat against Zestafoni, to me, these odds are a steal for the Draw No Bet.
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Atlantas - Shakthar Kargandy: Pick: Shakthar Kargandy @ 1.90 (2/10)
Lithuanian soccer and Atlantas are nothing mouth-watering, as they barely survived against Differdagne from Luxembourg but still did just enough. Kargandy had a surprisingly good campain last year and they look to be on a similar level for this year's qualifications as well. I took this price early on, on the same day they came out and they are now around 1.70 at highest. Simply I reason that the best Kazakh team should have no problems to overcome a top 4 team from Lithuania, especially when we look at the teams budgets, Kargandy are hundred times richer, and therof have players with salaries likely 10 times greater than Atlantas, and this should also by all means be reflected on the field. I do not expect a massive victory, but two away goals is enough for a solid win, expect odds to keep dropping.
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Rijeka - Ferencvaros: Pick: Rijeka -1 AH @ 1.97 (4/10)
I saw both the matches of Ferencvaros against Maltese side Sliema, and I am surprised to say that Sliema deserved to advance, as the Hungarians looked terrible in fact. Sliema missed a penalty at home which could have set the tone, and they were no clueless on the road game either - conclusion wise, Ferencvaros were juuust better than a Maltese top three club, and now they are off against Rijeka from Croatia, the new power-horse in Croatia to battle with Dinamo Zagreb for seasons to come. In my mind this can only end in one way, Rijeka to dominate and hopefully win by a good margin to set themselves up for a pleasant trip to Hungary next week. 2-0, 3-0 or even more is possible. Large on Rijeka
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Linfield - AIK: Pick: AIK @ 1.83 (1/10)
Another game I took at the second it came out, now you will find odds around 1.60 and 1.73 at highest but they are still good enough. I usually do not have much faith in Swedish teams in European competitions, but AIK have hit their top form just in time for me to back them. Celso Borges is back in the team, the Costa Rican midfielder who enjoyed a great time in Brazil is the best player on the team, and Northern Irish amateur team Linfield should not be in the way of a solid victory for AIK in their prime-period. The Linfield players are not full time professionals, whereas the AIK players are, with salaries between 7-10k per month and eventual bonuses in case of advancing in Europe is a motivational factor. Linfield will try to disturb AIK with their physical style, hard tackles and generate crossed at every opportunity. AIK though have more individual skill and flair, moreover will have more of the ball. I respect Linfield, but in the end I see a narrow road victory for AIK to build on at home next week.
Elfsborg - Inter Baku: Pick: Inter Baku +1 AH @ 1.85 (2/10)
Loving the road team in fact, was thinking about throwing a unit on the straight up victory there for a great dog price, the hosts have a fully healthy squad but they are not in the best of shape after the world cup break, where they struggled heavily in the first game back. They play on their artifictial turf at home which normally gives them an advantage, but truth is that Inter Baku also plays on this surface regularly back home, so there is really no advantage for Elfsborg in that sense. Baku have a team full of foreigners who are technically gifted and especially their midfield is very experienced with Meza being the brain and Madrigal up front is a tricky striker to keep your eyes on for the defenders. Defensively Baku are not awful, they have international experience there as well with Salukvadze and Amisulashvili, both with Russian league experience. I do like Inter to take advantage of Elfsborg's poor display last time out, and get a good result back home to Azerbaidzjan. Bookies totally wrong with the odds in my opinion, should be something like 3.00 at highest for the visitors. Baku would belong at the upper half in the Swedish league, something which Elfsborg are as well.
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Zestafoni - Trnava: Pick: Zestafoni DnB @ 2.10 (2/10)
Another Georgian team that I have hopes for is Zestafoni, the only real challenger to Dinamo Tbilisi in the domestic league, and in fact the team looks stronger than they have in many years due to some action in the transfer window from the Winter. They have had a good preparation against teams such as Shakhtar Donetsk, which they only lost by one goal, and overall Zestafoni looks more and more like a team despite many new faces. They certainly have a team to be excited about with returners Jaba Dvali and Nikoloz Gelashvili, two top class strikers who were scoring for fun for Zestafoni a couple of seasons ago, but they failed in their new clubs and have now returned back home where they thrive. Also, the best center back in the Georgian league Rene Santos is stellar, and Bojan Pavlovic from Crvena Zvezda is a great addition as a goal keeper - the team have taken international steps which I like. Moreover, coach Geguchadze is back with the team - the team he once coached and which fell apart when he left. Zestafoni looks to be back in harmony. Trnava is a team of mid-slovakian standards, they recently qualified versus the 4th best team from Malta, Hibernians Paola, with some struggle. They certainly did not impress against such a weak opponent, and I think they will sweat against Zestafoni, to me, these odds are a steal for the Draw No Bet.
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Atlantas - Shakthar Kargandy: Pick: Shakthar Kargandy @ 1.90 (2/10)
Lithuanian soccer and Atlantas are nothing mouth-watering, as they barely survived against Differdagne from Luxembourg but still did just enough. Kargandy had a surprisingly good campain last year and they look to be on a similar level for this year's qualifications as well. I took this price early on, on the same day they came out and they are now around 1.70 at highest. Simply I reason that the best Kazakh team should have no problems to overcome a top 4 team from Lithuania, especially when we look at the teams budgets, Kargandy are hundred times richer, and therof have players with salaries likely 10 times greater than Atlantas, and this should also by all means be reflected on the field. I do not expect a massive victory, but two away goals is enough for a solid win, expect odds to keep dropping.
___________________
Rijeka - Ferencvaros: Pick: Rijeka -1 AH @ 1.97 (4/10)
I saw both the matches of Ferencvaros against Maltese side Sliema, and I am surprised to say that Sliema deserved to advance, as the Hungarians looked terrible in fact. Sliema missed a penalty at home which could have set the tone, and they were no clueless on the road game either - conclusion wise, Ferencvaros were juuust better than a Maltese top three club, and now they are off against Rijeka from Croatia, the new power-horse in Croatia to battle with Dinamo Zagreb for seasons to come. In my mind this can only end in one way, Rijeka to dominate and hopefully win by a good margin to set themselves up for a pleasant trip to Hungary next week. 2-0, 3-0 or even more is possible. Large on Rijeka
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Linfield - AIK: Pick: AIK @ 1.83 (1/10)
Another game I took at the second it came out, now you will find odds around 1.60 and 1.73 at highest but they are still good enough. I usually do not have much faith in Swedish teams in European competitions, but AIK have hit their top form just in time for me to back them. Celso Borges is back in the team, the Costa Rican midfielder who enjoyed a great time in Brazil is the best player on the team, and Northern Irish amateur team Linfield should not be in the way of a solid victory for AIK in their prime-period. The Linfield players are not full time professionals, whereas the AIK players are, with salaries between 7-10k per month and eventual bonuses in case of advancing in Europe is a motivational factor. Linfield will try to disturb AIK with their physical style, hard tackles and generate crossed at every opportunity. AIK though have more individual skill and flair, moreover will have more of the ball. I respect Linfield, but in the end I see a narrow road victory for AIK to build on at home next week.
0
with U on zestafoni...have to disagree on atlantas, Kargandy has double the talent that the Lithuanians have however it is very difficult to back the away sides during this round. I see a draw and picked the home side +0.5
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