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#1
Hi all
Some might remember me from earlier, most recognized for the "crazy Malmo backer" during last season perhaps (it was a beautiful journey though). It has been a while but feeling like starting up a thread again, seeing a few familiar faces around still - which is great
I am posting early (a day early) to have this recorded and also allow time to discuss the games if anyone is up for questions or general footy talk. Here we go!
Swansea - Hull City: Pick - Swansea @ 1.83 (4/10)
Despite Hull pulling the biggest upset in round one, Swansea are a comfortable home side and are also coming boosted from their victory against a pumped newcomer in Burnley. Coach Guidolin's side plays the usual possession oriented football and despite losing Ayew, there is a lot of pace in the team in Routhledge, Montero, Dyer and Barrow if needed. Kyle Naughton and Jack Cork had the most passes in Swansea in the opening round and clearly they tend to build their attack on the right side to utilize their pacy wings. Hull were playing with a lot of spirit in front of the home crowd and pulled of a victory. This will be harder to come by against a better passing team than Leicester, on the road as well. Swansea impressed and I expect them to score twice at least which would be enough to secure a victory you would think
Burnley - Liverpool: Pick - Burnley +1 AH @ 1.90 (2/10)
I totally get it, I look foolish here - And yes, the reds played great against Arsenal and the price dropped heavily on this game because of that performance (1.91 -> 1.50) for the straight Pool win. It has lost all it's value and suddenly the value has turned to Burnley. Liverpool is a public bet screamer here and if life was that easy, I would blindly have a go at the straight Pool win too but oh how many times have "easy" picks gone wrong - I sense the public will have a nail biter and Burnley can put up a fight. "Minor" teams are always motivated to make life difficult for a favorite, take the home factor into account and this pick suddenly feels likely in my opinion. All value on Burnley and Liverpool has zero value in their odds at the moment. At most a narrow Pool victory, which the handicap would cover in that case for safety
Angelholms - Trelleborg: Pick: Trelleborg @ 2.10 (2/10)
The promotion dream is still alive for Trelleborg as they enter their best run of the season so far. Angelholm have been the most turbulent club in Sweden due to bankrupcy threats and several players have agreed on receiving less salary and moreover, delayed salaries. The whole board of management look to shortly be revamped and the question is whether the club can save themselves from having to shut down completely. Currently they consist of eleven warriors on the field which is admirable but have nothing special to play for any more. The relegation is nearly set in stone with seven points until safe ground. Angelholm have the worst offensive numbers and also the worst defensive numbers. Trelleborg have one of the best defenses and this is a southern derby as well - Trelleborg being the more ambitious side and coming off a goal galore when they scored 5 goals last time. Confidence feels high and the price for an away win feels overpriced. I had them priced at 1.80 myself so I will sprinkle a few coins on the generous price
Gl all!
Some might remember me from earlier, most recognized for the "crazy Malmo backer" during last season perhaps (it was a beautiful journey though). It has been a while but feeling like starting up a thread again, seeing a few familiar faces around still - which is great
I am posting early (a day early) to have this recorded and also allow time to discuss the games if anyone is up for questions or general footy talk. Here we go!
Swansea - Hull City: Pick - Swansea @ 1.83 (4/10)
Despite Hull pulling the biggest upset in round one, Swansea are a comfortable home side and are also coming boosted from their victory against a pumped newcomer in Burnley. Coach Guidolin's side plays the usual possession oriented football and despite losing Ayew, there is a lot of pace in the team in Routhledge, Montero, Dyer and Barrow if needed. Kyle Naughton and Jack Cork had the most passes in Swansea in the opening round and clearly they tend to build their attack on the right side to utilize their pacy wings. Hull were playing with a lot of spirit in front of the home crowd and pulled of a victory. This will be harder to come by against a better passing team than Leicester, on the road as well. Swansea impressed and I expect them to score twice at least which would be enough to secure a victory you would think
Burnley - Liverpool: Pick - Burnley +1 AH @ 1.90 (2/10)
I totally get it, I look foolish here - And yes, the reds played great against Arsenal and the price dropped heavily on this game because of that performance (1.91 -> 1.50) for the straight Pool win. It has lost all it's value and suddenly the value has turned to Burnley. Liverpool is a public bet screamer here and if life was that easy, I would blindly have a go at the straight Pool win too but oh how many times have "easy" picks gone wrong - I sense the public will have a nail biter and Burnley can put up a fight. "Minor" teams are always motivated to make life difficult for a favorite, take the home factor into account and this pick suddenly feels likely in my opinion. All value on Burnley and Liverpool has zero value in their odds at the moment. At most a narrow Pool victory, which the handicap would cover in that case for safety
Angelholms - Trelleborg: Pick: Trelleborg @ 2.10 (2/10)
The promotion dream is still alive for Trelleborg as they enter their best run of the season so far. Angelholm have been the most turbulent club in Sweden due to bankrupcy threats and several players have agreed on receiving less salary and moreover, delayed salaries. The whole board of management look to shortly be revamped and the question is whether the club can save themselves from having to shut down completely. Currently they consist of eleven warriors on the field which is admirable but have nothing special to play for any more. The relegation is nearly set in stone with seven points until safe ground. Angelholm have the worst offensive numbers and also the worst defensive numbers. Trelleborg have one of the best defenses and this is a southern derby as well - Trelleborg being the more ambitious side and coming off a goal galore when they scored 5 goals last time. Confidence feels high and the price for an away win feels overpriced. I had them priced at 1.80 myself so I will sprinkle a few coins on the generous price
Gl all!
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