Posted:
#1
Saturdays always mean 'huge menu' but this week I have just spent time on one single game and picked a couple of selections on it, for solid probability of profit if the match picture goes as I imagine.
Sporting Lisbon - Arouca
A game I have been looking forward to all week - Sporting host Arouca in the second round. A Sporting team who only got 1-1 last week after conceding in the 92 minute against one of the relegation candidates was definitely not something they expected. They return home to Lisbon with revenge lust, and Marco Silva can introduce himself and his team in front of the home fans for the first time this season - against another relegation team, Arouca.
A game I have been looking forward to all week - Sporting host Arouca in the second round. A Sporting team who only got 1-1 last week after conceding in the 92 minute against one of the relegation candidates was definitely not something they expected. They return home to Lisbon with revenge lust, and Marco Silva can introduce himself and his team in front of the home fans for the first time this season - against another relegation team, Arouca.
Sporting got William Carvalho sent off in the last game, a big blow of course, but due to Sporting being such heavy favorites, they will dominate big parts and not feel the absence of Carvalho, because Arouca do not have what it takes to take advantage of that, with 35-40% possession they should not be able to threaten Sporting who have a lot to prove in order to avoid a miserable start.
Rojo left for Manchester United, and Nani returns to Sporting, his childhood club where he is incredibly loved. Look for the team to get a lift just by the transfer itself. He is included in the squad and will likely feature.
Sporting were 10-4-1 at home last year and conceded only 7 goals. Hence I think they are very difficult to score on, and Arouca will likely end up with 0 goals forward.
Arouca were 3-5-7 on the road last year, and a very defensive minded team. They opened the season with 1-1 against a mediocre Estoril team and will compete in the bottom 3 as we summarize the season. A road game against Sporting does not promise any points for Arouca, they will park the bus - but in the end, Sporting for a solid win should just happen. I try my chances.
Last year, this exact meeting ended 5-1 for Sporting, and the road game was 1-2 for Sporting. Goals can come easy if they are relatively effective and break the bus in the first half.
1. Sporting -1.5 AH @ 1.99 (3 units)
2. Sporting win & keeps clean sheet @ 1.90 (2 unit)
3. Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85 (1 unit)
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