Thurs plays (UEL, Lib, and the "Italia Special")

Question

back in a min.....

specimen24 · Answer

back in a min.....

specimen24 · Answer

tried getting this up earlier, gave up. not in mood to scr*w around in morning so finally got thru.

Copa Lib: (Barney put a nice writeup in my thread ystday, similar reasonings)

Nacional(Col)/LaGuaira(Ven) - jumped all over this the minute the lines came out last week and did the same earlier this week. Colombians won 1st leg (on road) 1-0. tho the scoreline might not reflect this, it was a fairly 'comfortable' win as Venezuelans simply were unable to mount any kind of attack. without the exaggeration, Nacional could have easily won that by multiple goals. now at home for the 2nd leg and yes, theres the risk of them playing it 'safe' and simply doing enough to secure advancement. which is one thing i do feel the need to point out here: Colombian teams, at home are typically one serious nut to crack. flood the midfield, pack it in and defend like crazy. thats their 'MO'. especially after having teh advantage after the 1st leg. but the quality gap is too large for them to not bang in several in front of their home fans. they won the posession battle 70-30 last week.... on the road; part of it might be due to Venezuelans attempting to keep it close but after Nacional scored, they still dominated possession the final 20 minutes. thats a telling sign when a team can dominate posession in a situation (1st leg on road) which dictates 'playing it safe'. Another 'variable' to consider is that "miracle" Guaira had in advancing last round, Im fairly certain those Colombians are all aware of that and should leave nothing to chance and hit them on counters. smells like a 2-0, 3-0 scoreline.

Nacional -1.5 @-135

UEL: migh be asking for trouble but going with the roadies

going to stick with the Serie A teams first and perhaps add a few others.

Lazio/Sevilla - im ignoring Inzaghis comments about 'giving their best" & "aim to go far". load of BS. he knows his job security hinges on a top 4 finish and getting that coveted CL slot next year, and Serie A mid-table is jam-packed. same could be said with Sevilla as they are clinging to that 4th spot as well; but I love backing Spanish/Portuguese teams in this tourney, both countries clubs approach this with a little more enthusiasm. they didnt breeze through 3 rounds of qualifiers and win 4 of their 6 Group stage matches just to roll over here. Dont necessarily think they can - or will even attempt to - go for the 'w' here, but these teams are fairly equal and Ill gladly take the half because Lazio hasnt beaten a quality opponent at home all year long thus far (Inter, Milan, Samp, Frankfurt, Torino, & Juve).

Seville pick @+129

Zurich/Napoli - not sure exactly why this line is coming down. yes, its well known Serie A teams tend to not care for UEL. but Ancellotti sending all the key firepower out there up front. and with Juve pulling away, UCL failure, and Coppa too... this is their last chance for hardware. my biggest worry was 1) motivation & 2) approach/tactics. both were answered with Ancellottis squad selection and it appears they arent planning to wait for the 2nd leg. Napoli have scored just ONE goal in their past 6 roadies so this is a perfect chance for them and I dont see Zurich being able to contain. this is just a massive step-up in class for them.

Napoli -1 @-139 - yes, juiced. and right near my threshhold of comfort level. but dont see any reason why Napoli shouldnt - at worst - 'Push' this.

specimen24 · Answer

Rapid/Inter - so, the 8th place team in Austria whom got here via Qualifiers & unbeaten at home shouldnt pose too much of a problem right? but Inter still in a mess; all those media distractions ive documented already; knocked out of UCL, Coppa, and up until winter break they were a 'lock' to qualify for CL next year. but their offense evaporated & suddenly a pack of teams are in their rearview and they have a HUGE game vs Samp on Sunday. last thing they want is a trip to sub-freezing Vienna on a weeknight. and hearing rumors Spaletti might rest Icardi as well as a few others here. giving me 500s for this?? cazzo!! i smell an upset brewing here but really need to wait for lineup confirmations before making a play. PASS for now.

****EDIT: Icardi just excused himself from team,. pissed off he was stripped of captaincy. Spaletti removed him from the roster so he wont be in there. (serves him right for complaining about his contract halfway thru the year)*****

thats all i need to know.

Vienna +1/2 @+125, to win @+515

Olympiakos/Kiev - really like this one. Kiev, coming off a 2 month break; have had weeks to prepare for this one and should be rested and ready. Olympiakos here when pulled a rabbit out of their butts beating Milan with 3 2nd half goals back in december; but they have their hated rivals AEK in 3 days time. last year Kiev in a strangely similar scenario - 2 months off - went into Athens, took an early lead, and held on to their dear lives and got the draw with AEK. deja vu?? worth a shot.

Kiev +1/2 @-110

(fade me

Arsenal -1.5 @+125 - remember when you were little and looked under your bed for monsters? thats me and Arsenal. so if Im going to back them? might as well take the "worst" type of play in my personal opinion: road favorite on a HC line in a European comp in the 1st leg. lets go for the glory. (laughing)

they thumped this team...TWICE... during Group stages last year. but im getting this nagging feeling theyre gonna roll over & play dead. last year they opened the KO rounds thumping a Swedish team 3-0 (i lost that wager. yes, i remember every freaking Arsenal play. dont ask) since the EPL is off this wknd, their next match is the reverse fixture at home where they can rest everyone for the EPL game. they are the far superior club here.

Salzburg to win @+125- a little suprised with this line, should come with a little juice attached.

Shakhtar/Frankfurt BTTS @-133

specimen24 · Answer

the Italia Special. or Italia Jobber. or whatever you want to call it.

Italian Cup (basketball)

Bologna @+650, +12.5

on a side note, dont do hoops that much - or any other sport for that matter aside from alpine skiing season. been doing this for as long as I can remember; friend sent his annual reminder and thought Id post it for fun. for those of you whom like basketball and enjoy a good, freshly FIXED Italian fettucine with a heaping amount of sauce the only thing I plunk some spare change on is the Italian Cup and for as long as i can remember will plunk some on this. (watch, now that I finally elect to post it, itll screw up) wont go into the details but take Bologna @+650 this Thursday. the +12.5 will do but apparently, you can bypass that. Milano is "THE" team out here, they have the best resources, players, and have won twice as many titles as anyone else in league......

......and have an ownership over there which ....."allegedly" (laughing)

....has ties to people you really dont want to meet.

he jut updates the email every year

"last year Milano went off something like 13 pt favs (4 digit outrights) --- lost by 18. 2 years ago? 800s and double digits, won by 2 on a last gasp H-O-R-S-E shot. 3 years ago in finals? double digits again and 4 digit juice, won by 6, but were down in the 4th until the call probably came in. 4 years ago?? 1500 favs, won by 2. 5 years ago 500s & double digits, lost by 2."

do you see a pattern here? if this doesnt hit? get 'em next game, works every year"

for fun, he takes the line at every 3rd point till it hits evens (+3,6,9, whatever) .

LooseNotLose · Answer

Benzema!

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Spec - great write ups my friend.  Nice to see you&#x2019;re still doing work in the soccer hood.  Curious if you looked at Genk.  The line and total seem to favor a low scoring home win or draw but Genk scores everywhere.  Seems like good value.  On the visitors and the over

rewinds2k · Answer

Immobile and Savic not even in the roster for todays game either..

HoustonSports · Answer

https://www.football-italia.net/134646/lazio-no-immobile-or-sms-vs-sevilla

specimen24 · Answer

(adding)Copa Sud:Pari/Monagas over 2.5 @&#x2B;120weird stat a buddy dropped into my lap this morning. was thinking about "blanket-playing" every match on this prop cause of the prices, but passed.Will there be a goal scored before 27th - or whatever minute?  yes. in the last two years in Europa 23 of the 32 matches saw a goal before the half hour mark.  this goes totally against how i THOUGHT these matches would play out thinking along the lines of a 0-0 snoozefest.  thats UEL in a nutshell for me. Loose  not to take anything away from Real, but that was an undeserved result for Ajax. they were the better team YESTERDAY.    but when that ball hit the netting a friend slaps me on the back and says:"Buon San Valentino!!!!"  (happy valentines day)our "sweetheart" has good timing ehh??   gave us a BIG &#x27;kisser&#x27; you-know-where.   weird stat a buddy dropped into my lap this morning. was thinking about "blanket-playing" every match on this prop cause of the prices, but passed.Will there be a goal scored before 27th - or whatever minute?  yes. in the last two years in Europa 23 of the 32 matches saw a goal before the half hour mark.  Settle , those Belgium clubs are a migraine . I honestly wish I cant even figure out anymore if its a strong/weak mid-european league. im not implying its any worse than anywhere else but gosh...... theyre impossible to cap sometimes. the whole lot of them.  score when they shouldnt, concede and open up passing lanes wider than some airport runways then come back around and cleansheet a "power team". just to keep my melon off-balance.  look at Brugge this year: draw Monaco at home and then come back around and cleansheet BOTH Dortmund &amp; Atletico. Genk is another one, blown away by an 8th place Norwegian team on road and then waltz into Turkey and beat Besitkas.  I give up. I passed on the over here simply because Slavia hasnt shown the desire to get into shootouts at home. they cleansheeted Bordeaux, Copenhagen, and Zenit. and Genk might not be so willing to open it up since its the 1st leg on road. Circus , appreciate it.  but i must add, the UEL can be a cr*pshoot sometimes.  in my opinion, much tougher than the UCL for this one simple reason:  motivation.     in the UCL ya dont have to worry about teams, theyre going to &#x27;bring it&#x27; no matter whom is out there --- so in a way, its easier to cap. and the matches are usually decided by a single errant pass or some mental lapse.   the UEL?   didnt have time ystday to reply in ur thread but you asked how can a team like Ajax lose to Heracles and beat Real?  well, stuff like that happens when teams rest their entire regulars or just &#x27;play not to get injured&#x27;. and a lot of those teams, what they do during practice sessions in the week leading up to it is focus on their plan for the CL opponent; could care less about the league match.   thats how those "suprise results" sometimes pop up.  but in the UEL, (at least in Italy), the POLAR OPPOSITE can happen (see Rewinds comment)  teams leave their stars behind or rest them in the UEL match in anticipation for their wknd Serie A game. its not an exact science and i wouldnt go painting this with a broad brush and apply it to every league around europe. EPL clubs probably look at this tourney different, Spain too. etc etc etc.    all i know is I check starting lineups and coaches team selections for the UEL waaay more than I do with UCL.

WhereIsBabu · Answer

Hey Spec - big middle open in Bologna at halftime....

WCI · Answer

Spec is the man, great call in the cup and great day overall. If I come to Italy for my honeymoon, can we have a drink?

overordye0101 · Answer

I hammered national -1.5. I got it before it actually went to -2. What a really really disappointing first half. Ugh. They&#x2019;re happy wit a draw at worst to win the tie it seems.

overordye0101 · Answer

Not gonna cry fix.  But when a team is that big a favorite and can control the game and basically dictate the outcome. Very very sketchy

overordye0101 · Answer

Looked like on some of those shots they just tapped it to the goalie or fell down in the box like they tripped on grass

specimen24 · Answer

Bologna &#x2B;650.     like clockwork yearly. Nacional -1.5 @-135 (L)Seville pick @&#x2B;129 (W)Napoli -1 @-139 (W)   Vienna &#x2B;1/2 @&#x2B;125 to win @&#x2B;515 (L, L)Kiev &#x2B;1/2 @-110 (W)Arsenal -1.5 @&#x2B;125 (L)Salzburg to win @&#x2B;125 (L)Shakhtar/Frankfurt BTTS @-133 (W)Pari/Monagas over 2.5 @&#x2B;120 (W)5-5 for a nice gain on the pitch, and hit the biggie outright &#x2B; 2 HC&#x27;s with the hoops special. - disappointed with that Inter result, should have swept the Serie A teams ystday.- SHOULD BE disappointed with Arsenal. 70-30 posession, 12-3 corners; lose 1-0.  another normal "day" with me taking them. ill just file this one away with the others. should take the juiced -2.5 line next week or whatever the heck it is at, just for the h*ll of it. on to tmrw. Babu ,  nice to see ya around again. trust the "sauce"   WCI  honeymoon?  italy?....  ur going to Venice arent ya?   well, if thats where ur "boss" wants to go then by all means take her.  makes sense anyways, that city is always #1 in weddings and marriage licenses year-in &amp; year-out.   drink? ...... you need to pluralize that please. over,  cmon, geez. had they won 2-0 with 2 PK&#x27;s would you have still said it was fixed.

barneybeans · Answer

Was at the Nacional game - SOOOO many opportunities, shots on goal empty net, hit the crossbar etc.... I know after 1 goal Nacional changes it up so I can't count all of the 7 (yes 7) solid scoring opportunities as potential goals (for me a solid scoring opportunity converts about 30% of the time) so this game in my mind has 1-0, 2-0 written all over it.

A lot of solid wins there Spec thumbs_up

This one is missing a few (that are in the 2nd video). Nacional in white:

This one is missing a few too.

specimen24 · Answer

Barney

thanks for chiming in, was hoping youd give an update. watched tape of the game and exact similar analysis/take on it. i'll chalk that up as a loss this is why i laugh at these guys whom come in with the "fixed" conspiracies without a clue of the situation. its a Lib Prelim ..., soo close to the Group Stage qualification where not only the clubs benefit but I guarantee almost all the players have a contact incentive which kicks in if they qualify. ya think theyre just gonna throw that all away? let me guess, like you said, they can somehow hit the woodwork exactly when needed, or that shot from 5 feet away which deflected off defenders leg just over the crossbar, or like that forward whom angled a shot between the defenders legs there which skimmed inches away from the post. thats pretty skillful if ur able to do that stuff on cue.

hint: if ur gonna throw a game u wouldnt pile forward creating chance after chance. especially when ya didnt even need to when ya had the advantage after the 1st leg. chr*st.

hope you dont mind, but im slated to fade ur boys this wknd. they WILL be resting everyone..... right?

Out

as always.

barneybeans · Answer

The fixsters are onion heads - there is no way thousands of players every year are in on fixed/scripted games across all these sports and no one has said anything in decades.&#xA; &#xA;3 of those shots were sure goals. The creampuffs that went right to the goalie were "high percentage" shots hoping for a little luck. After he was stopping all of those Nacional started going high. That didn&#x27;t work either.&#xA; &#xA;I&#x27;ll know the day of or the day before if Nacional are going all subs (Q&#x27;Hubo a daily is really good at reporting on this) - but the line vs La Equidad will say it all (not out yet).. BUT.. Nacional won last time with the B team...&#xA; &#xA;Bottom line and you said it, there is nothing bigger to any of these South American club teams than la Copa Libertadores. Especially for Nacional&#x27;s new coach. So the chance of any real starter on Sunday are pretty slim.&#xA; &#xA;I woulda won some decent scratch had they scored a goal - one stinking puto goal - instead I pushed. Enjoyed the match. Getting tickets for the 21st.

Thurs plays (UEL, Lib, and the "Italia Special")

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