Tues/Wed plays....(UCL, Lib, Asia)

Question

trying to put this up now so dont have to mess around in AM.

specimen24 · Answer

trying to put this up now so dont have to mess around in AM.

specimen24 · Answer

already had most of this typed up weeks ago when friends asked for quick thoughts after the drawings were announced. so, ill just add to them and post here. i wouldnt advise going crazy on these 1st legs.

*** I wonder if i need to put a disclaimer at the top. so, tail. fade. or print it out and use it as toilet paper for all I care. ***

Quick "1st thought" on European drawings. this is the time of the year where I put a little more trust in the coaches, theyre a peculiar lot whom all have their 'tendencies' which can usually be recognized by he starting formations they put out.

have always thought its advantageous to get the 1st leg on the road. the away goal..... "RULES".

winning the first leg is important? its practically become a MYTH nowadays. and to back up/support my melon is this fact: in the past 5 years from the Qtrs onwards --- the road team has won just 7 of the 30 1st leg matches. winning 1st legs when on the road is NOT a priority.

Tott/City - good lord. again??? City has GOT TO be p*ssed to high h*ll at their fortune 2 straight years. very first thought:

this is a BAD matchup for Tottenham.

this is a BAD matchup for City.

but anyways........ midfield. and City has the advantage there, if you win those battles your chances of success increase a lot. but mentioned this last year too, the WORST matchups for any perceived "favorite" is playing a league neighbor. familiarity, familiarity, familiarity. in my mind this is a toss up (scr*w what the books are saying) which will be decided by an errant pass or a defensive mistake. think Im going to ask the dog for help on this one: if it barks once? Tottenham; if it barks twice? ManC; if it runs in circles and chases its tail? Penalty kicks. im seriously clueless.

***EDIT*** 3 weeks later & I STILL think 300+ on Tott is ridiculous; this is a league rival for godsakes.and theyve had a whole week to prepare. but I checked past lines and got to hand it to the books in that theyve got it right. last year City went off as favorites in the first leg @Anfield. back in October they went off as a juiced up 150 roadie (though that was in Wembley, and Tott was minus Ericksen & Alli starting). i dont like 'looking back' too often when making plays but that match at Anfield last year.... im thinking Pepe learning his lesson because they were clobbered 3-0. and not so much as the scoreline but City got cute by pressing the issue early......... were down 0-3 and it hadnt even hit the half hour mark.

so giving a stab at these: 1st half under 1 @+130

will there be a goal before 26th minute: No @-120 in what im hoping will be a tactical chess match with both clubs whom know another like the back of their hands scared to make that one mistake early on.

tossed a little on Tottenham to advance @+400 (local). ohhh, by the way Bollox.... the dog chased its tail.

in all seriousness though, its just something ive done for as long as I can remember. i just plunk some on the underdog when theres same-league opponents. the 'familiarity' concept cant/shouldnt be undervalued. have had mixed results the entire decade. strangely enuff, theres two of them this week.

2018 - Pool/City (Qtrs) win

2017 - Real/Atletico(Semis) lost

2016 - Atletico/Barca(Qtrs) win

2015 - Atletico/Real(Qtrs) - lost

2014 - Barca/Atletico(Qtrs) won

2012 - Chelsea/ManU(Qtrs) won

2011 - Barcelona/Real(Semis) lost

Europa:

2016 - Bilbao/Sevilla(Qtrs) won

specimen24 · Answer

Porto/Pool - for me? im always pessimistic with this stuff, it helps to keep my level head (laughing). and before anyone thinks this is going to be a cakewalk; yes, youll look at that 5-0 demolishing Pool gave to these guys last year in Round of 16. but i think im gonna go dig up a tape of that and watch parts because stats indicate Pool was outplayed in that (it was only 1-0 at halftime). Porto had the advantage on corners (6-1) & shots (4-0), and the posession was almost =. so how the heck you get 5-0 out of that is making me wonder? and toss out the 2nd leg, when ur at home with a 5-goal advantage you dont need to do squat. but its hard to look past 'Pool here, the way to beat Pool is punch them in the mouth first (score). which is something Porto will not be able to do if they elect to park the bus. because you dont "run" with Pool. and since the first leg is in Anfield this time Pool im worried theyll render that 2nd leg meaningless again. Pool should advance.

*** EDIT *** a few weeks later; personally, I think Pool needs to keep a cleansheet in Anfield; forget about scoring goals (theyll do that too); but if you really want to make that 2nd leg easier - get the cleansheet. THIS, version of Pool; is a lot better than LAST years version in my opinion cause they no longer try to outgun everyone. PSG hung 2 on them, but PSG is stupid. thinking they could "run" with Pool; said this time & again, you dont 'run' with Pool; they just play soo much better when things are more hectic. but everyone talks about Salah/Mane and they get a lot of deserved attention; yet everyone neglects to mention that Pool has kept a cleansheet @Anfield in 7 of their past 9 CL home games and thats what I gotta play here. Klopp isnt stupid.

Pool-Porto BTTS/no @-130, Pool -1.5 @-114 because Im smelling a 2-0, 3-0 scoreline

again, if you really itching to 'hammer' anything, id advise waiting till 2nd legs where gameplans are dictated by the results.

back tmrw with the other regions & wednesdays matchups.

GL to all

DestroyThePitch · Answer

Like the plays. Think Tottenham get something outta that match. And Pool clean sheets Porto for a 3-0 win. When that draw happened I said if Pool go out to Porto, so be it. But I will take them over any other team. And while they&#x2019;re playing better than I expected to this point and Pool just look, idk, ok, two different classes. I think ppl look past the fact that Liverpool get the results they need, when they need them this year. They have a bad history of imploding and ppl are just waiting for that to happen but it hasn&#x2019;t ... and it won&#x2019;t. Let&#x2019;s cash tomorrow Spec

specimen24 · Answer

DTP

quickly here, the thing im wary of with Pool is the fact they put up a cleansheet even with a 5 goal advantage when they could have been excused for losing interest. so theres that chance of being over-confident. regarding Tott, if they had played over the wknd I woulndt have touched that match, but a week preparing for a team ya already know? worth a chance. that 400 on them is the highest ive seen for any of the intra-league matchups. but lets be realistic here, City can blow out anyone on their day. going lightly and we'll see how it unfolds.

Asia:

Luneng + over 2.5 @-120

Guoan to win @-127

Ittihad to win @+160

back later GL

specimen24 · Answer

nice start to the week from Asia:Luneng &#x2B; over 2.5 @-120 (W)Guoan to win @-127 (W)Pending (from above):Ittihad to win @&#x2B;160Tott/City 1st half under 1 @&#x2B;130 will there be a goal before 26th minute: No @-120Pool/Porto BTTS/no @-130, Pool -1.5 @-114adding:Scotland Champ: (tailing)Greenock/Alloa over 2.5 @&#x2B;120Copa Lib: San Lorenzo(Arg)/Melgar(Per) - Argentines have 3 straight cleansheets and lead the Group. not very high on this Melgar squad, they are in 3rd with 4 points and these two played to a boring 0-0 draw to open Groups with.  but that was in the Peruvian altitude. dont see Melgar generating any kind of offence and theyre going to park the bus big time. dont like the juice, and cant take a -1.5 HC with a club whom doesnt score much. going to take a shot at this. Lorenzo to lead at the half @evens, Lorenzo HT/FT @&#x2B;110Olimpia(Par)/Godoy(Arg) - mentioned this at the start of this comp and again here; Paraguayan clubs are bloody tough at home (the whole lot of them); the 3  are a combined 6W-1D-0L thus far in front of their fans &amp; all 3 of them lead their respective Groups so just going to continue riding this as Gody are offenseively inept with just 1 goal in three matches, all which ended in a draw. books still slow in giving them respect.  Olimpia -1 @&#x2B;104Penarol(Uru)/Quito(Ecu) - tempted to hammer the home side here but too juiced. Quito are awful travellers and have yet to keep a cleansheet in any Intl comp the past few years (11 roadies). in Penarols last 8 Lib home matches theyve banged in 2&#x2B; goals. Penarol/Quito over 2.5 @&#x2B;125, Penarol &#x2B; over 2.5 @&#x2B;200. already put these in for tomorrow (will put writeups later)UCL:Barcelona TT over 1.5 @-120Ajax/Juventus 1st half over 1 @-110GL to all

uncrangers101 · Answer

Spec - been following you a while and saw you got some grief over the weekend and wow you nailed it today. 4-0 in Champions League (with a little luck on the PK cool ), Spurs +400 to advance looks a chance and I plumped some on Liverpool 2-0 final at +600 odds and hit that as well. Thank you my friend an_worship

Wish my books had Asia / Copa Lib

Breakpointdeuce · Answer

Went 4-0 today too spec!! Thx again!!

jdukes0004 · Answer

Hey Specimen,I respect your knowledge when it comes to futbol...Before I pull the trigger...What are your thoughts when it comes to over 2.5 in Juventus/Ajax game and Juventus ML.Personally I think the odds are low on the over 2.5 and on Juventus ML...I see great value in both...Ajax loves to play attacking futbol they are not afraid of anybody...but the two homes games they played against elite competition they drew 3-3 against Bayern...and lost 1-2 against Real Madrid...Juventus is better then both of those teams especially defensively...Juventus should be able to score off the counter against Ajax...and we all know Ajax is going to attack all game and score at least one goal....This is the best defensive team Ajax has faced all season....Juventus when they played elite level competition on the road they lost to Athletic Madrid 0-2 and won against Man United 1-0...I think Juventus wins 2-1 or 3-1....your thoughts are greatly appreciated...

specimen24 · Answer

uncra, break

dukes

ill reply in today thread. willl put up shortly..

nice day overall. split the Conmebol right down the middle to end the day with:

Lorenzo to lead at the half @evens, Lorenzo HT/FT @+110 (W, W)

Olimpia -1 @+104 (P)

Penarol/Quito over 2.5 @+125, Penarol + over 2.5 @+200 (L, L)

Luneng + over 2.5 @-120 (W)

Guoan to win @-127 (W)

Ittihad to win @+160 (W)

Tott/City 1st half under 1 @+130 (W)

will there be a goal before 26th minute: No @-120 (W)

Pool/Porto BTTS/no @-130, Pool -1.5 @-114 (W, W)

Greenock/Alloa over 2.5 @+120 (W)

Pending: (will carry these over into writeups for tonight)

Ajax/Juventus over 1 1st half @-110

Barcelona TT over 1.5 @-120

Fraccola · Answer

hey there guys! can you recommend a good betting platform that offers better odds? i have been comparing bookies. thanks in advance.

Tues/Wed plays....(UCL, Lib, Asia)

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