UCL 5th round........

testing first. hope this goes through.

finally.  apologies.  yeah, now i can 'bump' my own thread    just going to toss up discussions and whatever.  had to edit one tho

guys, those mid-tiers at table bottom go all out for the UEL slots, either grab points or try to keep goal difference down.
I see this time & time again..... every year. tell that guy to GET IT THRU HIS THICK SKULL. there are no "meaningless' matches for the smaller mid-tier clubs. the 3rd place UEL slots still there, and every single one of them are motivated to get involved. not to mention, theres a nice 500+ thou for each draw in the Group stage & a million+ for every win each club gets. so on top of the shared revenue, that is a huge boost to the little guys bottom lines. I get it, they might not have the skill level and very well might still get blown away, but its not through lack of effort. but nobody 'rolls over' vs Power 5 leagues. sweet mother of god.
and SECONDLY..... winning your group means NOTHING. the CL final was hardly ever played between Group winners. (pre-Covid, before the empty stadiums, cluster-bleep schedules, and quarantines wrecking lineups). just advance. besides, look at whoms sitting in 2nd right now, theres a few whom you DONT want to be stuck playing in KO's.

Pending:
Chelsea to win @-120, -1 @+140

Adding:
first, as always, our "favorite" 5th rounder. with soo much at stake its hard to gauge how some of these clubs going to react.

Tuesday O1.5 @+393
Wed: O1.5 @+259

decided to have fun this round. the genius/moron UCL struggle continues. 

Serie A clubs first:
(good discussion guys. top shelf)
Chels/Juve - at start of season when the sched came out and UEFA announced groups. we had this circled. as season went on determines how strong/weak the play would be. already beat them - which is a possible major "IOU" coming - but more importantly, we already clinched advancement (1st or 2nd means squat, ). so this basically is meaningless. a trip to England squeezed between Sarri & Atalanta??? hence the play made weeks ago. but yes, if we cap matches its wise to walk about BOTH sides, Tuchels squad realistically only needs a point to advance, and make that trip to peachy December-Russia in final round meaningless. they also have United this wknd, so yeah no argument from me of those whom see it finishing level on the 23rd. but honestly, how many EPL behemoths have we ever seen play for a point @home in this thing? its not in their blood. and we are all banged up. i say 'throw away' and focus on atalanta.

YB/Atalanta - Gasperini should not be juiced here; so this line will drop come gametime next week. no matter what happens in the other match, a 'w' will put them in 2nd place. but that artificial grass is a pain; not to mention freezing temps. and you guys know taking YB @home are one of my favorite angles, we already go the 700 vs United, so this is still a free roll. Swiss side pretty much have to go for the 'w' here, so this could end up being wide open in the 2nd half. Young Boys pick @+145 (1st half), 2nd half O1.5 @-122, over 1.5 @+315(both halves)

Im very very leery of this one. Shakthar in Round 5's when in need of points..... ?????
Inter/Shakhtar - key thing here is the start times, Inter dont have luxury of knowing results of other match should the Moldavans pull off another upset. so it makes it easier to cap. a 'w' here clinches advancement and makes that final round trip to Bernabeu meaningless. but this is a biggie they have coming up vs Napoli, im not fond of the 1.5 when all they need to do is get the 'w'. bear in mind, Ukranians are not simply going to roll over here, they were in this very same spot last year (tho at home) needing points and cleansheeted Real. two years ago went to Etihad and came away with a point vs Pep + Kev + friends, 3 years ago beat Hoff IN Germany as 400 dogs, you get the pix. and theyre coached by DeZerbi whom knows Inters ways. I am not entirely convinced our neighbors should be going off in the 300s here. wait for lineups, you just HAVE TO believe Inzaghi doesnt want to need to visit Spain in final round needing points. PASS for now.
EDIT: that was a wild one last night, Inter looked tired; Barella, Lautaro, Correa,Cal,and Perisic were all eventually subbed out.
getting near evens on this is too good to pass up. i think Inter wins bare minimum here. Shakhtar +1.5 @-102

Madrid/Milan - it wasnt that long ago where this would be a no-brainer decision. Diego at home.  but this isnt the Atletico of years past. impossible to figure out. Piolis lads need at the very least, 2 goals no matter what. and they also must win, to have any chance to advance. crazy thing is, a draw wont help Diegos boys either; and they havent won at home in almost 2 years in this thing (5 straight) this has the makings of a wild one or a scoreless clunker. taking the O1.5 @+105 (2nd half)
EDIT: why not? if they somehow manage to pull this off theyll get Klopps bench squad in San Siro in two weeks with decent chance to advance due to tiebreak rules. either way, its a nice hedge. spilt the risk in half and take Milan to advance @+2400  the h*ll with trying to figure this one out. 

Sheriff/Real - agreed. not even looking at lineups. Real were embarrassed by the football world. and when you llok at table, they could actually not advance if they dont grab the 3 pts here cause Sheriff would own the tiebreaker if they finish level on points. enough of that, this has the makings of a classic royal IOU "thumping" as Moldavans have their FULL attention this time. Real TT O2.5 @-115 

Besitkas/Ajjax - Turks officially elminated from even UEL, Dutch squad clincehd 1st. bunch of eggs in table for Besitkas. im taking a shot at this as Dutch side have nothing to play for.: Besitkas TT O1 @+124, +1/2 @+170

Kiev/Munich - of all the clubs..... agreed, looks like "fun" to back the Ukranians at those prices. after all, this is a meaningless one for the Germans. but I am not fading Bayern. a lesson learned the hard way and with Kiev needing a result - aka cannot park the bus- spells massive trouble. same exact situation 2 years ago vs another mid-tier (Crvena) 1-0 at the half, bang in 5 in 2nd as home side foreced to open it up (Lew had 4 himself) if you remember. no thanks. if/when they fall behind, Ukranians will have to chase the game and apply ball pressure, which is a recipe for another thumping. Kiev to score @-124, O1.5 @+410

EDIT: cazzo!!!!!! that sacking wrecked my thought process. im still keeping both of these. but yes, agreed.
Villareal/ManU whats a Liga side doing in the mid 200s @home in this thing? they even grabbed pts vs Real & Atletico already this year, yet have handsomely blown chunks in those sandwich spots for us this which explains why theyre in bottom half of Liga table. tossed some on Villareal @+240 on that merit alone. and as Aless made a good point, people forgetting CR7 REALLY gets up for those matches when he visits his former stomping grounds he spent the previous decade destroying. flapping his mouth all night long you guys remember; banged in 2 from the spot in Camp Nou, assists in Wanda, red carded in a half hour vs Villareal and since ManU havent kept anybody out of net and have conceded 2+ in of their past 6 roadies in this thing the price on this should have more juice attached so taking the O2.5 @-115
EDIT: me too. not quite sure how United going to react here, Ole didnt get sacked because of the UCL results, it was domestics. and at the time im typing theyre searching/without a HC, so whomever they choose isnt going to have enough time. and with a trip to Stamford Bridge coming up makes this impossible to figure out. but my melon thinks we get SOME kind of reaction.
look at the bright side, at least we'll have a good excuse if this blows up in face.

Spec   No worries, bumping your own thread is very en vogue here! 

Am on the Villareal over myself, which may or may not be a comfort to you.  Hope all is well and good luck with the plays! 

City/PSG - Finals preview Part II? cant remember the prices we threw some on that at start. how these two were put in same group is beyond me, but theyll be on opposite sides of the bracket once KOs start. City could play for the point here, but when was the last time you seen an EPL team play for the draw @home? besides, they were cleansheeted in Round 2. when was last time Peps lads were cleansheeted twice to same opponent?  PASS. for now. 

Brugge/Leip - Belgian side just not getting ANY respect. they might not/wont do it but they could put themsevles in the spot to knock out PSG. win in Germany and open mid-200s for this one? yeah, Leip has more quality, and that UEL slot will there for the taking, theyll need to win by 2+ here cause they scr*wed up at home. for Brugge, PSG & City couldnt cleansheet them here, so no reason to think the Germans can/will. if Germans really want that UEL spot then this is a good candidate for one of those "things going sideways" kind of matches once someone falls behind. heading into this one 'blind' but going to take a shot with Leip TT O1.5 @-124. Leip have held just one under 2 goals on road past 2 years - keeping in mind that theyve played ManU, Pool, City, and PSG twice). 2nd half over is probably a better play but too juiced for me. so tossing some on the O3.5 @+154

Malmo/Zenit - mathematically, the Russians can still advance. but that will require winning this one and beating Tuchels side (assuming Chelsea loses to our lads). so this is going to be for the UEL slot. Swedes need 3 points, Russians jjust need the draw. yes, that egg in the 'GF' column; normally wait till next week (better prices for sure) but will take these here. Malmo TT O1 @-128, Malmo +1/2 @-110

GL to all 

Ganda     hope all is well. i had that one pegged and then they go out and sack Ole  gosh Ganda... whatever happened to waiting till winter break anymore?  i am tempted to take Brugge but cant pull trigger.  i got a question for ya. ill open diff thread so as not to clutter this up.   

Tailed you on Young Boys, great pick, thanks, man!

Bee    well, that helped. Atalanta blows yet another CL lead (twice actually). 

a decent evening. curious to see how all these other Serie A clubs respond. what happened at Stamford was exactly what we thought would happen. with the way United are approaching these matches they can go deep in this thing. but their supporters will demand improvement domestically first. agree, Kiev should have had 3 ehh??? 

Chelsea to win @-120, -1 @+140 (W W)
YB/Atalanta Young Boys pick @+145 (1st half), 2nd half O1.5 @-122, over 1.5 @+315(both halves) (P W W)
Kiev to score @-124, O1.5 @+410 (P, L)
Villareal @+240, O2.5 @-115 (L, L)
Malmo TT O1 @-128, Malmo +1/2 @-110 (P, W)

Pending:

Shakhtar +1.5 @-102
Madrid/Milan O1.5 @+105 (2nd half), Milan to advance @+2400
Real TT O2.5 @-115
Besitkas TT O1 @+124, +1/2 @+170
Leip TT O1.5 @-124, O3.5 @+154

sweet. take an under in the Napoli match and theres a PK in 1st minute? so thats how this night going to go? 

not sure how overlooked this one but too late to make play as line moved. but with all of Dortmunds missings (especially Hummel) and now Hazard ruled out (Covid). theyre already struggling in front of net with Haav absence . my melon thinks Rose parks it and plays for the point. (theyll win the tiebreaker) but Dort cant keep cleansheets on the road in this thing. so similar to what just witnessed in Bern, when two teams need to win and someone takes the lead, things start going sideways.. since its still at '+' ill take a shot and add Sporting/Dort O1.5 @+110 (2nd half)

GL to all 

Thnx for sharing picks and knowledge sir. BOL as always! 

AC to advance 

cheers Spec!

And   appreciate the kind words and tks fer stopping by 

Buck  wont even be able to hedge that due to tiebreaker scenario.  even worse is at the start threw some on all 4 Serie A to advance. going to be an interesting holiday.

Shakhtar +1.5 @-102 (L)
Madrid/Milan O1.5 @+105 (2nd half), Milan to advance @+2400 (L, Pending)
Real TT O2.5 @-115 (W)
Besitkas TT O1 @+124, +1/2 @+170 (P, L)
Leip TT O1.5 @-124, O3.5 @+154 (W, W)

Sporting/Dort O1.5 @+110 (2nd half) (W)