WED Champions League Plays

Covers Posted Soccer: 92-69 +48.85 units

AC Milan v Barcelona over 2.5/3 -116 to win 2 units

AC Milan takes on Barcelona today in a game that sees Milan try to get the job done without cup-tied Balotelli.

There are a few keys to this game that might end up being Milan ’s shortcomings in this game. Although I bleed red and black through and through, the reality is, Milan is really going to be up against it this round with Barcelona .

First off, as I already mentioned, the player who has been a spark plug to this team since his signing from Manchester City , Mario Balotelli cannot play in this game because he started the competition with another club. Also, two very important members of the Milan midfield will be out of this game; Flamini and Nocerino due to nagging injuries. That means that Allegri will call on aging captain Mario Abrosini to take a midfield spot with Montolivo, perhaps their best at that position. Allegri was still unsure of the rest of his midfield as of yesterday.

Expect pure striker Pazzini to get the start up front with converted center forward El Shaarawy taking up the left side of the 4-3-3 attack that has helped Milan climb back into contention in Serie A. This leads me to my other concern for Milan . Whereas Barcelona is cut and dry the leaders and hands on favourites to win La Liga, meaning this competition can deserve to get all of its attention, Milan has been playing every game in Serie A lately with great meaning and importance having climbed out of the middle of the pack and fighting with 3 other teams for a shot at qualifying for a champions league spot. In that regard, Barcelona might be the more mentally rested team for this game. There is a positive for Milan however in this scenario and that is that they have been playing some great football of late whereas Barcelona has looked somewhat bored in La Liga having built up such an insurmountable lead for the domestic title.

On defence, Allegri said in yesterday’s press conference that Abate, Mexes, Zapata and Constant will play. This is not the defence of old for AC Milan. If you’ve followed my write ups on AC Milan games over the course of the season then you know about the woes they are experiencing defensively. It seems no matter how hard they try, they are very prone to conceding, even bad goals. This might come back to haunt them today unless these players have the game of their lives. We saw how Celtic almost upset Barcelona in the group stages but we also saw what happened when the pressure was turned up a notch in their game against Juventus last week.

The truth is, Milan will not keep Barcelona off the score sheet. How comfortable a lead will Barcelona want to take back with them is the key though. Will they be happy with one or will they want to kill this aggregate tie in the first game much in the same way that Bayern Munich and Juventus killed those ties in their first away legs.

....continued .....

Allegri said in his press conference that they need a result out of Milan . Truth be told, to stand a chance back at Barcelona in game two, Milan will need to score in this game. They must push forward and take the game to Barcelona and not try to defend for 90 minutes because any Milan fan knows that this team cannot defend for 90 minutes. They would be asking for trouble if that is the approach they take. Iniesta should have lots of space in the midfield to look for Messi who alone can do damage against this weak central defence of Milan.

Milan’s last 5 games overall in all competitions has seen them score 12 goals but conceding 5 for as I mentioned earlier, a goal a game average. Barcelona has scored 10 goals in their last 5 in all competitions while allowing 8. This is why I do feel that Milan will find the back of the net. Barcelona will concede. The real test with them is limiting their offensive output.

Milan has allowed 31 goals in 25 domestic games this season for a greater than a goal against average. They have scored 44. At home, domestically, they have scored 22 in 13 games while allowing 12. As for Barcelona , they have allowed 27 goals in 24 La Liga games but have scored an incredible 80 goals in this 24 La Liga games including 40 goals in their 13 domestic road games.

Barcelona scored 11 goals in their 6 group phase games. Milan scored 7 in their 6 group stage games. Barcelona was 6th with 61 attempts on target in those 6 games though so they will get a lot of shots on goal. Remember what I said about Milan ’s defence. Milan had 46 attempts on target in their 6 group stage games. 23 of Milan ’s 46 attempts though were from within the area so they have been getting better quality chances at goal. All in all, Barcelona is averaging 16.7 shots on goal in this competition with Milan not too far behind at 15.3 shots on goal per game. Should these teams play to their averages, expect many chances on target. Both teams will employ attack minded 4-3-3 formations.

My models make Barcelona 3-1 winners in two projections, 2-1 winners in another and surprisingly, one model spits out a 2-2 final in this first leg.

Today’s reports indicate that Nocernino might be risked for Milan in the midfield with Montolivo and Ambrosini. The front 3 should be Pazzini, El Sha and Niang. The back 4 as indicated. The most probable starting lineup for Barcelona is their 4-3-3 with Valdes - Alves, Pique, Puyol, Alba - Xavi, Busquets, Fabregas - Pedro, Messi, Iniesta.

I expect perhaps a tight start but the game to open up quickly with the first goal. Barcelona will win possession…that’s just the way they play. Milan will try to keep men behind the ball but Barcelona ’s ticky tack approach will break them. My heart is wishing and praying for a draw or surprise win for Milan but the realist in me knows it is a tall order. However, I do favour this game to open up at some point and produce goals.

I managed to get this game in last night at the 2.5/3 number. I would play this game at 3 so long as plus money is being offered to me.

Good luck

0-2 -4.66 units on the day

BUT .... AC MILAN made my day!!!!

UPDATED: Covers Posted Soccer: 92-71 +44.19units