Wednesday plays..... UCL thoughts

Question

back in a min.

specimen24 · Answer

back in a min.

specimen24 · Answer

cars, traffic lights, crosswalks, storefronts, and boats. cmon Covers..... cazzo!!!

decent day yesterday. 4-4 an little on the '+' side. shoulda taken the under with napoli for the full ride. and 2 boneheaded late mistakes costed me with Crvena.

Pool & Tott supporters might have needed a little CPR too.

WHERE'S MICHAEL???

(aka, Mr. Armpits)??? heading into today w/out my 'safety net/security blanket of at least having one winner. mustve been hospitalized with severe chapped lips from blowing the whistle soo much.

weather is just PEACHY in Bern right now.

over 1.5 FUN Parlay @+337 - sensing a boatload of goals today for some reason even though 6th rounders are bloody tough to predict as they can be those scoreboard-watching, lead-protecting days.

(of all these matches, the "Mou Special" concerns me the most)

Plzen/Roma - Czechs still have UEL spot to shoot for, so expect a 200% effort from them here. Roma? theyre 1) in some nasty, voodoo-like hex 2) a lengthy injury list 3) and DiFran about to become unemployed if things dont turn around. but todays match is meaningless in regards to the Group table for them and hes sending out a bunch of reserves.

Plzen were destroyed in Rome, so that angle from ystdays thread kind of kicks in as well a little here (though not really necessary). bottom line is Roma still has the ability to score vs this kind of opponent, and Plzen hasnt kept a cleansheet in 10 straight CL matches since '16 but theyll play their hearts out for that UEL slot.

Plzen/Roma over 2.5 @-115

Real/CSKA - lines for everything continues to drop like a brick. can CSKA score here? does Real even care? theyre coming in with a mixed lineup but theres enough pedigree within their ranks to see this opponent off. plus, they lost in Moscow. if the HT/FT comes down any lower then i might take a shot at that, otherwise the rest is a PASS.

EDIT: it came down, Real HT/FT @-135

specimen24 · Answer

Valencia/ManU - I give up figuring out Mou's squad. PASS.

Young Boys/Juventus - (taking off tinted glasses). superstitions? we all have them (this is an extended one but Ill just use the recent years). 3 years ago went to Seville for 6th Round, Allegri brought his little playbook which he NEVER strays from as we sat back int the little 'horseshoe' formation. lost. dropped us to 2nd as City overtook us. instead of having a date with Kiev, we get Munich..... bye bye UCL. last year got stuck behind Barca, 2nd place again & a lovely ulcer inducing match vs Tott where Allegri brought out his little playbook again and we're off to England needing a 'w'. then get Real....bye bye UCL.

so here we are, yet again another 6th Rounder with 1st place at stake. been listening to Allegri all week long, brought up the importance of securing 1st several times; which he RARELY does. If ManU wins + we draw I do believe they take over first place. theres our motivation right there.

***** been hearing a LOT of people talking about "meaningless matches". the importance of securing first place is HUGE. (mentioned this in ystdays thread and gonna say it again here). it doesnt "guarantee" anything but ManC, Juve, and Bayern all have a chance to avoid one another next round - and you can throw in PSG, Barca & Real into that convo too as they are sitting at the top as well) - PLUS, get to have the 2nd leg at home. you better believe Pep, Max, and Niko understand the importance of that and should be sending out strong lineups. whether these teams are able to secure 1st or not isnt the point im trying to make....... but enough of this "meaningless" junk. cazzo!!!!! ******

Juve on another one of their cleansheet runs, 5 now and counting...but I think it might stop here for two BIG reasons: 1) the playing surface in Bern is artificial. its one of the reasons theyve been able to hold teams at home (ManU got 3 here but 1 was a PK whilst another a deflection). but the faster playing field has also helped them be able to score and i think we are gonna have a tough time defending on this turf tonight. 2) Chiellini is out. cannot emphasize the importance of him to our defense. amongst 10 other reasons, one of them is the fact Bonucci is gonna have to slide over and thats always an adventure.

we're all suprised to see the lines soo low on the 2.5; its 150+s locally. on top of everything else, we beat these guys at home 3-0...... without Ronaldo (suspension). Dybala banged in 3 and they had a hard time dealing with him. so what does Allegri do? rests him tonight. geez. we feel its time for Christian to earn some of that paycheck hes getting.

YB/Juve over 2.5 @-115

(and yes, the 2-0 exact score will be done again)

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Spec - GL today buddy.  I saw that in 10 of their last 11 CL matches, CSKA has either scored or allowed 2&#x2B; goals.  I see Real getting the 2 and beyond.  This might be a rout even with Real not needing to rout at this point

Ihaveissues · Answer

So to be clear, including Juve in ML parlays is advised?

Dhevoni · Answer

Yes, Juve will not lose this one and Ronaldo is expected to start

specimen24 · Answer

Ajax/Munich - first leg was a 1-1 draw in Munich. dont think that gonna happen again. Though Ajax admirably played the counter-attack strategy well the first time around & attacked Bayern --- which is something the 'big boy' teams arent used to seeing at home --- Munich was in a team-wide funk. though the line has slowly come down for the home side, I also dont think Ajax is going to win either; Munich has awoken from their slumber and scoring for fun again. few months ago when they were taking a lot of cr*p for their performances, told buddies theyre gonna be in the Qtrs - they might be slower & older but dont ever count out the value of 'experience' in the UCL. Dutch guys no slouches either as theyve banged in 21 in their past 5 matches, not to mention have yet to be cleansheeted during Groups. worth a shot.

Ajax/Munich over 3 @evens

Benefica/AEK - YAWN. PASS.

ManC/Hoff - last 2 years City were in the position to rest starters and rotate their lineup. they did. and also didnt win either match (Shakhtar & Celtic). however, Lyon still has a chance to catch them (not saying they can/will); but that chance is there so Im expecting a fairly strong lineup Pep sends out. tho' I dont like the fact DeBruyne & Aguero are still out and MORE IMPORTANTLY Silva is/was doubtful. but geez... Hoff still got a chance to lock down that UEL spot, and their style of play is like a neon sign flashing to take the over. the BTTS has hit in 7 straight matches for them, h*ll.....ALL 7 of their UCL games since last year hit too. but im leery of this, if Lyon losing, City can simply coast and play 'keep-away'. yet still..giving me near evens on this? OK, Ill bite.....

ManC/Hoff over 3.5 @-102, and tossing a little on Hoff +1.5 @+106 (similar to ystdays adventure with Crvena, one of these should hit)

Shakhtar/Lyon - have a decent 'future' amount on the Ukranians advancing. and they'll do just that if they can get the 'w' here. letting this one ride, at least up until halftime. Shakhtar are bloody tough at home, only the "big-boy" teams have managed to beat them here (PSG, ManC, Real) in recent years. so its a good thing the French side doesnt need a 'w', has 4 straight high-scoring draws, but Lyon going to "park the bus" here (or at least TRY to) and preserve 2nd place. in the reverse fixture in front of an empty stadium in France, Lyon found themselves down 0-2. this is going to be extremely important for Lyon today, because these Ukranians have never dropped the full 3 pts at home when theyve scored first (and theyve played some pretty big clubs these past few years). this could end up being a slugfest. PASS

(will toss something on Lyon at the half if Shak is leading)

lets see how this day turns out.

GL to all

specimen24 · Answer

Settle

i just see goals today. didnt really set out that "seeking" them. each match is individual and unto itself.... be geez, gotta admit. it does make me

ONLY because its the 6th round. and truth be told, the 'big-boys' ALL dont/might not need to win to secure 1st.

Ihave, to be CLEAR.......... dont do parlays. i dont make those decisions for others. thats on you.

Dhevoni

"will not lose".doesnt mean they will win. so yes, I agree.

DestroyThePitch · Answer

Man, I really hate being opposite you on some of these plays (City mainly) I just don't think Hoff's style play into their favor vs City at home.

Anyway... I sucked yesterday, so you're probably golden! haha

BOL

GamblingKafka · Answer

Hoped to see you on ajax. I have to be stubborn on this, don&#x27;t think bayern&#x27;s wins against benfica or nuremberg prove anything. They are still too stagnant on offense imo, which will serve ajax, who are excellent in controlling the pace of a game. Just have to back them here, though it could be an emotional pick.  Have a good night spec

DestroyThePitch · Answer

I think if Bayern NEEDED the win, I&#x27;d agree with you.  But they can settle for a draw and win the group (pretty sure I read the standings correct ).  I won&#x27;t have a dog in this fight and will certainly be rooting for Ajax.  But idk if I could put my money on them with them needing the W.

specimen24 · Answer

DTP

stick with ur guts and dont sweat what other might be on. this is the UCL after all. can make one look/feel like a complete idiot sometimes. (trust me, I know)

Kafka

you sound like me with Roma

(whom have been hosing me all year long)

DestroyThePitch · Answer

Spec   I&#x27;m right there with ya.  I get crushed on the reg in group stages of Champions League.  You are a very good capper tho.  And have a lot of knowledge that I try and glean almost every day you post.  So I value your opinion As long as the over happens in the City game, I&#x27;ll be happy lol

GamblingKafka · Answer

DestroyThe Pitch, i think you misunderstood me here. My mistake though, with "being on ajax" i didn't mean backing them on th money line, but on the asian handicap of +0,5. Ajax will play for the win here, they want to avoid the big behemoths too and i just don't want to back bayern in this spot, where as you stated, they don't really need the win here and will be looking ahead for the buli for sure...

GamblingKafka · Answer

And i think ajax on the other hand, are very capable of playing with exceeded expactations. They are not the typical cinderella story underdog, i believe. Some of their players will be considered world class in a few years. I strongly believe they could cause any team problems. But we will see, gl tonight

specimen24 · Answer

heading out soon..... just curious..... you guys ever had that one player (not team), whom just has this uncanny ability to blow up whatever it is ur on? (can be any sport too, hockey, football, basketball, golf... whatever)

Benzema is annoying as someone running their fingernails down a chalkboard for me.

take an under? he bangs in an injury time goal. take an 'over'? he'll miss a sitter. passes when he should shoot, shoots when he should pass and runs around like a chicken with its head cut off.

i think a lot of this stuff was camouflaged a lot thru the years cuz Real had Christian to "repair" ... the "problems". but now that hes gone...... man is this stuff front & center.

russians are up 2-0 so he gets 'overlooked' once again. but just watch, he'll bang one in right after the whistle blows.

(flipping on tinted glasses)

FORZA Juve!!!

yorosan · Answer

Hey spec, actually I have a discussion with my friend and he keep reminding me that every season CL wise, the last 2 rounds are the most difficult to win $$, upsets , not sure which team has motivation, etc and all you can do is to fade the top teams, can&#x2019;t believe cska have swept RM....and the first 3 rounds, usually the best to have a better read on the games, in fact it&#x2019;s true, I&#x2019;ve lost since last round lol.....finally comes to an end today ....nice to see you on hoff n they just scored, good luck on that

specimen24 · Answer

decent day going 4-2, missed the parlay by a hair and saved the stress hedging Shak/Lyon at the half for a profit there.

yoro

thats itwhat I was alluding to in regards to the 6th rounds. need to pare down the risk cause situations change mid-game. Juve is a beaut example of it. the second Valencia went up vs ManU we just stopped playing. when Val was 2-0, i thought our over was shot. wasnt till Max put Dybala in did we start playing and within minutes he bangs one in. cant complain, it was a 'throw away' kind of match already securing 1st as ManU was losing. and in a way, im glad we lost simply so certain people, especially the media, out here and shut the (bleep) up about it now. (lol)

CSKA & Roma are what happens when teams give out 200% effort vs opponents whom were wishing they had the day off.

adding one quickly. took the '2' in the Lib last wknd for a Push and doing the same here as its a 2nd leg Final.

Copa Sud:

Atletico/Junior over 2 @-133 have a lean with Atletico but this will do.

Wednesday plays..... UCL thoughts

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