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Thoughts on OLG Props for Super Bowl XLV

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Posted: #1
It'll be another week before OLG puts the card out, so figured I'd put up the 5dimes lines for now in case anyone wanted to talk them over.

AARON RODGERS PASSES COMPLETED
*22.5 Over -125 / Under +105

BEN ROETHLISBERGER PASSES COMPLETED
*18.5 Over -125 / Under +105

GREG JENNINGS TOTAL RECEPTIONS
*5 Over -135/ Under +115

HINES WARD TOTAL RECEPTIONS
*3.5 Over +100 / Under -120

QB SACKS MADE
*4.5 Over -170 / Under +140

FUMBLES LOST
*No such prop, but it's always 1.5 on the Props cards.

LONGEST RUSH
*Not available, but it's usually around 23.5, 24.5.

LONGEST PASS COMPLETED
*Not available, but I'm going to guess 48.5.

LONGEST FIELD GOAL MADE
*43.5 Over -110 / Under -110

LONGEST PUNT RETURN
*Not available, but I'm going to guess 16.5.

1ST HALF POINTS
*22 Over -110 / Under -110

2ND HALF POINTS
*Game total's at 44, so it's safe to assume the 2nd Half will be set at 21.5
 
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Posted: #2
Right now, I'm zeroed in on Big Ben Over, Sacks Over, and Longest Pass Over. Back in a few days once I get a chance to look over the stats.


 
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Posted: #3
Big Ben over
 
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Posted: #4
Sacks over for certain for me......these two teams ranked first and second in sacks during the regular season.  Figure Ben will go down 4 times.  Last time they played (2009) there were 6 sacks in the game.

Hugh....what are your thoughts on Rodgers and Jennings over.  With the Pack not being able to run the ball against these guys, what else is left?
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Allbutbroke:

Hugh....what are your thoughts on Rodgers and Jennings over.  With the Pack not being able to run the ball against these guys, what else is left?
The one thing I've always noticed is that if I don't have a solid read on the game, my picks are pretty much doomed to failure and, right now, I really don't have a strong opinion on this game. I do sort of like the Packers to win, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be on account of Rodgers and Jennings (they will have to be able to run the ball, or at least look like they're willing to); if anything, I would expect Jennings to get a lot of double coverage, meaning Donald Driver becomes the Number 1 option but, like I said, I really don't know.


 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by hugh613:

The one thing I've always noticed is that if I don't have a solid read on the game, my picks are pretty much doomed to failure and, right now, I really don't have a strong opinion on this game. I do sort of like the Packers to win, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be on account of Rodgers and Jennings (they will have to be able to run the ball, or at least look like they're willing to); if anything, I would expect Jennings to get a lot of double coverage, meaning Donald Driver becomes the Number 1 option but, like I said, I really don't know.


Great points........I agree, having confidence in which side wins certainly helps determine which qbs and/or receivers are playing catchup.  This one is really tough.  Bordio is great capper and he is solid on the under - I definitely trust him.  That said, these two matched up for 70 plus points in 2009. 

This is a tough one for sure.  I probably will play one ticket on sacks over, jennings over and Rodgers over but there is lots of time to figure this one out.

 
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Posted: #7
steelers...... are going to take them to the woodshed ......going to be a blow out i see green bay scrambling maybe late touchdown field goal make it respectable and make game closer actually was.....rogers gets ton yards late

i like longest rush O 23.5 .....
 
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Posted: #8
This is going to be a great game... Pitt can defend against the Packers spread passing offense, and GB will have problems stopping the run.  HOWEVER, if the Steelers rookie stud centre Pouncey can't go, it gives a slight advantage to GB who have a decent front 4 of their own.  Raji is a monster in the middle.  Onto the props: 

Rodgers OVER 24.5
Longest Pass OVER 44.5 

Still feeling out the rest, but feel reel good about these. 

GO PACKERS... 

Packers 27
Steelers 20   F
 
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Posted: #9
Played 3 tickets....

Keyed Driver under (the Greek has the under 4.5 -180....heavy juice on the under) and Starks under (how can anyone run against the Steelers) with:
1.  PTR under
2.  Long pass over

and added one more
Rogers over
Jennings over
Sacks over

Good luck gents
 
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Posted: #10
Looks like a good ticket Allbutbroke... thanks for the heads up on the juiced Driver prop... very interesting. 
 
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Posted: #11
A week later, and nothing's changed...

BEN ROETHLISBERGER PASS COMPLETIONS OVER 20.5 @ 1.75
*Little higher than what I would have liked, but the more I think about it, the more I expect the Packers to have a two score lead heading into the 4th quarter, which should help this out a lot.
QUARTERBACK SACKS MADE OVER 5.5 @ 1.90
*With C Maurkice Pouncey out, Roethlisberger might be good for this all on his own.
LONGEST PASS COMPLETION OVER 44.5 @ 1.60
*Between Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings, we should get a minimum 4 to 5 cracks at what really is a very low number considering.

Thought about Longest Field Goal Over and Fumbles Under as well but, in the end, it's usually best just to stick with your initial instincts.

5.32 X $100 = $532



Good Luck Everyone!
 
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Posted: #12


Oh well... At least I made it back on my Packers bet. Not that surprised we didn't get the longest pass (freakin' James Jones). VERY surprised we didn't get the sacks.

Good luck with hockey guys.


 
 
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Posted: #13

Same for me...missed the props, hit the side.

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