21st pick selection..........all thoughts welcome.

First off I would like to congratulate Tuppy, and Freightdog as well, on their amazing accomplishments. I wish you nothing but good luck on your final pick. As I read through some of the posts I am intrigued by the many different thoughts on how to utilize the 21st pick, with many on the side of hedging. Tuppy made it sound as if he was not going that route, which is completely acceptable. This thread, however, deals with the 21st selection were you to hedge. And the only way to do that effectively, in my opinion, is to bet a MLB ML. The only way to ENSURE making money on this final pick is to wager it on MLB, more importantly the ML. Only in this will you have a sure winner/loser. We use Tuppy's pick for an example. In order to hedge this bet to ensure a winner/loser on both sides, you would have to have the exact same line in Vegas. Say you go to Vegas and now get LA at +4.5 (example only as I see the line actually going the other way). Phoenix ends up winning the game by 5. Now you've lost your hedge bet, with still no guarantee of winning your next wagerline pick. And worst case scenario, say the line moves all the way down to LA +3.5 (again highly unlikely, just an example) and Phoenix wins by 4. You have now lost both. The same could happen with an o/u. By betting baseball you have completely eliminated the possibilty of anything but you winning money. By betting the fave at wagerline and the dog at Vegas, you have all the bases (no pun intended) covered. By betting anything with a spread you are bringing into play other possibilities of which I have mentioned. Allbeit rare possibilites, possibilites nonetheless. By betting baseball you guarantee yourself a winner/loser, and eliminate all other factors. The dog and favorite will still be the same in Vegas. Either I am way off base on this, or maybe there is something to this, just a thought. Anyways, Good Luck Tuppy! ||win.gif' border=0>||win.gif' border=0>

I agree esp if you have a big dog, for example Kansas city when thy are +240 or so, less of a hedge bet needed since you are getting positive money. I must add, I will most likely never be in their position and respect whatever they choose to do and will never have the entitled feeling that I have the right to second guess or criticize their 21st pick.whatever it may be.

Wow... long post for something I think everyone realizes. Smart bet for hedging is MLB or NHL favorite on wagerline and the dog in Vegas.

jdkid... wagerline only has favs up to -130 so you won't have the luxury of your +240 dog.

As i said and guess just proved I will never be in that position||an_wink.gif' border=0>

I guess that's why I was curious, just saw a lot of advice for picks other than baseball, even if he was hedging. Tuppy has said no baseball and no hedge, which makes his pick fine. Just didn't understand some of the advice.

I've been following Tuppy since day one...I bet $10..and for each pick I have been just doubling up...if we win tonite...that is almost 21 million for me !!!

that is something i find impossible to believe, from day 1 i think not