Should You Tail Survivor Streaks?

I looked at the streaks from 9 in a row up to 21 in a row. I figured out how many cappers went past a certain streak if they made it that far. In other words, if 100 cappers made it to a 15 game winning streak, what percentage of them made it to 16. This will tell you how successful you wouldve been if you tailed them. The first no. is the streak length. The % beside it is the percentage of cappers that made it past that number if they were lucky enough to get to that point. So, if theres 20 cappers w/ a 16 game winning streak and I say the win % is 56.3%, that means 9 of that 16 made it to a 17 game winning streak. 21 What % that made it to 21 made it past 21? 0% 20 33% 19 42.9% 18 58.3% 17 54.5% 16 56.4% I wondered if the $1,000 incentive wouldve increased the success rate of making it from 16 to 17 and it appears theres an ever so slight bump. 15 55.7% 14 55.1% 13 54.3% 12 54.8% 11 50.7% 10 52.7% 9 55.5% I also thought thered be a bump if they were trying to get to double digit win streak, 10, and it appears there was a slight bump. According to this, you'd tail all but those that have a 10, 11, 19, 20 and 21 game win streak. Maybe even avoid the 12 and 13. Those at 55% or better are: 18 58.3% 16 56.4% 15 55.7% 9 55.5% 14 55.1% 55% might not sound like that much, but some people actually LOSE many when betting!!! LOL Also, I dont buy into the blindly following someone unless theyre REEEEAAAALLLL good. If you start from the point of look at these cappers at Survivor, at least you know youre probably picking from 55% winners versus when you look at the lines for the day and its 50/50. ANY head start is a BIG plus! Oh, heres the numbers on how many made it to each streak: 21 - 1 20 - 2 19 - 4 18 - 5 17 - 10 16 - 17 15 - 31 14 - 57 13 - 107 12 - 193 11 - 415 10 - 756 9 - 1,282 So stay between 14 and 18 and then consider those w/ 9 in a row. I'm gonna look at some lower #'s later. Also, It'd be interesting to see how successful a consensus among top streakers would look like.

Someone should get a job||thumbs_up.gif' border=0>

thats what im trying to avoid, a job! of course, ive had a job the last 25 yrs, but id rather do what i love!!

Wow, amazing work. ||thumbs_up.gif' border=0> What I'm curious about is, are those numbers on how many made it to each streak individual people, or are those the number of times each streak level has been hit? I'm just thinking that some (very lucky) people have hit some streak levels more than once.

over||an_smash.gif' border=0>

awesome post ||win.gif' border=0>

Great stats...that deserves a round of drinks on the house||an_cheers.gif' border=0>

For those in the area between 9 wins and 17 wins (after this sample size is too small), there seem to be three key numbers. The 10th and 17th wins have a 58.8% and 58.9% survival rate respectively. And the 12th win stands out in a negative way with only a 46.5% survival rate. The remaining numbers between 9 and 17 wins all fall within a general 53.3-55.8% range.

yea, i got to thinking about lots of variables and it really make all this inconclusive. Youve got the dropouts. Surely there must be some that had 9 in a row that didnt get their next pick in on time. Even if it is only 2%, that makes a difference. Also, like someone above said, some may have hit the streak twice. That means that if someone hit the streak twice and didnt make it past it, then its just showing up as one capper not making it to the next level when its actually a capper not making it to the next level 2 times! If they fail twice instead of once, that makes for MUCH less success. Things are ALWAYS more complicated when begin to think about it. Darkhorse, whered you get your stats?

I got the stats from you. lol

So I took 752/1282 to get the percentage of 10 game winners from the 9 game crowd.

pairunoyd, I think it's an excellent post, congratulations! Another thing that I've noticed is the individual record of each participant. Some are at the top of the list with 14 or 15 correct bets in a row but have very poor overall records...some consistantly get 6, 7 or 8 in a row and have great "Survivor" records (55% hit rate or above) in their overall picks there. It might be interesting to look at that as well. Cheers.

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dark, it doesnt work that way. the people that made it past 9 or 10 or whatever, doesnt simply include the people that made it to the next streak level above it, but includes ALL people above it. If you wanna know how many went from 9 to 10, you look at how many made 9 their highest streak level. You take that number and divide it by those that made it to not only 10, but 11 thru 21. If they got to 10, 11, 12, 13, 14....21...then they HAD to make it to 9. So any streakers greater than 9 must be assumed to have made a successful pick when their streak was at 9. But like i said, unfortunately i didnt think about those that may have made it to 9 more than once. So if someone makes it to 9 3 times and finally gets to 10, then although itll appear they were 100% successfully capping from a 9th level to a 10th, theyre actually only 33% successful. BUT, you also have to consider how many time they may have actually beaten 9. They may have gotten past it twice. Soooo, it probably evens out. One other thing i thought of that possibly makes tailing more successful than it appears, when youre discussing stuff like people at the lower streak level - attrition rate. How many people w/ 9 in a row for whatever reason never made that 10th pick. They couldve died. They couldve gotten girlfriend, religion, a life. LOL So even if only 2% dropped out, thatd be a VERY significant upward bump in the tailing success rate, unless theres ANOTHER unforeseen complication I havent considered. Im telling, stuff that starts out seemingly simple can get sooooooo deep. Man my God is an AWESOME God!!! ||an_clap.gif' border=0>

I always look at the top 50 or 100 depending on the streaks and see whos back up grinding that I have seen before. then i check the ratio of wins to losses and if it's good Ill watch that person. if they start to streak early, and get a good one going, you can really build. some of these guys get 4-6 in a row all the time with only 2 losses here and there. If theyve got a huge record and are way over .500, you can just constantly bet the same price and probably come out ahead over time. sometimes ill make a bet and let it ride for 4 or 5 on these guys, if you dont like their pick or have conflicting picks you can just bank what you've made and start over

I would rather lose than follow someone else. What fun is there if you are not even thinking for yourself. That's just me, I am a little too competitive but my stats are not lol.

Great job Pairunoyd. I have thought about this angle many times and have tailed a few leaders but never had solid numbers behind it. Keep up the good work! 

i should make a forum on the stats and people i follow. its outlandish. moman has a sick ratio for instance

LORCET10

Is there a way to look up people on here that have great win percentages on streak survivor?  Such as someone that has a 57% or better win percentage with over 2000+ total games picked?  It would be interesting to see how well some people have done over such a long period of time.

It's all about using all the resources you can acquire, i use tailing as just one of many pieces of the puzzle. Patience is also a great ingredient and i do better when i study.... GL all...

interesting

I built a 9 gamer this month

just blew it on the Yankees

have not hit double digits once this year, a lot of streaks in 6-9 range