2 game chase anti sweep

Question

Basically this system is playing against the sweep

System play if... Fav wins first game of 3 game series or first 2 games of 4 game series. Then you would play the other team to win SU in the final 2 games of the series.
Game 1- 1U
Game 2- 1.5 U
If the fav ends up sweeping, u have lost 2.5 units and carry this over to their next series.

ex.// Yankees vs..

Toronto W
Toronto system play game 1 yanks to lose 1 unit
Toronto system play game 2 yanks to lose 1.5 units

Yankees sweep the jays and play the Royals next
Royals L
Royals game 1 of sytem yanks to win 2 units
Royals Game 2 yanks to win 4 units

if you have lost all 4 games.. u will be down -8.5 units

Indians W
Indians yanks to lose 6units
Indians yanks to lose 10 units

PicKnRole · Answer

Basically this system is playing against the sweep

System play if... Fav wins first game of 3 game series or first 2 games of 4 game series. Then you would play the other team to win SU in the final 2 games of the series.
Game 1- 1U
Game 2- 1.5 U
If the fav ends up sweeping, u have lost 2.5 units and carry this over to their next series.

ex.// Yankees vs..

Toronto W
Toronto system play game 1 yanks to lose 1 unit
Toronto system play game 2 yanks to lose 1.5 units

Yankees sweep the jays and play the Royals next
Royals L
Royals game 1 of sytem yanks to win 2 units
Royals Game 2 yanks to win 4 units

if you have lost all 4 games.. u will be down -8.5 units

Indians W
Indians yanks to lose 6units
Indians yanks to lose 10 units

PicKnRole · Answer

since only about 20 percent of all series sweep , this can be very profitable with the right units sizes .. does this make sense guys?

Leprechaun · Answer

This isn&#x27;t a bad idea but you better do some more number crunching.  Since 2008, 28.1% of all 3 game series end in a sweep.  15.4% of 4 game series end in a sweep.  Let&#x27;s just take a look at 3 game series real quick:Of 3 game sweeps...65% of the time the home team does the sweeping.  Just to keep things simple, in this scenario the home team would almost invariably be the favorite.  What this tells you that if the home team wins the first game...their chances of sweeping the series jumps up, not down.  You&#x27;re probably looking at a 40% chance of getting swept in most of these scenarios...maybe higher.  Using the unit structure you propose, this system will lose unless you apply a filter of some kind.  On top of that, you could easily have a team be a dog in the first game and be a fav in the second two games.  Explore your idea a little further and you may find something, but something this simple probably won&#x27;t work in the long run.Leprechaun

Leprechaun · Answer

Just looked this up real quick for you. This season, teams facing a sweep in a 3 game series:

Home: 34-33
Road: 54-48

You'd be losing a lot of C games there...not to mention the 169 B games you'd lose getting to these games. That doesn't even count the 4 game series.

Leprechaun

smitler · Answer

I have been playing just the third or fourth game for "sweep prevention", straight/no chase, dogs at +1.5 and it has been very successful. It was 5-0 yesterday and around 23-8 since June 24.
Lines aren't that bad either since you are usually betting on the shitty teams or a good team on the road. The exception being NYY recently.

2 game chase anti sweep

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