All Forums | Systems & Strategies

2013 NFL Betting System #1

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 9483
Posts: 24
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #1
I've got a couple systems that I'm going to track over the season. This is the first one that I will be using. 

Visitors Score

First off, I remove the best and worst scoring performances on the road. I then do the same thing for home games. I average the road performance with total performance to get a 'PF' score. I then calculate the standard deviation for all 32 NFL teams to determine how many standard deviations a team's performance was above or below the NFL average. 

To determine the visitor's score, I use the following formula:

PF + (# of SD above/below the NFL average for home team's defense x # of points for 1 SD)

For example, Baltimore has a 'PF' score of 20.9. Denver's defense has a 'PA' score of 17.1, which is 1.23 SD below the average. The value of 1 SD was 4 pts last year.

Thus, 

Baltimore's predicted score = 20.9 + (-1.23 * 4) = 16

I then do the reverse for the home team. 

After crunching all the numbers, I compare my spread to the line. Whatever team is undervalued, I will side with them. The whole teams I am omitting, will be Kansas City & Buffalo (new coach, new QB) and Philadelphia (new system that is largely unknown). 

Here are my week 1 picks (spread, total according to Bet365) 

Baltimore @ Denver (-8.5, 49.5)       Denver/Under
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-7, 43.5)   Pittsburgh/Under
Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3, 54)        Atlanta/Over
Tampa Bay @ NYJ (+1, 41)             Tampa Bay/Over
Seattle @ Carolina (+3, 45)              Seattle/Under
Cincinnati @ Chicago (-3.5, 45)        Cincinnati/Under
Miami @ Cleveland (+1.5, 39.5)       Cleveland/Under
Minnesota @ Detroit (-3.5, 47)          Minnesota/Over
Oakland @ Indianapolis (-7, 48.5)     Indianapolis/Under
Green Bay @ SF 49ers (-4, 50)        SF/Under
Arizona @ STL (-6, 40)                    Arizona/Under
NYG @ Dallas (-2.5, 49)                  NYG/Over
Houston @ San Diego (+3, 46)         Houston/Under

Cheers




 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 424
Posted: #2
Canuck:

I wish you well with your system.  Looks promising, however have you done any back testing on this.  

Since the season hasn't begun yet you still have some time to do so, and then can decide if this is worth pursuing or doesn't pan out. Would hate to see you lose money on this when a little back testing might confirm or dispute your theory.

Either way, best of luck to you!  
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #3
No, I've done a ton of data collection over the past few months (I'm exhausted by it and I'm actually dreaming of numbers at night) and have taken a 'reflective' approach. Now, I'm testing it to see if it works for forecasting. Unfortunately, I don't have the time (between work and a young family) to back test the system. I actually don't plan on spending any more than pocket money on it this year and am using it primarily for evaluation purposes. 

Cheers
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 126
Posted: #4
I'd also be careful with Cleveland...new HC, new OC, new DC, switching from 4-3 to 3-4, new kicker, just to name a few...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2013
Posts: 669
Posted: #5
I like your picks and the system.  GL.  I have a feeling you will come out of Week 1 in the green.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 1150
Posted: #6
Although some of your picks didn't come through - I followed selectively on multi-team teases - made some coin.

Hope you keep posting.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #7
Week 1 Results

ATS = 5-6-1
O/U = 5-7-1

Will post week #2 picks ... 

In the event that I forgot, I'm posting Thursday's pick. 

My numbers have NE at -14 (current line at Bodog -13) and a total of 48.5 (current line at Bodog -43.5). Once again, I'm not betting using this system. Even if I was, my numbers and the spread would be too close to bet. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 1150
Posted: #8
So canuck - which systems are you betting?


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

So canuck - which systems are you betting?



I'm actually playing a "teaser system". It involves avoiding certain numbers and selecting games between certain ranges. As long as I continue to do well in it, I'll use it for this year. If any of other systems do well, I might implement them next year. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 326
Posted: #10
So how does your teaser system work?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 1150
Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by canuck10:


I'm actually playing a "teaser system". It involves avoiding certain numbers and selecting games between certain ranges. As long as I continue to do well in it, I'll use it for this year. If any of other systems do well, I might implement them next year. 

Canuck - I love teasers - any way you can post your teaser picks?  I would love to know how your teaser system worked - but if you don't want to share it - I understand, but can you at least post the picks
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2013
Posts: 1447
Posted: #12
That's all I'm doing too, pretty much.  I made a spreadsheet that has the winning percentages of tease spreads, separated home and away, from the last 10 years.  I got curious when I've read that teasing across 3s, 6s, 7s etc. did this percentage.  I just did it myself.  One of the best plays is taking a road favorite at -6, teasing to 0.

Check it out:


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ainr1eDtdk5ZdE1JZlQtV2ZVeWp6cFZLMW5VWV96RVE&usp=sharing

Of course, we've got to match the correct teases.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #13
Rest of week 2 picks:

CLE @ BAL (-7, 44) BAL, O

TEN @ HOU (-10, 43) HOU, O

MIA @ IND (-3, 42.5) IND, U

STL @ ATL (-6, 47.5) STL, U

MIN @ CHI (-6, 42)  CHI, O

NO @ TB (+3.5, 47) TB, O

JAK @ OAK (-6, 39) JAK, O

DEN @ NYG (-4.5, 55) NYG, O

SF @ SEA (-3, 44.5) SEA, U

PIT @ CIN (-7, 41) PIT, O


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #14
For teasers, I back-tracked to 2005 and determined the record for home favorites & underdogs, along with away favorites and underdogs. Once I determined which ones did the best with a 13-pt, 10-pt, 7pt, 6.5pt, and 6pt tease, I looked at specific spread numbers. Obviously staying off certain numbers is helpful (as "ties" often result in a lost wager), but there are certain spreads that do significantly well. The problem is the frequency of occurrence.

Just as an example, away teams have gone 30-2 with a 13-pt teaser and home teams have gone 28-4. If you bet $1 on every possible combination of a 4-team tease, you would have won $17,994.50 in Week 2 and $3,441.50 in week 1. However, back-testing the system wasn't as promising so I'd advise caution. The math is below:


Number of possible combinations: 32!/(4!28!)

= 32 x 31 x 30 x 29 / 4 x 3 x 2 

= 863 040 / 24

= 35 960


Note: Don't know how it would be possible to place this many bets unless there is a built-in program that the website uses to do it.

30/32 x 29/31 x 28/30 x 27/29 = 30 x 29 x 28 x 27 / 32 x 31 x 30 x 29

      = 28 x 27 / 32 x 31

= 756 / 992

= 76.209677%

0.76209677 x 35 960 x 1 = $27, 405 (winning tickets)

(1-0.76209677) x 35 960 x 1.1 = $9, 410.50 (losing tickets)

Week 2 Profit = $17, 994.50

28/32 x 27/31 x 26/30 x 25/29 = 28 x 27 x 26 x 25 / 32 x 31 x 30 x 29

= 491 400 / 863 040

= 0.56938265

0.56938265 x 35 960 x 1 = $20, 475.00

(1-0.56938265) x 1.1 = $17, 033.50 

Week 1 Profit = $3, 441.50 


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #15
Week 2 Results
ATS: 4-8
O/U: 5-7

YTD
ATS: 9-14-1
O/U: 10-14-1

Week 3 Picks (added a HF advantage factor dependent on team and most recent history of performance at home):

BAL @ HOU (+3, 45),  BAL, O
NYG @ CAR (+1, 47) CAR, U
DET @ WAS (PK, 49) WAS, U
SD @ TEN (-3, 44) SD, O
TB @ NE (-7, 44) NE, O
GB @ CIN (+3, 49.5) CIN, U
STL @ DAL (-4, 47.5) STL, O
CLE @ MIN (-7, 41) MIN, U
ATL @ MIA (-3, 44.5) ATL, U
IND @ SF (-10, 46.5) SF, U
JAK @ SEA (-19, 41) SEA, O
CHI @ PIT (+3, 40.5)  CHI, U
OAK @ DEN (-15.5, 49.5)  DEN, - 

















 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #16
Week 3 Results:

ATS  7-5-1 
O/U  4-8 

YTD
ATS: 16-19-2
O/O:  14-22-1

Thursday Night

SF @ STL (+3, 42)  Pick: STL, O
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2013
Posts: 1447
Posted: #17
Post #14


I only did the teaser spread for 6pts.  Gonna have to do it for the other 4 spreads too.  I've been doing well with these percentages, I think I missed on one....San Fran last week.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #18
Rest of week 4 picks ...

PIT v. MIN (+3, 42) PIT, - 

CIN v. CLE (+4, 43) CIN, U

IND v. JAK (+9, 42.5) IND, U

SEA v. HOU (+3, 42) SEA, - 

CHI v. TB (-3, 48) CHI, O

DAL v. SD (+2, 47) DAL, U

WAS v. OAK (+3.5, 44) WAS, O

NE v. ATL (-1.5, 49.5) NE, U

MIA v. NO (-7, 48) NO, U


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #19
... oh yeah, and I messed up Thursday's pick by including a HF advantage when one was already included in the formula (thus, I gave too many points to STL and would have selected SF)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #20
Week 4 Results

ATS: 6-4
YTD: 24-23-2

O/U: 6-4
YTD: 21-26-1

Week 5 Picks ...

NO @ CHI (+1, 50) CHI, U

NE @ CIN (-1, ) NE, U

DET @ GB (-7, 54) GB, U

SEA @ IND (+3, 44) SEA, U 

BAL @ MIA (-3, 43) BAL, U

PHI @ NYG (-3, 53.5) NYG, O

JAK @ STL (-12, 41) JAK, O

DEN @ DAL (+9, 57) DAL, O

HOU @ SF (-7, 42) HOU, O

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #21
Week 5 Results

ATS: 3-6
YTD: 27-29-2

O/U: 6-3
YTD: 27-29-1

Week 6 - Thursday Night Game

NY Giants @ Chicago (-8) Pick: NYG

My "created" line has it at -8.5, so pretty close. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #22
Rest of week 6 picks ...

GB @ BAL (+3, 47.5) Pick: GB, Over

STL @ HOU (-9) Pick: STL, Over

CAR @ MIN (-3) Pick: CAR, Over

PIT @ NYJ (-1) Pick: PIT, Under

JAK @ DEN (-27) Pick: DEN, Over

TEN @ SEA (-14) Pick: SEA, Under

NO @ NE (-2.5) Pick: NE, Under

WAS @ DAL (-6) Pick: WAS, Over

IND @ SD (+1) Pick: IND, Under

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #23
Rest of picks ...

NE @ NYJ (+4, 44) Pick: NE, O

SD @ JAK (+9, 45.5) Pick: JAK, O

CIN @ DET (-3, 47) Pick: CIN, O

BUF @ MIA (-9, 43) Pick: BUF, U

CHI @ WAS (-1, 50) Pick: CHI, U

DAL @ PHI (-3, 55) Pick: DAL, O

STL @ CAR (-6, 42.5) Pick: STL,  U

TB @ ATL (-9, 43) Pick: TB, U

SF @ TEN (+4.5, 40) Pick: SF

HOU @ KC (-7, 39.5) Pick: HOU, U

CLE @ GB (-10, 46 ) Pick: CLE, U

BAL @ PIT (-1, 41) Pick: BAL, U

DEN @ IND (+7, 57) Pick: DEN, U

MIN @ NYG (-3.5, 47) Pick: MIN

 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 123
Posted: #24
Week 7 ATS: 3-11
YTD: 35-45-2

Week 7 O/U: 6-7
YTD: 38-40-1

Week 8 Picks

CAR @ TB +6 Pick: CAR, N/A

DAL @ DET (-3, 51) Pick: DAL, O

SF @ JAK (+16, 40.5) Pick: SF, U

CLE @ KC (-7.5, 39.5) Pick: KC, U

MIA @ NE (-6.5, 45.5) Pick: NE, U

BUF @ NO (-11, 48) Pick: NO, O

NYG @ PHI (-5, 51) Pick: PHI, U

NYJ @ CIN (-6, 41.5) Pick: CIN, U

PIT @ OAK (+2, 40.5) Pick: PIT, U

ATL @ ARI (-2.5, 45.5) Pick: ATL, O

WAS @ DEN (-11.5, 58) Pick: DEN, O

GB @ MIN (+8, 47.5) Pick: MIN, O

SEA @ STL (+11, 42.5) Pick: SEA, U

All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.