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Finally system for the 2013-14 season. I will be using RedZone Differential to create a spread and siding with the team that is undervalued. Unlike the last system, I will only be using 2012 numbers and not making any changes due to roster moves or coaching changes (I will just exclude games that involve a major coaching or QB change).
Offensive RZ Efficiency = # of appearances x # of RZ TDs (per game); Defensive RZ Efficiency is calculated in a similar manner
I then factor in the strength of the opponent using standard deviations and averages. For example, Baltimore might be above average in Defensive RZ Efficiency, but Denver is several standard deviations above average in Offensive RZ Efficiency. Therefore, Baltimore's D-RZ efficiency will be much higher (due to playing against a team that is significantly above average on offense) and Denver's O-RZ efficiency will be slightly lower (due to playing against a team that is a little above average on defense) .To find RZ differential, I then use the following formula:
RZ Differential = O RZ Efficiency - D RZ Efficiency
I then create a spread using linear regression and slope & y-intercept values.
Here are my week 1 picks:
Baltimore @ Denver -8
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh -7
Atlanta @ New Orleans -3
Tampa Bay @ NY Jets +2.5
Seattle @ Carolina +3
Cincinnati @ Chicago -3.5
Miami @ Cleveland +1.5
Minnesota @ Detroit -3.5
Green Bay @ San Francisco -4
NY Giants @ Dallas -2.5
Houston @ San Diego +3
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