Breaking out this new system I've been working on. Feel free to follow along with the plays or just track with me, but it should profit with just a 50% win rate, and the lab clears after a winning night. The rules are as follows:
#1 - There are 3 plays, each to win a single unit. So, for example, if the spread on one game is -120, the risk for that one game is $12 to win $10 (for a $10 unit)
#2 - If the results are 2-1 or 3-0, bank the profit and the next day's games will all risk to win a single unit again.
#3 - If the results are 1-2 or 0-3, calculate the day's loss, divide by 3, and add that to the next day's single unit risk.
EXAMPLE: If you have 3 plays (1.2 units each) and the plays go 1-2, and you are down 1.2 units for the night. Divide the 1.2 loss for the night by 3 and add that to a unit for the next plays. Next day, risk to win 1.4 units on each play. Repeat until the plays go 2-1 or 3-0.
Tonight's plays:
LAD -107 Risk 1.07 to win 1
OAK -150 Risk 1.50 to win 1
CLE -113 Risk 1.13 to win 1
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Breaking out this new system I've been working on. Feel free to follow along with the plays or just track with me, but it should profit with just a 50% win rate, and the lab clears after a winning night. The rules are as follows:
#1 - There are 3 plays, each to win a single unit. So, for example, if the spread on one game is -120, the risk for that one game is $12 to win $10 (for a $10 unit)
#2 - If the results are 2-1 or 3-0, bank the profit and the next day's games will all risk to win a single unit again.
#3 - If the results are 1-2 or 0-3, calculate the day's loss, divide by 3, and add that to the next day's single unit risk.
EXAMPLE: If you have 3 plays (1.2 units each) and the plays go 1-2, and you are down 1.2 units for the night. Divide the 1.2 loss for the night by 3 and add that to a unit for the next plays. Next day, risk to win 1.4 units on each play. Repeat until the plays go 2-1 or 3-0.
Your math is wrong. If you have 3 plays at -110 each and go 0-3, you are down $33, 3.3 units (assuming $10 unit). So according to your system, you would bet to win 2.1 units for each of the 3 bets the next day.
Given the above lets say the 3 plays the next day are all at +105 odds, you'd wager 2 units each to win 2.1. If you went 2-1, you would profit for the day 2.2 units. You were down 3.3 units coming in so even going 2-1 leaves you at down 1.1 units. So you don't clear after just 1 winning night as stated.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Your math is wrong. If you have 3 plays at -110 each and go 0-3, you are down $33, 3.3 units (assuming $10 unit). So according to your system, you would bet to win 2.1 units for each of the 3 bets the next day.
Given the above lets say the 3 plays the next day are all at +105 odds, you'd wager 2 units each to win 2.1. If you went 2-1, you would profit for the day 2.2 units. You were down 3.3 units coming in so even going 2-1 leaves you at down 1.1 units. So you don't clear after just 1 winning night as stated.
Appreciate the notes and feedback. You are absolutely right. I thought I explained it the same way, but apologies for any confusion. The scenario you laid out will likely occur, and when it does, the system simply takes the loss. The overall goal is for the successful rounds absorb the unsuccessful rounds.
In regards to how the picks are made, there is no formula there - the system is more about the framework than the actual picks.
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Hi Danrules24,
Appreciate the notes and feedback. You are absolutely right. I thought I explained it the same way, but apologies for any confusion. The scenario you laid out will likely occur, and when it does, the system simply takes the loss. The overall goal is for the successful rounds absorb the unsuccessful rounds.
In regards to how the picks are made, there is no formula there - the system is more about the framework than the actual picks.
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