waiting for the MLB to start, I started yesterday to put one of my systems also into a NBA. In MLB it was quite successful for several year, yet I made a break for 2-3 years. Got a child, had no time to follow my strategies properly, lost dumb money, decided to give it some time. So, now I'm back an will try to revive my systems, that need the least effort to maintain :)
It's a classic 3-game chase, based on my Powerrankings and backtesting was quite promising. Now, I'm going for a
first live-test.
MLB is a little bit stronger regarding strike-rate (avoiding a sweep is quite a motivation it seems), but NBA is
ATS and Total, so odds help to reduce the effect of lost series.
I'll use a bank of 1,000 units, aiming to win one unit per game played.
I will post my bets and my results here, if you are interested in discussion, please feel free to join.
Powerrankings are based on several absolute and relative statistics (e.g. total Def-Rebounds makes no sense to me -
I like the Def Reb / Opp Off Reb-Ratio much more).
With best regards,
Thasian
First games were yesterday:
Lakers Under WON
Fade Knicks WON
Fade Suns LOST -1.14U -> B-Bet on 03/16/2019
Rockets Over LOST -1.01 -> B-Bet on 03/17/2019
Current result of Series finished:
A: 2
B: 0
C: 0
Lost: 0
+2U
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hi,
waiting for the MLB to start, I started yesterday to put one of my systems also into a NBA. In MLB it was quite successful for several year, yet I made a break for 2-3 years. Got a child, had no time to follow my strategies properly, lost dumb money, decided to give it some time. So, now I'm back an will try to revive my systems, that need the least effort to maintain :)
It's a classic 3-game chase, based on my Powerrankings and backtesting was quite promising. Now, I'm going for a
first live-test.
MLB is a little bit stronger regarding strike-rate (avoiding a sweep is quite a motivation it seems), but NBA is
ATS and Total, so odds help to reduce the effect of lost series.
I'll use a bank of 1,000 units, aiming to win one unit per game played.
I will post my bets and my results here, if you are interested in discussion, please feel free to join.
Powerrankings are based on several absolute and relative statistics (e.g. total Def-Rebounds makes no sense to me -
I like the Def Reb / Opp Off Reb-Ratio much more).
For the early game today: Fade Hawks: Celtics -10.0: 0.99 to win 1.00 I will also later post the related bets to: Back Warriors Warriors Over Fade Cavaliers B-Bet: Fade Suns
All bets for today:
B-Bets: Fade-Suns: Pelicans -2.5: 3.27 to win 3.14
A-Bets: Fade Hawks: Celtics -10.0: 0.99 to win 1.00 Back Warriors: Warriors +1.0: 1.00 to win 1.00 Warriors Over: Warriors @Thunder O230.0: 1.04 to win 1.00 Fade Cavs: Mavericks -6.5: 1.07 to win 1.00
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Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
For the early game today: Fade Hawks: Celtics -10.0: 0.99 to win 1.00 I will also later post the related bets to: Back Warriors Warriors Over Fade Cavaliers B-Bet: Fade Suns
All bets for today:
B-Bets: Fade-Suns: Pelicans -2.5: 3.27 to win 3.14
A-Bets: Fade Hawks: Celtics -10.0: 0.99 to win 1.00 Back Warriors: Warriors +1.0: 1.00 to win 1.00 Warriors Over: Warriors @Thunder O230.0: 1.04 to win 1.00 Fade Cavs: Mavericks -6.5: 1.07 to win 1.00
B-Bets: Rockets Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 3.13 to win 3.01 Fade Hawks: Hawks @Magic: Magic -8.0: 3.08 to win 2.99
A-Bets: Back Raptors: Raptors +1.0 @Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00 Twolves Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 1.05 to win 1.00
So, Rockets go to C.. very early, but as stated in the first post: Even some losers are expected. So lets see if they go back to high-scoring against the Hawks tomorrow.
Raptors.. well.. losing Q4 by 9 points, I had some hope after they rebounded in Q3 and took the lead..
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Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
B-Bets: Rockets Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 3.13 to win 3.01 Fade Hawks: Hawks @Magic: Magic -8.0: 3.08 to win 2.99
A-Bets: Back Raptors: Raptors +1.0 @Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00 Twolves Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 1.05 to win 1.00
So, Rockets go to C.. very early, but as stated in the first post: Even some losers are expected. So lets see if they go back to high-scoring against the Hawks tomorrow.
Raptors.. well.. losing Q4 by 9 points, I had some hope after they rebounded in Q3 and took the lead..
B-Bets: Fade Cavs: Pistons -5.0: 4.36 to win 3.07 -> C-Bet vs Bucks on March, 20th Warriors Over: Warriors @Spurs: O226.0: 2.81 to win 3.04 -> C-Bet @Twolves today Back Raptors: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 3.38 to win 3.07
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 1.10 to win 1.00 Back Jazz: Jazz -5.0 v Wizards: 1.04 to win 1.00
The Cav'S win surprised me. Let's see if they can keep it up against the Buck. Under of Warriors/Spurs was okay - I think against the Twolves we will a LOT of scoring. I adjusted my PRs a little bit, an had Warriors/Spurs not as the Over-pick it was before, but still. The chase should be okay.
Completed series: A: 5 B: 2 C: 1
+12.0
Running Series: A: - (but some upcoming, I'll see to post them about 4:30 to 5pm latest..) B: Twolves Over (matches with C-Bet on Warriors Over) C: Rockets Over, Warriors Over, Fade Cavs
0
Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
March 18th, 2019
C-Bets: Fade Suns: Bulls +1.5: 7.13 to win 7.41
B-Bets: Fade Cavs: Pistons -5.0: 4.36 to win 3.07 -> C-Bet vs Bucks on March, 20th Warriors Over: Warriors @Spurs: O226.0: 2.81 to win 3.04 -> C-Bet @Twolves today Back Raptors: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 3.38 to win 3.07
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 1.10 to win 1.00 Back Jazz: Jazz -5.0 v Wizards: 1.04 to win 1.00
The Cav'S win surprised me. Let's see if they can keep it up against the Buck. Under of Warriors/Spurs was okay - I think against the Twolves we will a LOT of scoring. I adjusted my PRs a little bit, an had Warriors/Spurs not as the Over-pick it was before, but still. The chase should be okay.
Completed series: A: 5 B: 2 C: 1
+12.0
Running Series: A: - (but some upcoming, I'll see to post them about 4:30 to 5pm latest..) B: Twolves Over (matches with C-Bet on Warriors Over) C: Rockets Over, Warriors Over, Fade Cavs
B-Bets: Twolves Over: Warriors @Twolves: O230.0: 3.17 to win 3.05 -> C-Bet on March 21th, @Hornets
A-Bets: Back Bucks: Bucks -11.0 v Lakers: 1.00 to win 1.00 Fade Hawks: Rockets -8.0 @Hawks: 0.91 to win 1.00
Two series lost. Well - in MLB, I already avoided Totals, but though NBA may be more constant.. so - no more Totals after the current series are finished. Anyway: Still on track, losses happen, will continue :)
B-Bets: Twolves Over: Warriors @Twolves: O230.0: 3.17 to win 3.05 -> C-Bet on March 21th, @Hornets
A-Bets: Back Bucks: Bucks -11.0 v Lakers: 1.00 to win 1.00 Fade Hawks: Rockets -8.0 @Hawks: 0.91 to win 1.00
Two series lost. Well - in MLB, I already avoided Totals, but though NBA may be more constant.. so - no more Totals after the current series are finished. Anyway: Still on track, losses happen, will continue :)
C-Bets: Fade Cavs: Bucks -9.5 @Cavaliers: 8.11 to win 8.43
B-Bets: -
A-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Fade Knicks: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors +5.5 @Thunder: 1.13 to win 1.00 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -10.0 v Mavericks: 0.98 to win 1.00
... and no Wizards Over ;)
0
March, 20th
C-Bets: Fade Cavs: Bucks -9.5 @Cavaliers: 8.11 to win 8.43
B-Bets: -
A-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Fade Knicks: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors +5.5 @Thunder: 1.13 to win 1.00 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -10.0 v Mavericks: 0.98 to win 1.00
A-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Fade Knicks: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors +5.5 @Thunder: 1.13 to win 1.00 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -10.0 v Mavericks: 0.98 to win 1.00
Portland losing by 10 in the last quarter was a little annoying. Another C-Bet lost and, of course, the Wizards went way over.
A-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Fade Knicks: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors +5.5 @Thunder: 1.13 to win 1.00 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -10.0 v Mavericks: 0.98 to win 1.00
Portland losing by 10 in the last quarter was a little annoying. Another C-Bet lost and, of course, the Wizards went way over.
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Nuggets -11.0 v Knicks: 1.06 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors -2.0 v Thunder: 1.02 to win 1.00 Fade Cavs: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Clippers: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -7.5 v Heat: 0.98 to win 1.00
0
March, 22th
C-Bets: -
B-Bets: -
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Nuggets -11.0 v Knicks: 1.06 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors -2.0 v Thunder: 1.02 to win 1.00 Fade Cavs: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Clippers: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -7.5 v Heat: 0.98 to win 1.00
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Nuggets -11.0 v Knicks: 1.06 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors -2.0 v Thunder: 1.02 to win 1.00 Fade Cavs: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Clippers: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -7.5 v Heat: 0.98 to win 1.00
Record:
A: 13 B: 2 C: 1 Lost: 4 -28.66
0
Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
March, 22th
C-Bets: -
B-Bets: -
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Nuggets -11.0 v Knicks: 1.06 to win 1.00 Back Raptors: Raptors -2.0 v Thunder: 1.02 to win 1.00 Fade Cavs: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Clippers: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -7.5 v Heat: 0.98 to win 1.00
B-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 2.91 to win 3.03 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 3.19 to win 2.98 Fade Hawks: Seventysixers -8.0 @Hawks: 2.71 to win 3.03
A-Bets: Fade Hornets: Celtics -4.0 @Hornets: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Bulls: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00 Back Warriors: Warriors -13.5 v Mavericks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Fade Suns: Kings -11.0 v Suns: 0.96 to win 1.00
0
March, 23th
C-Bets: -
B-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 2.91 to win 3.03 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 3.19 to win 2.98 Fade Hawks: Seventysixers -8.0 @Hawks: 2.71 to win 3.03
A-Bets: Fade Hornets: Celtics -4.0 @Hornets: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Bulls: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00 Back Warriors: Warriors -13.5 v Mavericks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Fade Suns: Kings -11.0 v Suns: 0.96 to win 1.00
B-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 2.91 to win 3.03 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 3.19 to win 2.98 - PUSH Fade Hawks: Seventysixers -8.0 @Hawks: 2.71 to win 3.03
A-Bets: Fade Hornets: Celtics -4.0 @Hornets: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Bulls: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00 - PUSH Back Warriors: Warriors -13.5 v Mavericks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Fade Suns: Kings -11.0 v Suns: 0.96 to win 1.00
0
Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
March, 23th
C-Bets: -
B-Bets: Back Jazz: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 2.91 to win 3.03 Back Tblazers: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 3.19 to win 2.98 - PUSH Fade Hawks: Seventysixers -8.0 @Hawks: 2.71 to win 3.03
A-Bets: Fade Hornets: Celtics -4.0 @Hornets: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Bulls: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 0.97 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00 - PUSH Back Warriors: Warriors -13.5 v Mavericks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Fade Suns: Kings -11.0 v Suns: 0.96 to win 1.00
B-Bets: Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04 Back Raptors: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Fade Cavs: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 3.10 to win 3.04 Fade Hornets: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Back Warriors: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 3.10 to win 3.04
A-Bets:
Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 1.01 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 1.03 to win 1.00
0
March 24th, complete
No C-Bets
B-Bets: Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04 Back Raptors: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Fade Cavs: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 3.10 to win 3.04 Fade Hornets: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Back Warriors: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 3.10 to win 3.04
A-Bets:
Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 1.01 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 1.03 to win 1.00
B-Bets: Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04 Back Raptors: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Fade Cavs: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 3.10 to win 3.04 Fade Hornets: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Back Warriors: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 3.10 to win 3.04
Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
March 24th, complete No C-Bets B-Bets:Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04Back Raptors: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02Fade Cavs: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 3.10 to win 3.04Fade Hornets: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02Back Warriors: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 3.10 to win 3.04 A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00Back Bucks: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 1.01 to win 1.00Fade Pistons: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 1.03 to win 1.00
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 1.01 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 1.03 to win 1.00
0
Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
March 24th
No C-Bets
B-Bets: Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04 Back Raptors: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Fade Cavs: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 3.10 to win 3.04 Fade Hornets: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02 Back Warriors: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 3.10 to win 3.04
Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:
March 24th, complete No C-Bets B-Bets:Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04Back Raptors: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02Fade Cavs: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 3.10 to win 3.04Fade Hornets: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02Back Warriors: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 3.10 to win 3.04 A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00Back Bucks: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 1.01 to win 1.00Fade Pistons: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 1.03 to win 1.00
A-Bets: Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00 Back Bucks: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 1.01 to win 1.00 Fade Pistons: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 1.03 to win 1.00
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