Posted:
#1
I have used this model for several years, it has been fairly effective. I want to see what opinions that others have about this model. Are there other factors that you know are important? Each of these factors is rated a % of an overall formula where all the %s add up to 100%. The rating % goes down as the list number goes up. In other words WHIP is the most important factor, ERA is the least important factor.
One thing I want to say first. The person that taught me how to cap this way did not believe in worrying about the opposing hitters except in the matchup between this game's starting pitcher. I asked him about that and he said the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is .2 hits per game.
1. WHIP
2. Starter's last outing - this is used as a knockout, if the starter got bombed his last game, don't play him at all.
3. HR per innings pitched (over 9 innings)
4. K vs BB over 9 innings. You just do K/BB over 9 innings.
5. Atem pitch - an atem pitch is a pitch that gets hit hard, but hit right at someone. In other words this would have been a double or a triple if it was not hit right at someone I think the idea here is that this pitcher got very lucky on this pitch.
6. Relievers - Relief staff statistics over the last few weeks and against the opposing team. Narrowed down to the relievers who can actually pitch in this game.
7. Umpire - Some umpires favor the UNDER, some favor the OVER. We want umpires that greatly favor the UNDER. This is a good stat for us if the umpire greatly favors the UNDER, it is a bad stat for us if the umpire greatly favors the OVER.
8. Stadium - some stadiums are domes and don't really impact a team. Other stadiums are open and the weather has a huge impact. Or, the dimensions to the fence really matter for certain hitters. Example, player A hits lots of home runs down the first base line in this park with the very short distance to the fence down the first base line, but he does not usually hit home runs down the first base line in more normal parks.
9. Weather - is it cold? Does cold matter in this park? Is it extremely hot and humid? Is the wind blowing down the short fence in right field?
10. Hitting lineup vs starting pitcher - how does this starter fare vs these hitters. A few years ago I was betting the Yankees, I forget the pitcher, anyway one of my friends said "that pitcher gets mauled by the hitters in the other team". The Yankees got killed that game.
11. IP per start - will the starter go 7 innings? 5 innings? 9 innings? We want starters who will go 7 innings. 6.3 innings and above is good. 6.0 is okay. Below 6 is bad.
12. ERA - this is a very small factor.
Is there anything else that you feel is important?
One thing I want to say first. The person that taught me how to cap this way did not believe in worrying about the opposing hitters except in the matchup between this game's starting pitcher. I asked him about that and he said the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter is .2 hits per game.
1. WHIP
2. Starter's last outing - this is used as a knockout, if the starter got bombed his last game, don't play him at all.
3. HR per innings pitched (over 9 innings)
4. K vs BB over 9 innings. You just do K/BB over 9 innings.
5. Atem pitch - an atem pitch is a pitch that gets hit hard, but hit right at someone. In other words this would have been a double or a triple if it was not hit right at someone I think the idea here is that this pitcher got very lucky on this pitch.
6. Relievers - Relief staff statistics over the last few weeks and against the opposing team. Narrowed down to the relievers who can actually pitch in this game.
7. Umpire - Some umpires favor the UNDER, some favor the OVER. We want umpires that greatly favor the UNDER. This is a good stat for us if the umpire greatly favors the UNDER, it is a bad stat for us if the umpire greatly favors the OVER.
8. Stadium - some stadiums are domes and don't really impact a team. Other stadiums are open and the weather has a huge impact. Or, the dimensions to the fence really matter for certain hitters. Example, player A hits lots of home runs down the first base line in this park with the very short distance to the fence down the first base line, but he does not usually hit home runs down the first base line in more normal parks.
9. Weather - is it cold? Does cold matter in this park? Is it extremely hot and humid? Is the wind blowing down the short fence in right field?
10. Hitting lineup vs starting pitcher - how does this starter fare vs these hitters. A few years ago I was betting the Yankees, I forget the pitcher, anyway one of my friends said "that pitcher gets mauled by the hitters in the other team". The Yankees got killed that game.
11. IP per start - will the starter go 7 innings? 5 innings? 9 innings? We want starters who will go 7 innings. 6.3 innings and above is good. 6.0 is okay. Below 6 is bad.
12. ERA - this is a very small factor.
Is there anything else that you feel is important?
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