I have no results at this moment, but it should work fine: Every day or night pick the game with the lowest defensive numbers on the board and play under. That means you should sum the defensive averages for both teams (how many points do they allow per game). For instance, tonight: The game with the lowest defensive numbers is Cleveland at Portland. Cleveland defense allows an avg. of 93.8 points / game and Portland defense allows 93.8 points / game. That means 187.6 points per game for both defenses. You can find the numbers on Covers NBA scoreboard under "Matchup". For those who like chasing you can chase the under by this criteria increasing stakes. But stick to one game per day.
Good Luck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I have no results at this moment, but it should work fine: Every day or night pick the game with the lowest defensive numbers on the board and play under. That means you should sum the defensive averages for both teams (how many points do they allow per game). For instance, tonight: The game with the lowest defensive numbers is Cleveland at Portland. Cleveland defense allows an avg. of 93.8 points / game and Portland defense allows 93.8 points / game. That means 187.6 points per game for both defenses. You can find the numbers on Covers NBA scoreboard under "Matchup". For those who like chasing you can chase the under by this criteria increasing stakes. But stick to one game per day.
I don't think you should give up on this...however, I think you might want to re-evaluate your approach. The books know these statistics you are talking about and set the O/U accordingly. That being said, why not play the OVER in these situations?
I think to win at sports betting you have to think in a contrarian way... If it was easy as beating the books by using the statistics the way they do and the way they use it to manipulate the public, then we would all be rich. The situations you are pointing out scream UNDER, usually means the book knows this and thus the play would be OVER.
What do you think?
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calin,
I don't think you should give up on this...however, I think you might want to re-evaluate your approach. The books know these statistics you are talking about and set the O/U accordingly. That being said, why not play the OVER in these situations?
I think to win at sports betting you have to think in a contrarian way... If it was easy as beating the books by using the statistics the way they do and the way they use it to manipulate the public, then we would all be rich. The situations you are pointing out scream UNDER, usually means the book knows this and thus the play would be OVER.
I don't think you should give up on this...however, I think you might want to re-evaluate your approach. The books know these statistics you are talking about and set the O/U accordingly. That being said, why not play the OVER in these situations?
I think to win at sports betting you have to think in a contrarian way... If it was easy as beating the books by using the statistics the way they do and the way they use it to manipulate the public, then we would all be rich. The situations you are pointing out scream UNDER, usually means the book knows this and thus the play would be OVER.
What do you think?
What you're saying makes a lot of sense... but if the sum of the defensive averages is under the posted total i wouldn't play over.
As a matter of fact, i use a similar strategy for soccer and hockey totals and it works pretty good, but scoring in hockey and soccer is a poisson process, completely different. For instance today i was 2-0 (one soccer under and one hockey under). For soccer i pick situations where the defensive average (sum) is at most 2 goals / game wich means very strong defensives. For hockey i pick situations where the sum of defenses is at most 5 goals / game. The best situations are those when top teams meet. They both have veryy strong strong defenses but also very strong offenses and the bookies come up with value odds for the under. Usually a confrontation between top defenses ends up in an under.
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Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:
calin,
I don't think you should give up on this...however, I think you might want to re-evaluate your approach. The books know these statistics you are talking about and set the O/U accordingly. That being said, why not play the OVER in these situations?
I think to win at sports betting you have to think in a contrarian way... If it was easy as beating the books by using the statistics the way they do and the way they use it to manipulate the public, then we would all be rich. The situations you are pointing out scream UNDER, usually means the book knows this and thus the play would be OVER.
What do you think?
What you're saying makes a lot of sense... but if the sum of the defensive averages is under the posted total i wouldn't play over.
As a matter of fact, i use a similar strategy for soccer and hockey totals and it works pretty good, but scoring in hockey and soccer is a poisson process, completely different. For instance today i was 2-0 (one soccer under and one hockey under). For soccer i pick situations where the defensive average (sum) is at most 2 goals / game wich means very strong defensives. For hockey i pick situations where the sum of defenses is at most 5 goals / game. The best situations are those when top teams meet. They both have veryy strong strong defenses but also very strong offenses and the bookies come up with value odds for the under. Usually a confrontation between top defenses ends up in an under.
I will try to adjust my hockey and soccer under strategy (as described in the post above) to see how it works for basketball. In soccer and hockey the differential is 1 goal, the maximum amount of points that can be scored in one offensive action. They can't score more than 1 point at a time. In basketball the maximum amount of points they can score by an offensive action is 3 points, so i should take 3 points differential when i pick the plays. For instance, in soccer total is listed at 2.5 and i take a bet when the sum of defenses is at most 2 goals, 1 goal under what would be the over. Same for hockey. So, for basketball i would take the under when the sum of defenses is at least 3 points under the posted total. That means i sum the defensive averages for home team (when playing at home) and for road team (when plyaing on the road) and if the result is 3 or more points less than the total posted by the bookie i'll take the under.
I looked at todays matchups (NBA) and the only game that suites this criteria would be Milwaukee @ Phoenix : Buckes allow 95.6 points/game on the road and Suns allow 105.3 points/game at home. The sum is 200.9 points and the total posted is 213. The difference is 12.1 points so i'll take it as un under. There is another interesting game, MIN @ DEN where the sum is 212.5 and the total posted is 215 now. But the line moved 2 points. They opened 217 at Pinnacle and they are now 215. There would be a play at at least 215.5 but with the line movement i don't think it's wise to take the under.
So, one NBA play: MIL@PHO under 213
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I will try to adjust my hockey and soccer under strategy (as described in the post above) to see how it works for basketball. In soccer and hockey the differential is 1 goal, the maximum amount of points that can be scored in one offensive action. They can't score more than 1 point at a time. In basketball the maximum amount of points they can score by an offensive action is 3 points, so i should take 3 points differential when i pick the plays. For instance, in soccer total is listed at 2.5 and i take a bet when the sum of defenses is at most 2 goals, 1 goal under what would be the over. Same for hockey. So, for basketball i would take the under when the sum of defenses is at least 3 points under the posted total. That means i sum the defensive averages for home team (when playing at home) and for road team (when plyaing on the road) and if the result is 3 or more points less than the total posted by the bookie i'll take the under.
I looked at todays matchups (NBA) and the only game that suites this criteria would be Milwaukee @ Phoenix : Buckes allow 95.6 points/game on the road and Suns allow 105.3 points/game at home. The sum is 200.9 points and the total posted is 213. The difference is 12.1 points so i'll take it as un under. There is another interesting game, MIN @ DEN where the sum is 212.5 and the total posted is 215 now. But the line moved 2 points. They opened 217 at Pinnacle and they are now 215. There would be a play at at least 215.5 but with the line movement i don't think it's wise to take the under.
NBA mil-pho under 213 NCAAB can-siena under 141 eill-murst under 129.5 oklst-okl under 147 loute-boist under 148.5 sjst-frsno under 140 nmexs-idaho under 150
NBA 1-0 NCAAB 3-3
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Yesterday results:
NBA mil-pho under 213 NCAAB can-siena under 141 eill-murst under 129.5 oklst-okl under 147 loute-boist under 148.5 sjst-frsno under 140 nmexs-idaho under 150
you realize points/game is the dumbest way to evaluate totals right?
points per possession and pace are what matter.
take the bobcats, they allow a low pt/game but thats bc they play a very slow style of ball. to use the pt/game "approach" when they play an uptempo team is shortsighted
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you realize points/game is the dumbest way to evaluate totals right?
points per possession and pace are what matter.
take the bobcats, they allow a low pt/game but thats bc they play a very slow style of ball. to use the pt/game "approach" when they play an uptempo team is shortsighted
you realize points/game is the dumbest way to evaluate totals right?
points per possession and pace are what matter.
take the bobcats, they allow a low pt/game but thats bc they play a very slow style of ball. to use the pt/game "approach" when they play an uptempo team is shortsighted
Maybe it's dumb, i don't know, but it works for hockey and soccer where scoring is a completely different process and i thought to try it for basketball. I don't know much about basketball but it looks like the pace is everything when it comes about totals.
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Quote Originally Posted by steveshane67:
you realize points/game is the dumbest way to evaluate totals right?
points per possession and pace are what matter.
take the bobcats, they allow a low pt/game but thats bc they play a very slow style of ball. to use the pt/game "approach" when they play an uptempo team is shortsighted
Maybe it's dumb, i don't know, but it works for hockey and soccer where scoring is a completely different process and i thought to try it for basketball. I don't know much about basketball but it looks like the pace is everything when it comes about totals.
what is interesting is someone takes the time to come up with a system, present it to the board and then get cut to pieces....it would be such an advantage if those giving a very neg input, take the time and give a direction to go to help the system..
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what is interesting is someone takes the time to come up with a system, present it to the board and then get cut to pieces....it would be such an advantage if those giving a very neg input, take the time and give a direction to go to help the system..
I will try to adjust my hockey and soccer under strategy (as described in the post above) to see how it works for basketball. In soccer and hockey the differential is 1 goal, the maximum amount of points that can be scored in one offensive action. They can't score more than 1 point at a time. In basketball the maximum amount of points they can score by an offensive action is 3 points, so i should take 3 points differential when i pick the plays. For instance, in soccer total is listed at 2.5 and i take a bet when the sum of defenses is at most 2 goals, 1 goal under what would be the over. Same for hockey. So, for basketball i would take the under when the sum of defenses is at least 3 points under the posted total. That means i sum the defensive averages for home team (when playing at home) and for road team (when plyaing on the road) and if the result is 3 or more points less than the total posted by the bookie i'll take the under.
I looked at todays matchups (NBA) and the only game that suites this criteria would be Milwaukee @ Phoenix : Buckes allow 95.6 points/game on the road and Suns allow 105.3 points/game at home. The sum is 200.9 points and the total posted is 213. The difference is 12.1 points so i'll take it as un under. There is another interesting game, MIN @ DEN where the sum is 212.5 and the total posted is 215 now. But the line moved 2 points. They opened 217 at Pinnacle and they are now 215. There would be a play at at least 215.5 but with the line movement i don't think it's wise to take the under.
So, one NBA play: MIL@PHO under 213
can you please give an example for the soccer and hockey handicapping, it sounds like a great idea
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Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:
I will try to adjust my hockey and soccer under strategy (as described in the post above) to see how it works for basketball. In soccer and hockey the differential is 1 goal, the maximum amount of points that can be scored in one offensive action. They can't score more than 1 point at a time. In basketball the maximum amount of points they can score by an offensive action is 3 points, so i should take 3 points differential when i pick the plays. For instance, in soccer total is listed at 2.5 and i take a bet when the sum of defenses is at most 2 goals, 1 goal under what would be the over. Same for hockey. So, for basketball i would take the under when the sum of defenses is at least 3 points under the posted total. That means i sum the defensive averages for home team (when playing at home) and for road team (when plyaing on the road) and if the result is 3 or more points less than the total posted by the bookie i'll take the under.
I looked at todays matchups (NBA) and the only game that suites this criteria would be Milwaukee @ Phoenix : Buckes allow 95.6 points/game on the road and Suns allow 105.3 points/game at home. The sum is 200.9 points and the total posted is 213. The difference is 12.1 points so i'll take it as un under. There is another interesting game, MIN @ DEN where the sum is 212.5 and the total posted is 215 now. But the line moved 2 points. They opened 217 at Pinnacle and they are now 215. There would be a play at at least 215.5 but with the line movement i don't think it's wise to take the under.
So, one NBA play: MIL@PHO under 213
can you please give an example for the soccer and hockey handicapping, it sounds like a great idea
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