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betting underdogs +200 or more

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Does anyone have any stats on betting underdogs +200 or more is this a profitable strategy?  I have been doing this for kicks so far on wagerline and am 8-4 +12.78 units so far. 
 
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Posted: #2
Not really. Someone elsewhere even tried it with the NHL but it evened out too. Hmmm... Interesting
 
My opinion don't go for all the marbles but hate on the public. Take any team getting 30% of the public or less on the ML minutes before gametime. I personally use sportsbookspy for my gauge. Use your judgment if its a few % points higer then 30. And stay away from each last place team in a division. But they have been hitting. I am trying to work on some filters to eliminate losses. But dude its money in the grand scope of things. I don't have any documented results but this time of the year is hot cause of outragouse overated lines and the beginning of the year for the 1st month or so cause the public is all over favs anyway.
 
GL
 
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Posted: #3
8-4 is a very very tiny sample size
you must understand basically all wagering will even out through variance the key is getting the best line price for every game you wager.

 
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Posted: #4
Betting +200 dogs is 14-54, so far, this year. You would have made 15.65 units betting the favorite. The stats on betting +200 dogs is on the link below. In the past six seasons, betting +200 dogs was profitable in 2004 (+24.80 units) and 2007 (+4.75 units).

https://bit.ly/1qcLPS


 
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Posted: #5
Whoops my bad. Betting against dogs in 2004 and 2007 are -24.8- and -4.75 units. There has been no year, in the past six seasons, that betting +200 dogs were profitable.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #6
Someone in the baseball section was doing something like this.  Grandma capper or something like that. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Thanks for the stats guys!!  I was looking for some past data like that.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Someone in the baseball section was doing something like this.  Grandma capper or something like that. 

That was King Scorpio but he was playing every dog every day to prove a point during a 60 day period. During a stretch, the Favorites kept covering.

It was interesting that at 1 point, the record was approx 30 games under 500 yet $$$ wise he was just about at $0..  (The power of the Dog).  A few more favorite covering days and he closed up shop.

Anyway, that experiment was different than playing just +200 dogs.

Best of Luck.

 
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Posted: #9
ok 200+ if your going to do take a good look at who is pitching at a good look at the ERA and WHIP in the game
 
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Posted: #10
but grandma capper  just bet blindly on the dogs no capping of these teams at all
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
I know in NHL, the last 3 seasons, the dogs of +200 or better have won between 29-32 % of the time. If you played these using a conservative progression system (not martingale), you could generate a profit, i believe. I may track a system here during NHL season.
 
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Posted: #12
I know someone else started tracking it after KS stopped doing it.  But yeah, I think he was not taking anything over+215 or something like that.
 
Favs are covering at a bigger clip in the last few years in the NHL. Well really since the rule changes and reffing changes.  As RinkRat likes to say it's the NBA on ice and that has a great deal of truth.  Those home teams seem to get the calls and those are the teams that are the huge favorites.
 
 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by ellingson:

Does anyone have any stats on betting underdogs +200 or more is this a profitable strategy?  I have been doing this for kicks so far on wagerline and am 8-4 +12.78 units so far. 

Here are the records for this season for dogs +200 or more, as well as the ROI of betting on or against them, SU or RL, O/U.:

SU: 16-58 (-2.4 rpg) average line: +222 / -264 on / against: -$2,125 / +$1,450 ROI: -28.7% / +7.4%
RL: 27-47 (-0.9 rpg) average line: +111 / -121 on / against: -$1,745 / +$1,455 ROI: -23.4% / +16.2%
O/U: 36-35-3 (0.3 rpg) average total: 8.9 over / under: -$200 / -$510 ROI: -2.4% / -6.1%

So it seems to me that fading Dogs +200 or more, has been more profitable.

 

 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Adal1205:

Here are the records for this season for dogs +200 or more, as well as the ROI of betting on or against them, SU or RL, O/U.:

SU: 16-58 (-2.4 rpg) average line: +222 / -264 on / against: -$2,125 / +$1,450 ROI: -28.7% / +7.4%
RL: 27-47 (-0.9 rpg) average line: +111 / -121 on / against: -$1,745 / +$1,455 ROI: -23.4% / +16.2%
O/U: 36-35-3 (0.3 rpg) average total: 8.9 over / under: -$200 / -$510 ROI: -2.4% / -6.1%

So it seems to me that fading Dogs +200 or more, has been more profitable.

 

And playing the RL instead of the ML would get you out of a few huge losses.

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