It is probably WAY too early to start this thread, but I have a nice hunch on cashing in on College Hoops. Untested but based on stats and momentum I expect this to do well. I think there will be a boat load of plays early that won't do as well as that plays that go further into the season. If I get off to a good start it will be a bonus.
I expect the early going to be a little rocky so I do not advise betting just yet. I do want to test this publicly though and that's the reason for the post.
I will be keeping things pretty simple and base record-keeping on units. I expect a good amount of plays, but I will be shooting for 60%!
Here goes the first day of picks (all college):
Houston +2
Creighton -12
Delaware +5.5
I really liked Marist +15 and Belmont -3, but apparently others did as well as Belmont has jumped to -4 and Marist already shrunk to +12. Just not comfortable passing a specific line threshold I have set.
I'm also going to track ML plays that I think are very solid. Today they are:
Houston +110
Delaware +200
Bring it!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
It is probably WAY too early to start this thread, but I have a nice hunch on cashing in on College Hoops. Untested but based on stats and momentum I expect this to do well. I think there will be a boat load of plays early that won't do as well as that plays that go further into the season. If I get off to a good start it will be a bonus.
I expect the early going to be a little rocky so I do not advise betting just yet. I do want to test this publicly though and that's the reason for the post.
I will be keeping things pretty simple and base record-keeping on units. I expect a good amount of plays, but I will be shooting for 60%!
Here goes the first day of picks (all college):
Houston +2
Creighton -12
Delaware +5.5
I really liked Marist +15 and Belmont -3, but apparently others did as well as Belmont has jumped to -4 and Marist already shrunk to +12. Just not comfortable passing a specific line threshold I have set.
I'm also going to track ML plays that I think are very solid. Today they are:
Are these computer picks or just your own capping?
Well...they are a combo of the two. I don't really want to rely on either one solely, but the hunch is - when they BOTH align, then it should be a pretty strong play. I like to concentrate on teams that I feel the books have missed interpreting. I am going to attempt winning on ML as well when I think the dog has at least a coin flip's chance of winning. I expect Houston to win tonight and I think the Delaware/Cornell game will go down to the last possession. Anything goes in that situation...
All games are to win 1 unit ATS, risk 1 unit ML.
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Quote Originally Posted by 6figure:
gl man!
Are these computer picks or just your own capping?
Well...they are a combo of the two. I don't really want to rely on either one solely, but the hunch is - when they BOTH align, then it should be a pretty strong play. I like to concentrate on teams that I feel the books have missed interpreting. I am going to attempt winning on ML as well when I think the dog has at least a coin flip's chance of winning. I expect Houston to win tonight and I think the Delaware/Cornell game will go down to the last possession. Anything goes in that situation...
Okay slight change in unit structure. There are two components of these picks, however there are potentially two components of one of the components as well. So what I am going to do is:
- make it a 3 unit play (for record-keeping of course) if all three components align.
- make it a 2 unit play if 2 of the 3 components align.
- make it a 1 unit play when there is a net one component. (This has the potential to be filtered out later as the statistical analysis could come into play as a tiebreaker of sorts).
To be safe it makes sense to avoid a play if there is one not-so-good factor, BUT we are testing here and I say balls out.
Slight change in units for tonight:
2 Units on Houston +2
1 unit on Creighton -12
1 unit on Delaware +5.5
ML Plays will just be 1 unit
1 unit on Houston +110
1 unit on Delaware +200
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Okay slight change in unit structure. There are two components of these picks, however there are potentially two components of one of the components as well. So what I am going to do is:
- make it a 3 unit play (for record-keeping of course) if all three components align.
- make it a 2 unit play if 2 of the 3 components align.
- make it a 1 unit play when there is a net one component. (This has the potential to be filtered out later as the statistical analysis could come into play as a tiebreaker of sorts).
To be safe it makes sense to avoid a play if there is one not-so-good factor, BUT we are testing here and I say balls out.
Loyola-Chicago -1.1 (line move killed it and should've layed off)
Texas +1
4-5 -1.7 units
Money Line
Colorado St. +1.1
Virginia -1
Charlotte -1
Maryland -1
Texas +1.45
2-3 -.45 units
Records:
ATS 5-8 -5.1 units
ML 2-5 -2.45 units
I believe I have learned not to rely on the computer picking ATS. I will only use this as an enhancement to the other strategy instead of the other strategy being used to enhance the computer picks. I will keep paying attention to the computer as the season goes forward as with more info it should get stronger. Too weak now though.
Again...I knew the beginning would be rocky, but feel this will hit a point soon to bring in strong plays.
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Recap of yesterday:
Central Florida -2.2
Colorado St. +2
Rice +2
East Carolina -2.2
Arizona +1
Virginia -1.1
Richmond -1.1
Loyola-Chicago -1.1 (line move killed it and should've layed off)
Texas +1
4-5 -1.7 units
Money Line
Colorado St. +1.1
Virginia -1
Charlotte -1
Maryland -1
Texas +1.45
2-3 -.45 units
Records:
ATS 5-8 -5.1 units
ML 2-5 -2.45 units
I believe I have learned not to rely on the computer picking ATS. I will only use this as an enhancement to the other strategy instead of the other strategy being used to enhance the computer picks. I will keep paying attention to the computer as the season goes forward as with more info it should get stronger. Too weak now though.
Again...I knew the beginning would be rocky, but feel this will hit a point soon to bring in strong plays.
It is already after the tip, but I noticed West Virginia is a 1 unit play -5 against Vandy in San Juan. I personally don't like the play, but will keep track of it for record keeping.
More to come...
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It is already after the tip, but I noticed West Virginia is a 1 unit play -5 against Vandy in San Juan. I personally don't like the play, but will keep track of it for record keeping.
Head-scratcher...The computer also spits out Vanderbilt as a ML play
Vanderbilt +235
It's telling me that Vanderbilt has a better than 29.8% chance of winning this game, but if they lose it will be by more than 5 points. Huh, I vote for the upset
currently the score is 28-18 WVU
(this is for record keeping going forward)
Let's see what happens.
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Head-scratcher...The computer also spits out Vanderbilt as a ML play
Vanderbilt +235
It's telling me that Vanderbilt has a better than 29.8% chance of winning this game, but if they lose it will be by more than 5 points. Huh, I vote for the upset
I will keep tracking this here if these plays begin to show profit. Otherwise this is a ton of work to continue to lose. I am not playing these yet, BUT would like to see this become worth the time. Right now it is not.
Big money! No Wammies!!
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This could be really time consuming!!!
2 Nebraska -4
2 Portland St. +6
2 Illinois-Chicago -5.5
2 Texas +4.5
1 West Virginia -5
1 Rhode Island -4.5
1 George Mason +3
1 Appalachian St. +8
1 Missouri St. -1.5
1 Iowa +5.5
1 Portland +6.5
Money Line
Vanderbilt +235
Seattle +250
Appalachian St. +300
St. Bonaventure +145
Long Beach St. +400
East Carolina +165
College of Charleston +170
Maryland +170
I will keep tracking this here if these plays begin to show profit. Otherwise this is a ton of work to continue to lose. I am not playing these yet, BUT would like to see this become worth the time. Right now it is not.
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