College Football - A system to consider

I've read posts about taking teams based on consensus, injuries, coaches, martingale, and simply flipping a coin.  A couple of comments.

Regarding doing the opposite of most - i use to follow that system to the bank in 1986. However, in 1988 i got my world rocked in a negative way, thus stopped believing doing the opposite of most is the way to go.  I still think it is something to take note of but more of a barometer of how much to bet vice choosing a side. I use to think doubling up was a good thing....until i saw a guy follow that system playing black jack and lost 7 hands and was broke. 

My system:

1. Get the opening lines from donbest - don't use anything else.

2. Find team ranks for total team offense and write that down for each team playing.

3. Find team ranks for total team defense - do the same.

4. go to usa today and find sagarin's website and write down his team rank and sked strength for each team.

5. At this point you should have the opening line, and 4 ranks.

6. Now you need to compare the ranks, for example:

      Az   22 27 26 135

 14 okst 1 48 18  140         

7. What we have here is okst opened at -14.....the first column represents Team total offense, Total Defe., Sagarin rank and sagarin sked strength. I label each rank ABCD. 

8. These ranks are based on lastweeks games - as you can see AZ is better in total defense and sked strength.  I consider this a     2BD/2AC situation.  One may read this and say AZ is the pick -  not so fast. 

9. Based on a 2BD/2AC scenario and with a line of 14 - history has shown that teams that are favored in this situation usually cover the spread.  

10. Thus i will be taking Ok.st - 14.

11. There are a variety of situations based on those 4 ranks (4/0, 3/1, 1/3, etc.)  Based on each scenario with a corresponding line, there are possible outcomes. Find similar situations and bet accordingly.  

12. My advantage is i have data from 2006 - and i add it to a spread sheet. You will need to start collecting.

13. Picks for this week:

Okst, tex, ucla, ul-laffeyette,cmich, smu, cin, vandy, Ga tech, fla atlantic, wash st, fresno st, ark. - once again, not guessing flipping a coin, or worried about who most are taking, simply using data to derive my decision.  All are against the spread, whatever it may be.

TB

So far on complete game bets - i'm 27 - 13 - check my blog or space and you can see my posts. This year, i have been putting my data into a spreadsheet so it's easier to search and find similar patterns.  For example, tonite i love houston, the reason why:

Houst 16.5     3 75 44 141

Utep               92 93  105  82      

In this game, i consider it a 3/1D   situation b/c houst is better in 3 categories, and utep has a better sked strength. History has shown, if the three team is favored and has a single digit in it's rankings, there is a strong likelyhood of a cover.  This pattern played out last week in 3 games, flor, oregon and vt - all three covered the opening and ending line - vt might have been a push for some if it was 20. Thus my rationale for going with houston.  Good luck all.

TB