Basically Fade the Consensus Public. Very simple, If a game is highlighted on the covers consensus meaning 59% on one side pick the Underdog everytime.
However if the underdog is favored by public chose the Dog. I only bet games that are highlighted.
Day 1 Picks to be decided. I wait until a half hour before tipoff to gather all data since people are voting all day leading up to the game.
Backtesting the entire NBA season put the record at 72-48-4.
Lets get some cash.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Basically Fade the Consensus Public. Very simple, If a game is highlighted on the covers consensus meaning 59% on one side pick the Underdog everytime.
However if the underdog is favored by public chose the Dog. I only bet games that are highlighted.
Day 1 Picks to be decided. I wait until a half hour before tipoff to gather all data since people are voting all day leading up to the game.
Backtesting the entire NBA season put the record at 72-48-4.
Hey thanks XLR8. You are one of the posters I follow now. I love your Over/Under picks.
Day 1 picks
NJ +10
Portland +2.5
76ers +5
Well decent first day. I really thought it could have gone 3-0 if NJ would have made a basket in the last 2 minutes, Oh well...A plus day is nice.
Oh starting balance is 100. If I lose it all, no biggie. I feel this trend wont last, but we will see.
Record (2-1) +13.75
Todays Leans
Wizards +3
Chicago +2
GS +9
Detroit +4
I will be by later with the final card before the games start. I made the mistake of betting the games in the morning, then they dropped out of range and the bets lost. So I dont want to do that again.
LETS GET SOME CASH
0
Hey thanks XLR8. You are one of the posters I follow now. I love your Over/Under picks.
Day 1 picks
NJ +10
Portland +2.5
76ers +5
Well decent first day. I really thought it could have gone 3-0 if NJ would have made a basket in the last 2 minutes, Oh well...A plus day is nice.
Oh starting balance is 100. If I lose it all, no biggie. I feel this trend wont last, but we will see.
Record (2-1) +13.75
Todays Leans
Wizards +3
Chicago +2
GS +9
Detroit +4
I will be by later with the final card before the games start. I made the mistake of betting the games in the morning, then they dropped out of range and the bets lost. So I dont want to do that again.
I dont think it would work on totals. Everyone is split 50/50, but I havent really checked the Totals.
For some reason Covers consensus is gets the dogs right when they all agree. I dont understand why it works, but Dogs were 14-4-1 when Covers consensus is highlighted in the Dogs favor. So I will roll with that strategy.
Tried with football and it did pretty miserable for the few weeks i checked.
The funny thing is the first 2 months last year went -10 units. I feel this years NBA is more parody. Is it just me or does it seem like anybody can win or keep it close on any given night??
Last year we had the Haves and Have not teams, this year it seems to be better balanced across the board. This strategy could flop and its why I am only putting 100 towards it. I have been following since December 1st and I have done well
One Note: IF you were to bet 1unit on ML and 1Unit on spread you would be up a ton, but I am too chicken to try it.
Goodluck all and please no bashers, I know there is no strategy really to this, I found a trend and im going to try to pound it.
0
I dont think it would work on totals. Everyone is split 50/50, but I havent really checked the Totals.
For some reason Covers consensus is gets the dogs right when they all agree. I dont understand why it works, but Dogs were 14-4-1 when Covers consensus is highlighted in the Dogs favor. So I will roll with that strategy.
Tried with football and it did pretty miserable for the few weeks i checked.
The funny thing is the first 2 months last year went -10 units. I feel this years NBA is more parody. Is it just me or does it seem like anybody can win or keep it close on any given night??
Last year we had the Haves and Have not teams, this year it seems to be better balanced across the board. This strategy could flop and its why I am only putting 100 towards it. I have been following since December 1st and I have done well
One Note: IF you were to bet 1unit on ML and 1Unit on spread you would be up a ton, but I am too chicken to try it.
Goodluck all and please no bashers, I know there is no strategy really to this, I found a trend and im going to try to pound it.
Hey thanks XLR8. You are one of the posters I follow now. I love your Over/Under picks.
Day 1 picks
NJ +10 THEY MUST OF CALL YOU MR. UNDER DOG
Portland +2.5
76ers +5
Well decent first day. I really thought it could have gone 3-0 if NJ would have made a basket in the last 2 minutes, Oh well...A plus day is nice.
Oh starting balance is 100. If I lose it all, no biggie. I feel this trend wont last, but we will see.
Record (2-1) +13.75
Todays Leans
Wizards +3
Chicago +2
GS +9
Detroit +4
I will be by later with the final card before the games start. I made the mistake of betting the games in the morning, then they dropped out of range and the bets lost. So I dont want to do that again.
LETS GET SOME CASH
0
Quote Originally Posted by wknap:
Hey thanks XLR8. You are one of the posters I follow now. I love your Over/Under picks.
Day 1 picks
NJ +10 THEY MUST OF CALL YOU MR. UNDER DOG
Portland +2.5
76ers +5
Well decent first day. I really thought it could have gone 3-0 if NJ would have made a basket in the last 2 minutes, Oh well...A plus day is nice.
Oh starting balance is 100. If I lose it all, no biggie. I feel this trend wont last, but we will see.
Record (2-1) +13.75
Todays Leans
Wizards +3
Chicago +2
GS +9
Detroit +4
I will be by later with the final card before the games start. I made the mistake of betting the games in the morning, then they dropped out of range and the bets lost. So I dont want to do that again.
Denver was in the 60% Range and then fell to 56% so it will be a no bet.
GL
Lets get some Cash
Sorry Folks. I do not bet on the weekends. I live in Hawaii and well following sports on the weekends is a waste. The trend is off to a rocky start already. Seems that way when you start documenting. Oh well, Follow if you wish
Record 3-4 ( minus -22.50
updated Balance $77.50
Saturday went 0-2 and Sunday went 2-1
Todays card which should not change by the start of game time
Bucks +7.5
Warriors +11
both 16.75 to win 15
GL ALL
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Quote Originally Posted by wknap:
Final Card
Wizards +3 -16.75
Chicago +2 +15
GS +9 -16.75
Detroit +4 -16.75
Denver was in the 60% Range and then fell to 56% so it will be a no bet.
GL
Lets get some Cash
Sorry Folks. I do not bet on the weekends. I live in Hawaii and well following sports on the weekends is a waste. The trend is off to a rocky start already. Seems that way when you start documenting. Oh well, Follow if you wish
Record 3-4 ( minus -22.50
updated Balance $77.50
Saturday went 0-2 and Sunday went 2-1
Todays card which should not change by the start of game time
For the person who asked about different sports. I did not test it, but I did go back and test the O/U and if you bet against the consensus highlighted favorite it would have been 63-44 with a winning % of 58. So not too bad of a clip either.
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For the person who asked about different sports. I did not test it, but I did go back and test the O/U and if you bet against the consensus highlighted favorite it would have been 63-44 with a winning % of 58. So not too bad of a clip either.
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