Posted:
#1
Over my last 5 years i have made just over 500 NFL bets
350 regular plays
125 large plays
25 max plays give or take
Only once have my max wagers fallen on the same date and time (ex. both sunday at 1). However, The large plays do occasionally fall on the same day/time. Over these 5 years the large plays have won at 57.48% of the time or 57.5%. This average is slighly higher over the last3 years but 5 years is just a larger sample size and one could always cool off regarless of hard work, stategy, and theory. My question is hitting at an avergae of 57.5 on what my handicapping procedure considers a large wager, does it make sence to play these games in a 2 team parlay.
I'm thinking yes, but Im not ging to start this without knowing I am 100% mathematically correct because i will NEVER have my omney in a matematically "wrong" situation. I will (often) make a stupid bet but I will not be fundaentally wrong in anything I do from a gambling sence.
.575*.575= .330625 or 33%
a parlay of 2 large wagers will cash 33% of the time. With a win % of 33% one would need to be betting into a line of +200 to break even. Is this correct. Seeing that sportsbooks - even the shit ones typically pay and average of +250 -+260 and some much much better- the odds seem to be drastically in my favor.
again this seems simple to me but running this past the minds of others as a way of double checking is just smart IMO. If i am missing something i would rather someone lauagh at me now than have my books laughing the rest of the season.
Thanks in advance
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