Could system this be profitable?

Question

Back testing a potential NFL system as a 4 game chase, both ATS and Totals, avg (-110). Looked good for two years, with only 4 losses combined, but the third year has 7 losses.

I have this in a spreadsheet if it helps to show week to week exposure. Could this be profitable if it were pared back to a 2 or 3 game chase, maybe use labby lines, martingale, or even flat betting?

Spent a good amount of time on this project and wanted to be sure that it's truly a lost cause before I scrap it. I can group the winners like this.

Year 3
Game 1 = 47 wins
Game 2 = 31 wins
Game 3 = 15 wins
Game 4 = 7 wins
Game 4 losses = 7 =(

Any consideration will be greatly appreciated.

Prime1 · Answer

Back testing a potential NFL system as a 4 game chase, both ATS and Totals, avg (-110). Looked good for two years, with only 4 losses combined, but the third year has 7 losses.

I have this in a spreadsheet if it helps to show week to week exposure. Could this be profitable if it were pared back to a 2 or 3 game chase, maybe use labby lines, martingale, or even flat betting?

Spent a good amount of time on this project and wanted to be sure that it's truly a lost cause before I scrap it. I can group the winners like this.

Year 3
Game 1 = 47 wins
Game 2 = 31 wins
Game 3 = 15 wins
Game 4 = 7 wins
Game 4 losses = 7 =(

Any consideration will be greatly appreciated.

Snappa · Answer

Hey, Prime.  Your system looks like it might work, you (or somebody) just need to finish the homework. And I know you&#x27;ve already done a lot of work, but you need more info.  I suggest expanding your backtest to five seasons, then plugging in different wagering methods (flat bets, lab. lines, etc) along with determining an appropriate unit size, and see what you come up with for each season.  If ALL 5 seasons show a reasonable return, then, my friend you might have something worth putting some green on, although  you must keep in mind that past results do not guarantee future outcomes.  GL and hope you post here if you decide to go with it!

Prime1 · Answer

Thanks for your input Snappa. I wish I could edit the Thread title, as I sound like a complete idiot. That's what I get for trying to get on this site during work hours. I wish I could post a spreadsheet here so that the right numbers guy, with more system experience, could quickly review the week to week results, and point us in the right direction.

I feel like reposting this thread title correctly may add a touch of credibility, so that someone might take a chance on the merit of the work. This system was based on the NFL, but I've noticed similar patterns with NBA, NHL, college Basketball, and Canadian football. It's a very simple and unemotional approach, inspired by the style that Smitler is using in his First Inning Chase.

Snappa · Answer

I see what you mean,Prime.  Why don&#x27;t you re-post.  If you phrase it in a more positive and commanding way, I&#x27;m sure you&#x27;ll get more hits.  It sounds like you have some confidence in this system, so why not throw it out there and then watch the critiques come in.  Just don&#x27;t pay any attention to the idiots that post a reply just to bash.  Hey I hope I didn&#x27;t sound condescending in any way in my reply to your first post. I didn&#x27;t intend to...I don&#x27;t claim to be an expert on this subject, but I generally have a conservative approach...doesn&#x27;t mean my way is better.

over-dosed · Answer

I second Snappa enouraging you to repost. Have confidence in what u do, and just ignore the haters....GL Prime.

Could system this be profitable?

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