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#1
rules: both starting pitchers must have pitched 40 innings or more.
play no game over -180
divide the avg. runs scored for( per game) for each team by their expected era.
to calculate era take 0.67% of the starting pitcher and 0.33% of available bullpen. add the 2 together to get final era.
divide runs scored by era=team index figure (do for both teams)
add the 2 index figures together.
take the team with the highest index fig. and divide that by the total index to get a winning %.
convert % to moneyline odds. add 17cents to home team.
possible wagers would be games that are 15 cents or more different than posted odds!
example:
nyy 5.72rs per game
st. pitcher era=3.14 bullpen=1.26 total era=4.40
bost rs 5.26 per game
st.pitcher era=2.74 bullpen=0.80 total era=3.54
nyy team index=1.30(5.72/4.40)
bost team index=1.48(5.26/3.54)
take 1.48/2.78=53.2%= -114(bost.fav.) add 17 cents for home fieid=bost.-131 fav.
convert to 8 cent line. calc.= bost-135 nyy +127
it's funny thats what covers has this game at.
how many people have i confused!!!!
i'm using overall stats,not home and away.
i know a guy who won a baseball contest here in vegas using this system,that why i'm sharing with you.
i never took typing in high school so sorry about my format!
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