Critique this system

Betting unders system for specific pitchers every time the pitcher starts (pitchers I have charted and analysed (and as of today have started betting for these pitchers games) include F Liriano, J Peavy, C Young, G Meche, Z Grienke, F Hernandez.

 

Factors/Assumptions:

Odds are unders 7 (usually 8 but giving leanway).

Return: $1.75 per dollar invested (leanway for minimum)

Bet are $25.00, therefore profit is $18.75 per bet.

 

A pitcher starts roughly 30 times per season. I am looking at making $562.50 (approx) from the pitcher, on the assumption I am placing a $25.00 bet every time one of the above pitcher starts.

 

If you do some analysis on the abovementione pitchers (previous 2 seasons), only once/twice throughout the season have they ever piched consecutive over for games 3x times.

 

Rule: Every bet, place $25.00 per start.

 

When a pitcher loses, you bet to recover the amount you have lost include the profit you would have made from the lost bet.

 

So, if you lose 1 bet, you would bet $83 the next game, then $219, then $536, then $1,275. Once you win, you restart with $25.00 again.

 

Of course, the only risk is that pitchers go "X" consecutive games overs, which is always a possibility in betting, but NEVER have the above pitchers I researched gone 3 consecutive games overs within the past 2 years so there's comfort, and if they did, it'll only be once or twice per season, so the worry and risk is "minimal" considering there is a chance you may need to invest $1,275.00 (or more).

 

Having said that, assuming you bet 30 times per season for the pitcher on the amount of $25.00, then you would be making $550 - $650 (depending on odds) for one particular pitcher per season....Its not much but considering you're only risking $25.00 per bet (up to a figure of $1,275.00 or more), it all adds up in the end :)

The six pitchers you mentioned will all be above .5OO in the W-L at the end of the season. which brings minimum risk factor. This alone, however; is not enough. Variables, such as middle relief, and closer, should be considered before making a final decision.

Your looking at wagering on roughly 180 games using these six pitchers, to be successful, and your system to thrive, you must win a minimum of 100 games per season to give a true success ratio, according to your unit management formula, this would give you a minimum return of +2O units/ or in your particular case, a $2000 per year net..best regards