Using pregame numbers, look at any team that has over 80% of public on it. If the line for that team is moving up (ex, -180 to -160), bet opposite.
Theory being; public is on the square side, heavy sharp money is on the other side.
For the sake of this week, I am simply going to try to learn if there are any trigger points I should be looking for. Say over 90% with a 10 pt move? or over 80% but only with a 20 pt move?
May 21st;
st.louis 98% +7 = kansas city +118
cleveland 89% +10 = cincinnati -105
baltimore 99% flat = washington +145
yanks 92% +10 = new york mets +165
sanfran 87% +11 = oakland +134
Simply enough, underlined teams are the play. Again, I am only tracking this for a week or so, but thought others might be interested.
If anyone has any info on this, or has tried it, please please please share your info.
CT
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Tracking for one week.
Simple system;
Using pregame numbers, look at any team that has over 80% of public on it. If the line for that team is moving up (ex, -180 to -160), bet opposite.
Theory being; public is on the square side, heavy sharp money is on the other side.
For the sake of this week, I am simply going to try to learn if there are any trigger points I should be looking for. Say over 90% with a 10 pt move? or over 80% but only with a 20 pt move?
May 21st;
st.louis 98% +7 = kansas city +118
cleveland 89% +10 = cincinnati -105
baltimore 99% flat = washington +145
yanks 92% +10 = new york mets +165
sanfran 87% +11 = oakland +134
Simply enough, underlined teams are the play. Again, I am only tracking this for a week or so, but thought others might be interested.
If anyone has any info on this, or has tried it, please please please share your info.
Ahhh sir, you are correct. Sorry, I spent alot of the night looking into the legitimacy of this, I think spreadsheets boggled my mind. Let me redo those picks.
Today's only moneyline play;
detroit 72% +15 = Pittsburg +115
I am thinking anything over 68% (this is one of the numbers I use in basketball) will be the trigger percentage.
The line at 0 movement or plus movement is part 2 of the trigger.
Also looking at a totals system like this, but based on 80% and no movement.....but I just have too many pots on the stove right now, so I'll stick with this moneyline for the week.
Just to clarify;
When 68% or more are on the moneyline, and the line is moving opposite those public percentages (or zero movement), follow the movement, not the public.
I am not sure about the stipulations on when to take these lines. For the trial, I will say whenever I happen to take the time to do this, but for later on, if it's looking profitable, I will likely make a designated time of day.
Just for the record, I am not an MLB capper, I am doing this purely from a theory perspective. If this week or two goes well, (which I expect it will), I will pick this up for the season after nba is done.
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Ahhh sir, you are correct. Sorry, I spent alot of the night looking into the legitimacy of this, I think spreadsheets boggled my mind. Let me redo those picks.
Today's only moneyline play;
detroit 72% +15 = Pittsburg +115
I am thinking anything over 68% (this is one of the numbers I use in basketball) will be the trigger percentage.
The line at 0 movement or plus movement is part 2 of the trigger.
Also looking at a totals system like this, but based on 80% and no movement.....but I just have too many pots on the stove right now, so I'll stick with this moneyline for the week.
Just to clarify;
When 68% or more are on the moneyline, and the line is moving opposite those public percentages (or zero movement), follow the movement, not the public.
I am not sure about the stipulations on when to take these lines. For the trial, I will say whenever I happen to take the time to do this, but for later on, if it's looking profitable, I will likely make a designated time of day.
Just for the record, I am not an MLB capper, I am doing this purely from a theory perspective. If this week or two goes well, (which I expect it will), I will pick this up for the season after nba is done.
Pregame does not have opening lines posted, only current lines. Used vegasinsider stats for today's play.
Day 2 plays;
min 76% +15 = Arizona -160
sea 73% +5 = san diego +120
Not sure about this sea/sd play...hilton has different numbers (-5) than sportsbook.com (+5). I will consider this to cancel each other, and be zero movement, which triggers.
This is what I mean about needing a specific time and site, for consistency.
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trial 1-0
Pregame does not have opening lines posted, only current lines. Used vegasinsider stats for today's play.
Day 2 plays;
min 76% +15 = Arizona -160
sea 73% +5 = san diego +120
Not sure about this sea/sd play...hilton has different numbers (-5) than sportsbook.com (+5). I will consider this to cancel each other, and be zero movement, which triggers.
This is what I mean about needing a specific time and site, for consistency.
Also not sure if I should be playing flat to win 1 unit, or wagering one unit to win whatever. I think to be conservative, I will play it to win 1 unit.
Which means so far......
1 unit = $100
+$55
0
ytd 2-2
today's plays;
stlouis 77% +18 = san diego +112
tampa bady 86% +13 = detroit -103
Also not sure if I should be playing flat to win 1 unit, or wagering one unit to win whatever. I think to be conservative, I will play it to win 1 unit.
Well....still unconvinced on this system. Although if it weren't for the 1-5 day, this would be sitting at 7-6 and be up a nice amount of units. I should only need about 45% to make money.
I am thinking it deserves another few days of tracking.
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trial run 8-11
$-54
philly 70% +55 = nym -115
atl 68% +8 = cincincnati +127
boston gm 2 82% +18 = detroit -103
texas 77% +20 = kansas city +190
boston gm 1 81% +9 = detroit +142
Well....still unconvinced on this system. Although if it weren't for the 1-5 day, this would be sitting at 7-6 and be up a nice amount of units. I should only need about 45% to make money.
I am thinking it deserves another few days of tracking.
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