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Dog Chase 2014

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Everybody and their brother seems to have a system now a days...

I just wanted to throw mine out there to the great people of covers.com for viewing pleasure.

This is my second year with the system. It's a simple three game chase for (typically) the series underdog. I use series prices to make sure I don't get slammed with a stupid line for game three. Many other factors are considered.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Results for 2013 MLB Season
System: 48-2 (96%)
Overall: 48-35 (57.83%)
Profit: +44.24 units
ROI: 28.93%
*A more detailed 2013 record can be found on a blog on my covers space page
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Results for 2014 MLB Season (so far)
April
System: 8-1 (88.89%)
Overall: 8-7 (53.33%)
Profit: +6.03 units
ROI: 22.82%
May
System: 11-1 (91.67%)
Overall: 11-11 (50%)
Profit: +8.96 units
ROI: 21.91%
June
System: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 2-1 (66.67%)
Profit: +2.27 units
ROI: 113.5% *system play pending, not up to date*

2014 MLB Season
System: 21-2 (91.30%)
Overall: 21-18 (53.85%)
Profit: +17.26 units
ROI: 24.21% *system play pending, not up to date*

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I make it a point to average at least a ROI (Return of Investment) of 20% for each month. One last thing, if you wish to see the Google docs spreadsheet just message me and I'll send you a link. All the info is there nicely organized with formulas and everything.

Today System Play (Wednesday June 4th)

G2 (Game 2) Giants -101
*Bet to win game 1 loss plus 1 unit

 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
... and yes, I'll be posting my picks in the appropriate forum. You can find them under "Dog Chase 2014" in the MLB Betting forum. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Correction: You can follow the system and view the plays with this link...
https://www.sportsplays.com/forum/topic/17441/dog-chase-2014/10.html

Happy Trailing! Good Luck!
 
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Posted: #4
I have been doing the same thing this season and it has been working well.. 

I took inspiration from your thread that you posted here on Covers last year with the summary of your results also from Qbun.. the dog with the wig is running the same type of thread in the MLB section... 

Personally I only play i series per new set, just so I can reduce the possibility of a sweep..

I also run a faves on the run line... I notice you do more spot plays for this... I have been achieving some good results so far chasing a fave from G1 of a new series to win on the RL.. get some good payouts as you know..

Instead of martingale I use aggressive labby as my money management..

My goal is to achieve over 100 units for the season.. so far on track.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Goodsy,

Only 1 series per new set? And your goal is over 100 units? Very Ambitious. I was thinking, though, that If you only do 1 series per set, then you're only looking at 8-10 plays a month. Are you sure the 100 units is feasible? ... assuming each system win pays out 1 unit.
 
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Posted: #6
O. and with the Giants win tonight, that puts me here for the season:

Dog Chase Records
System: 22-2 (91.67%)
Overall: 22-19 (53.66%)
Profit: $54.77 *1 unit = $3*
ROI: 25.61%

June
System: 3-0 (100%)
Overall: 3-1 (75%)
Profit: $9.81
ROI: 64.75%
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Tad:

Goodsy,

Only 1 series per new set? And your goal is over 100 units? Very Ambitious. I was thinking, though, that If you only do 1 series per set, then you're only looking at 8-10 plays a month. Are you sure the 100 units is feasible? ... assuming each system win pays out 1 unit.

Running both the Dog system in conjunction with Fave on RL system I am hopeful for 100+ units yep.

I started it in May.. so 5 months worth of plays remain from then. I have 8 units per month per system (that is 2 per week)... so 16 units both systems combined x 5 months is 80 units.... 

I am playing to risk, not to win, so there will be extra units earned because I am playing with +odds... I figure I can gain an extra 20 to maybe even upwards 40 units pushing that figure over 100.

Also playing aggressive labby I recoup losses...

It has been working well so far.. currently up 23 units after 1 month (and have some losses to recoup along the way)..

That is the grand plan anyways..
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
I just spent some time and back tracked the run line spot plays I've been doing (not the dog chase system, this is something else I do on the side)... and I did a duplicate spreadsheet but adjusted the wagers as if I were doing a labouchere system. The results are astounding.

My Run Line bets since April 30th (when I started tracking them)
Record: 18-18 (50%)
Average RL: +141

Betting as spot plays (flat rate of $1.00 risked per bet)
Profit: $7.39
Total Risked: $37.00
ROI: 19.97% ... good, but...

Betting using Labouchere management (used line $0.50-$0.50-$0.50-$0.50)
Profit: $24.93
Total Risked: $84.00
ROI: 29.68%

Using the same exact bets, I would've been up 3x as much profit with a ROI of +10%! I'm definitely kicking myself for not realizing this sooner!
 
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Posted: #9
Goodsy,

How do you apply the Lab system with a 3 game series? Only reason why I'm asking is because if you lose game 1 and 2, then you don't recover all your losses with a game 3 win. You mentioned that you use an "aggressive" lab system, care to share exactly what you meant by that? 

Thanks in advance.
 
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Posted: #10
Hey Tad… I have taken a few notes during my research and tried a few different methods over that time and I prefer aggressive labby over original labby and others.

I have been using aggressive labby now for atleast 6 months and I like it.. you can quickly recoup your losses and continue to gain your full units of profit.. 

I will copy and past some info below that will be most useful from what I have taken… I think it may even be from DanRules.. wish I kept the links. Anyways..

Firstly, my base unit is 0.5% of my starting bankroll at the start of a new season, it does not change until a new season begins… last thing you want is to do go on a bad losing streak when you just upped your unit size… others might think I am too conservative, but for me this eleviates a lot of stress… also being conservative also allows me to continue utilising aggressive labby during the middle of a bad run..which happens.

Here is the info I mentioned (I will go into more info next post about setting up my labby lines for a 3 game series)

"Set up your labby lines. Then if you lose a game, split the loss into 2 and add it onto the last number on the line played and the 2nd part of it on the last number of the 2nd line. If the last number is getting too high then split it up and do the same.

run an aggressive labby for this which works nicely as there are limited plays going on at any one time. If the lines get to heavy I just split the numbers.

Make a separate line for each Game level A, B, and C bets

50-50
50-50
50-50

Say I play 150 to win 100 on a Game 1. If it loses I split the amount and split it on that line and the one below

50-125
50-125
50-50

So my next A bet I play to win 175 as well as my B bet. This spreads the burden of recovering loses through all levels of games. If we go on a losing streak and the numbers get too big I will just split the bigger number. I try to do that very rarely. The biggest key is to make sure your original base bet is comfortable for your bankroll (I generally don't set it at more than 2-3% of my bankroll)"
 
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Posted: #11
Hope that makes sense…. there is plenty of info right here on Covers about aggressive labby.. a good thread to read is one by therizz where he runs his MLB system.. very good info in it.

So you have your 3 lines for A,B,C i.e. G1, G2, G3…

My left number is my unit of profit… for ease lets say my unit $1. Then, my right number is the amount I am to recoup… so at the start of a season my lines will look nice and clean.. (and hopefully every few weeks).. for example:

A) 1 / x
B) 1 / x
C) 1 / x

Now let's say I play my first chase of the new season (remember that with plus money systems I bet to risk, not to win) I bet my line A as it's G1… so my bet is $1.00

Now if I lose that… I split that 1.00 into 2 and put it on the right number of same line and line below… so it will now look like this..

A) 1 / 0.50
B) 1 / 0.50
C) 1 / x

Now we move onto B (G2)… so now I bet to risk 1.50, If I win I cross out the right number and go back to A bet once a new series begins… and bet accordingly.

If I lose the B bet… I again split my loss of 1.50 in half and place it on same line and one below. So now lines would like this:

A) 1 / 0.50
B) 1 / 1.25
C) 1 / 0.75

So, we move onto C bet (G3)…. my bet for this game is 1.75, again if I win then I cross out my right number on C bet line and start again from A bet on a new series (noting that there will be losses to recover along the way). 
If l lost my C bet.. this is what I do… I split that loss into 3 and place it over the 3 lines.. but I will make a judgement call, because B can obviously get heavy during a bad run… so I may move some numbers, but I try to keep this to a minimum.

My left number never changes for the season… that is constant as it's my profit side. The right side is my recovery side.

So at the start a new set it is likely your A bet will be higher than an A game martingale. The thing with aggressive is that it makes the B and C games less stressful to play.. especially knowing that you will recover losses.

Hope that all makes sense… I may have overcomplicated it or not made sense as I am watching some Rugby having a few beers. 
 
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Posted: #12
Personally, I highly recommend aggressive labby… it's a good in-between of martingale and classic labby.

If you are considering to try out aggressive labby, i recommend just continuing with what is working for you, and trial for 1 month the aggressive labby… there is some adjustment and uncertainty when you first try it.. also need to readjust comfort levels. 

That way you get used to running it… I would hate to see you lose out on profits because it did not feel right for you.
 
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Posted: #13
Thanks Goodsy. Much appreciated. 
 
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Posted: #14
No probs… just to clarify… when I say a bad run, I mean a bad run on A bets or B bets etc.. i.e. 4 consecutively wrong A bets.. because then your A line may start to get heavy because you haven't cleared it for awhile.

Good luck with it.. 
 
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Posted: #15
Hey Tad.. I have sent you a PM.. sorry to announce it everyone but in my experience on Covers unless that person checks their Covers inbox regularly they won't know there is a message as there is no notification.... that's in my experience so far.
 
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Posted: #16
By doing Aggressive Labby as my MM I am now up 49 units both systems combined after 1.5 months... bang !

That's even with 3 system losses on Faves on RL.. thankful to the creator of Aggressive Labby as those losses have been recouped.

Chasing plus odds one play at a time is the way to dreamland..


 
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Posted: #17
Goodsy, I have a question for you if you dont mind..

When you are playing the fave on the RL, lets say STL for their series against MIA.. And they dont cover the 1.5 the 1st game, what is the play for the next game of the series?

Just double the bet and pull for them to cover the spread once the next 2 games? Bet the ML at that point and pull for them to win the series?

Appreciate it man
 
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Posted: #18
Goodsy what is your unit total at now with aggressive  labby?
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by SwiftChange:

Goodsy, I have a question for you if you dont mind..

When you are playing the fave on the RL, lets say STL for their series against MIA.. And they dont cover the 1.5 the 1st game, what is the play for the next game of the series?

Just double the bet and pull for them to cover the spread once the next 2 games? Bet the ML at that point and pull for them to win the series?

Appreciate it man

If you don't win on the RL for G1 then make the same bet for G2 and G3 if reqd.. so in your case STL to win by 2+ will be your bet each game of the series until you are successful, once you win ONE bet then stop playing that series and wait till a new series starts.

However the amount you bet will depend on the type on money management you use… I strongly recommend not using martingale for the RL system.. there will be system losses, that's guaranteed. Aggressive labby works well because you can recoup losses.

I try to stick with teams that have power hitting.. as they can do it with 1 swing of the bat late in the game… teams Brewers, Tigers, O's, Angels, Jays etc etc.. just make sure they have some recent form about them..
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:

Goodsy what is your unit total at now with aggressive  labby?

It's currently 55 units combined.

Had a bad run last week or so.. I currently have 29 units I am in the middle of recovering… it sounds like a lot to recover.. but it's not with agg labby. It's just 2 or 3 wins in each system and that's it. 
 
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Posted: #21
Goodsy,

I am still a novice at this and just recently started chasing teams to not get swept. Reds @ SD hurt the bankroll a bit, was using the martindale strategy.

Still trying to understand the labby system, havent been able to find a real good explanation of it.

Lets say im going to chase the OAK RL vs SF for this upcoming 4 game series, and my starting bet is $10..

Game 1 line is 5-5-5-5?

With a game 1 loss it becomes

5-5-5-5-10? (Bet $15) ?

Game 2 loss it becomes

5-5-5-5-10-15? (Bet $20) ?

Game 3 loss..

5-5-5-5-10-15-20 (Bet 25) ?

Say game 4 hits.. I clear the 20 and 5, do i then bet the 5-15 ($20) on the next series chase?

Thanks for your time! 


 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by SwiftChange:

Goodsy,

I am still a novice at this and just recently started chasing teams to not get swept. Reds @ SD hurt the bankroll a bit, was using the martindale strategy.

Still trying to understand the labby system, havent been able to find a real good explanation of it.

Lets say im going to chase the OAK RL vs SF for this upcoming 4 game series, and my starting bet is $10..

Game 1 line is 5-5-5-5?

With a game 1 loss it becomes

5-5-5-5-10? (Bet $15) ?

Game 2 loss it becomes

5-5-5-5-10-15? (Bet $20) ?

Game 3 loss..

5-5-5-5-10-15-20 (Bet 25) ?

Say game 4 hits.. I clear the 20 and 5, do i then bet the 5-15 ($20) on the next series chase?

Thanks for your time! 



Hey SwiftChange.. Your explanation is exactly right playing normal labouchere on one line. You could do the same thing but create 3 lines A B and C just to help keep the lines to a minimum. So line A is for G1 line B is for G2 and so forth.

Personally I don't really like the standard labby.. I much prefer aggressive labby because then you are always one or two wins away from clearing lines.

Experiment the 2 different types of money management to see what feels right for you.

I'm hearing ya for the Reds loss on Padres... It burnt me too. Actually it burnt me straight after Tigers couldn't win by 2 over Astros. That was back to back series losses. But I am still more than in the game because I set a very small starting unit.

A good plus money system.. Combined with good money management and starting unit will see you earn money. Just make sure that you can suffer a few series losses and still continue.. There will be down swings, so it's important to be able to have enough BR to continue and be able to recoup. The way I am going I will easily eclipse my goal of 100 units. Just be consistent and trust it.
 
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Posted: #23
Whatever you do... Stay away from martingale. This system is not for martingale MM style. Otherwise you probably won't see out the season.
 
 
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Posted: #24
Can those work with systems that have multiple plays each day?
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