Fading road teams on second night of back-to-back night games in different cities

Question

I know this has been addressed by someone else at some point, but I tried a search of the Forum and found nothing.

I've had moderate success fading MLB teams on Mondays when they play on the road for Sunday Night Baseball, then go on the road to a different city the following night.

An example was Cincinnati earlier this week: they were in Chicago for the Sunday night game, then on the road in Detroit Monday night. They were a fade for me on Monday (albeit with super high juice), and they got shutout 6-0.

It's a very small sample size because the Sunday Night road team often goes home for the next series or simply doesn't play on Monday, but it's been working alright for me.

I'm wondering if this works outside of Sunday night? For instance, there are a number of teams playing on the road tonight that will be on the road in a different city tomorrow night (Miami, Tampa, NY Mets, Cubs, Boston, Detroit, Pitt, Milwaukee, SF, Texas). I wonder if there's any value in fading them on the second night of back-to-back road games in different cities, much like the road team on Sunday / Monday nights?

If anyone out there has tried or tested this, or remembers this from previous discussions I'm curious to know what you found. Thanks.

washhead · Answer

I know this has been addressed by someone else at some point, but I tried a search of the Forum and found nothing.

I've had moderate success fading MLB teams on Mondays when they play on the road for Sunday Night Baseball, then go on the road to a different city the following night.

An example was Cincinnati earlier this week: they were in Chicago for the Sunday night game, then on the road in Detroit Monday night. They were a fade for me on Monday (albeit with super high juice), and they got shutout 6-0.

It's a very small sample size because the Sunday Night road team often goes home for the next series or simply doesn't play on Monday, but it's been working alright for me.

I'm wondering if this works outside of Sunday night? For instance, there are a number of teams playing on the road tonight that will be on the road in a different city tomorrow night (Miami, Tampa, NY Mets, Cubs, Boston, Detroit, Pitt, Milwaukee, SF, Texas). I wonder if there's any value in fading them on the second night of back-to-back road games in different cities, much like the road team on Sunday / Monday nights?

If anyone out there has tried or tested this, or remembers this from previous discussions I'm curious to know what you found. Thanks.

washhead · Answer

Well, what the heck, let&#x27;s start tracking it.  As my initial post mentioned, there are 10 teams that fit the criteria tonight.  So the plays will be:CIN -125 (fade MIA)CLE -155 (fade TB)ATL &#x2B;128 (fade NYM)MIN -110 (fade CHC)KC -118 (fade BOS)NYY -117 (fade DET)WAS &#x2B;108 (fade PIT)COL -142 (fade MIL)LAD -139 (fade SF)CHW -170 (fade TEX)At first glance this looks like a losing card.  Lots of chalk, it&#x27;ll need at least 6 if not 7 to break even.  But let&#x27;s see...

rivermonsterz · Answer

I think your theory can be used to assist in making picks, but stand alone I don't think it's a wise idea to play.
This theory was used for hockey a few years ago in these forums.
Also I think Seattle would the criteria as a play.

washhead · Answer

Results as I expected: 5-5, -1.88 units. Maybe worth tracking a little longer to see if the trend reverses or holds.

Seattle was not a play because Houston played during the day Thursday. I'm only looking at teams that play night games in different cities two consecutive nights.

Luckydan · Answer

Two recent plays that I saw were the DBacks in game 2 at SF. SF got back from NY around 5 am PDT and lost game 1 that night. The dreaded second game scenario played out.

Texas lost game 2 at CWS on Saturday after getting to bed around 5 on Friday, after flying all night from LA.

I have heard from many players that it is game 2 that is the bear especially traveling thru a couple of time zones.

GL

Luckydan · Answer

Cubs on Tuesday afternoon might be worth a look since LA played Sunday Night in LA, got in around 4 am, and had to play tonight.

In the old days, there was a basket of greenies in the clubhouse but not today...wink wink.

GL

washhead · Answer

Luckydan -- Interesting thoughts on Game 2 of a series rather than Game 1 after a late-night flight cross-country.

Like rivermonsterz says, it's something to look at, but probably not effective as a hard and fast rule.

washhead · Answer

NYM would be a play tomorrow night, as Cincinnati is in Pitt tonight and NY tomorrow.  Not exactly a long flight, but it fits the criteria.

Luckydan · Answer

Mets would not be a play against for me because they played an afternoon game today, and traveling from Milwaukee to NY is not an issue.

Anytime there are 2 or 3 time zones involved along with night flying, I will take a hard look it. SF, CWS and LAD are the most recent teams that fell within this category, and all lost Game 2. Something to watch.

GL

Luckydan · Answer

correction: Texas lost Game 2 vs CWS.GL

washhead · Answer

The play tonight would not be a play against NYM, but a play for NYM (fading Cincinnati).  Tonight Cincy is in a different city than last night, both at night, both on the road.

washhead · Answer

NYM were a winner at &#x2B;109 last night.  6-5   -0.79u so far.

Fading road teams on second night of back-to-back night games in different cities

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