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Question

What do you do to determine the outcome of a baseball game?

jaybosstein · Answer

What do you do to determine the outcome of a baseball game?

DegenGamble · Answer

Take a look at all the various run estimators out there.

https://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Category:Run_estimators

The ones you will here about the most are

Runs Created and Base Runs

marko123 · Answer

Nice link Degen. I was looking through it and I think the best way to predict it is to take an average of the run estimators then multiply that by a certain opposing pitcher factor. I was thinking of maybe taking the natural log of ERC and multiplying that by the avg runs estimated. Ill post an example later

DegenGamble · Answer

I need help with the Base Formula:&#xD;&#xA;A = H &#x2B; W &#x2B; HBP - HR - .5*IWB = (1.4*TB - .6*H - 3*HR &#x2B; .1*(W &#x2B; HBP - IW) &#x2B; .9*(SB - CS - GDP))*1.1C = AB - H &#x2B; CS &#x2B; GDPD = HR&#xD;&#xA;BR = A*B/(B &#x2B; C) &#x2B; D&#xD;&#xA;So assuming you use batter career stats versus the opposing starting pitcher&#xD;&#xA;I think the end result is the total Base Runs that the batter creates if the player batted all 9 positions in the lineup.&#xD;&#xA;So how would I figure out how many Base Runs the batter would produce if only batting 1 spot in the lineup.&#xD;&#xA;Can I just divide by 9?  &#xD;&#xA;Do I just divide the the Base Runs by number of At Bats and then multiple by the typical number At Bats a player has per game? (i.e. 3 or 4)

marko123 · Answer

I don&#x27;t think you can divide by 9. The wiki page talked about manipulating BR for an individual batter. It said to use the batter you are interested in and 8 other average players.What I would do is I would find the league average for every single stat above. I would use those numbers for 8 players and use the batter&#x27;s stats for the batter you&#x27;re interested in. I would add the numbers up for the 9 players for each stat and use that in the calculation.Then I would create a sort of base figure. I would take the league average and apply it to 9 players. That would be an average team.You would take the BR with your batter and subtract the league avg BR which should give you the runs your batter created.

DegenGamble · Answer

Thanks Marko - makes sense - I have it calculating individual stats and it&#x27;s coming up with HUGE base run numbers right now.&#xD;&#xA;Math is definitely not my forte.....

PeteyRose · Answer

you guys can do all the math you want, but you will never beat Vegas&#x27;s math.

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