Been poking around here for about a week and finally found this section.
I think we can all agree that the oddsmakers know what they are doing, so with that in mind, I have been collecting numbers for about a year and a half searching for groups of numbers that seem to play well because the oddsmaker are taking a stand on the game. All of my numbers are from sportsbook.com and I get them as soon as I can.
For example, over the past two seasons in the NBA, when a game opens as a pickem the home team has won 26 and lost 12. In this scenario, the oddsmakers have picked the spot that a team with a worse record (for the most part) will beat a team with a better record. I realize that this is not a lot of games but I feel the logic behind it is solid.
I have some other scenarios that seem to play well, with some logic behind it. A bit of reverse line movement scenarios of NBA totals also. Just interested in what other people try to create with their numbers.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Been poking around here for about a week and finally found this section.
I think we can all agree that the oddsmakers know what they are doing, so with that in mind, I have been collecting numbers for about a year and a half searching for groups of numbers that seem to play well because the oddsmaker are taking a stand on the game. All of my numbers are from sportsbook.com and I get them as soon as I can.
For example, over the past two seasons in the NBA, when a game opens as a pickem the home team has won 26 and lost 12. In this scenario, the oddsmakers have picked the spot that a team with a worse record (for the most part) will beat a team with a better record. I realize that this is not a lot of games but I feel the logic behind it is solid.
I have some other scenarios that seem to play well, with some logic behind it. A bit of reverse line movement scenarios of NBA totals also. Just interested in what other people try to create with their numbers.
I understand what you are pointing to, but let me tell you something right away: the oddsmakers will adjust their line making as soon as they realize that something has a trend bigger than 55%...meaning: in your example above, they would have changed the line on such games before they even posted it as soon as a trend emerges...thats why it is so hard to beat the line in the long run...they try to eliminate trends...I am not saying that its impossible to beat them with something you mention in the short time frame, but its nearly impossible in the long run...
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I understand what you are pointing to, but let me tell you something right away: the oddsmakers will adjust their line making as soon as they realize that something has a trend bigger than 55%...meaning: in your example above, they would have changed the line on such games before they even posted it as soon as a trend emerges...thats why it is so hard to beat the line in the long run...they try to eliminate trends...I am not saying that its impossible to beat them with something you mention in the short time frame, but its nearly impossible in the long run...
You are exactly right that the oddsmakers will adjust. But their was also a reason for this as well. I do like looking at certain spots like this because it still gives you information. My question would be how did the line move in each game prior to tip off and what was the closing line. IMO, there is usually more information to look at than one simple trend.
There are certain things I have seen over the last decade or so that make me either lay off or look deeper into a match-up. I am not saying this is one of those, but it could be.
Many handicappers find things like this. They might not bet it every time because nothing 100%, but it is something that sets bells off.
monroekelly21, BOL on the rest of the season.
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Call82,
You are exactly right that the oddsmakers will adjust. But their was also a reason for this as well. I do like looking at certain spots like this because it still gives you information. My question would be how did the line move in each game prior to tip off and what was the closing line. IMO, there is usually more information to look at than one simple trend.
There are certain things I have seen over the last decade or so that make me either lay off or look deeper into a match-up. I am not saying this is one of those, but it could be.
Many handicappers find things like this. They might not bet it every time because nothing 100%, but it is something that sets bells off.
Thanks for the replies. Generally, the spread moves in favor of the visiting team, which is the better team. I understand what you are saying... My point behind this scenario is the thinking that the gambler will say, "Man, all the Mavericks have to do is win the game." The oddsmaker clearly think Phoenix has a reasonable chance to win the game outright and that is why they are "taking a stand" Basically they are saying you can have Dallas, we'll take the Suns. Otherwise, it is just free money for the bettor.
The last two examples I have are...
March 27 - Mavericks @ Suns The spread moved in favor of the Mavs and the money definitely favored the Mavs. The Suns lost, but were up at the half and Mavs shot poorly for the game but Phoenix shot 1-16 from three. Even if they shoot 25%, they win the game. (I know scenarios change if different shots are made/missed throughout the game, but if Phoenix doesn't have a miserable 3-pt night, they have a great chance to win)
March 26 - Pacers @ Pistons Pistons won, and the spread moved in their favor but the money was on the Pacers, something like 70% on sportsbook. Oddsmakers took all of the Pacers money which is who they wanted people to bet on.
So, my question is this... Do you really think that these games would be a point (or more) spread either way? Why would they adjust this when they are making money because people are taking the teams (for the most part) they want them to take?
This is the kind of discussion, I was hoping to have. Look forward to any and all input.
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Thanks for the replies. Generally, the spread moves in favor of the visiting team, which is the better team. I understand what you are saying... My point behind this scenario is the thinking that the gambler will say, "Man, all the Mavericks have to do is win the game." The oddsmaker clearly think Phoenix has a reasonable chance to win the game outright and that is why they are "taking a stand" Basically they are saying you can have Dallas, we'll take the Suns. Otherwise, it is just free money for the bettor.
The last two examples I have are...
March 27 - Mavericks @ Suns The spread moved in favor of the Mavs and the money definitely favored the Mavs. The Suns lost, but were up at the half and Mavs shot poorly for the game but Phoenix shot 1-16 from three. Even if they shoot 25%, they win the game. (I know scenarios change if different shots are made/missed throughout the game, but if Phoenix doesn't have a miserable 3-pt night, they have a great chance to win)
March 26 - Pacers @ Pistons Pistons won, and the spread moved in their favor but the money was on the Pacers, something like 70% on sportsbook. Oddsmakers took all of the Pacers money which is who they wanted people to bet on.
So, my question is this... Do you really think that these games would be a point (or more) spread either way? Why would they adjust this when they are making money because people are taking the teams (for the most part) they want them to take?
This is the kind of discussion, I was hoping to have. Look forward to any and all input.
It isn't always the money that affects the line, it is whose money it is. Was that 70% of the money or 70% of the bets? Number of bets doesn't always equal the money.
In the second scenario, it could be that some of their sharp clients were on the Pistons, so the book moved it that way. It is hard to say.
But like I said, it is good information, and though nothing is 100% effective, if you pay attention, the sportsbooks give you some nice information to what they are thinking.
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It isn't always the money that affects the line, it is whose money it is. Was that 70% of the money or 70% of the bets? Number of bets doesn't always equal the money.
In the second scenario, it could be that some of their sharp clients were on the Pistons, so the book moved it that way. It is hard to say.
But like I said, it is good information, and though nothing is 100% effective, if you pay attention, the sportsbooks give you some nice information to what they are thinking.
I understand it is more about who is betting when the line moves rather than how much. According to sportsbook, it is the percentage of money. I am not real concerned with the spread movement in this scenario, I was just answering your question about the movement.
For the most part, the majority of the money is always on the visiting team because they are the better team. So, when the home team wins 70% of the time, the books are taking all of the money.
Why would Phoenix be a pick em when playing the Mavericks? Because the oddsmakers feel like the Suns have a good chance to win and they know they will get all the money bet on the Mavs.
I am wondering what you think I should do with this info. Handicap these games and stay away unless I like the home team?
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I understand it is more about who is betting when the line moves rather than how much. According to sportsbook, it is the percentage of money. I am not real concerned with the spread movement in this scenario, I was just answering your question about the movement.
For the most part, the majority of the money is always on the visiting team because they are the better team. So, when the home team wins 70% of the time, the books are taking all of the money.
Why would Phoenix be a pick em when playing the Mavericks? Because the oddsmakers feel like the Suns have a good chance to win and they know they will get all the money bet on the Mavs.
I am wondering what you think I should do with this info. Handicap these games and stay away unless I like the home team?
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