Analyzing favs taken as Run Line dogs:
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.
League Wide: 72.5% +200 or more: 70.2% +190s: 77.0% +180s: 76.4% +170s: 67.4% +160s: 75.3% +150s: 72.9% +140s: 70.9% +130s: 73.5% +120s: 68.0% +110s: 72.4% +100s: 72.9% -100s: 68.9% -110s: 70.6% -120s: 72.4% -130s: 72.4% -140s: 74.7% -150s: 74.5% -160s: 75.3% -170s: 71.9% -180s: 70.8% -190s: 77.5% -200s: 76.2%
Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.
The reason for this is quite simple: Home Teams that win the game do not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Road teams that win the game still bat in the Top of the 9th. That means the Road winner has 12.5% more at-bats than the corresponding home favorite.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
