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is the answer right here at covers?

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Posted: #1
Time Away Line Picks Pct           Home    Line   Picks           Pct  

1:00 PM Seattle +6 1726 34.44%  Chicago       -6 3285      65.56%  
1:00 PM Atlanta +1 2881 60.21% Phil              -1 1904       39.79%
8:20 PM Indi       -3 3758 70.49% Wash           +3 1573       29.51%
  
 this is from the consensus page games for Oct 17 - 3 games over 60%  all on the wrong team.
 
  more to come -- so 3-0 last week
 
 
 
    
 
 
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Posted: #2
go for it. consensus usualy hit what the public does here on covers. about 51 or so percent. ive done the math throughout the last basketball, baseball & current football season. WE are the public. whether we like it or not. check ANY weekly ncaa football here. the public, err, covers people mainly like the favs.
 
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Posted: #3
time       Away       Line Picks Pct            Home     Line  Picks   Pct 
1:00 PM N.Y. G     +3    1670 33.64%       Hous       -3  3294  66.36%  
8:20 PM Phil          +3    2014 38.89%    San Fran    -3  3165  61.11%  
1:00 PM Tampa      +6.5 1950 40.16%     Cin          -6.5  2905 59.84%  
4:15 PM San D       -7    3532 69.00%     Oakland    +7   1587 31.00%  
1:00 PM Green B   -2.5  3636 69.83%     Wash      +2.5  1571 30.17% 
1:00 PM Atlanta     -3    3715 72.37%      Clevel      +3   1418  27.63%  
4:05 PM New Or    -6.5  4009 77.41%    Arizona   +6.5 1170    22.59% 
 
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Posted: #4

above is Oct 10th

NYG covers against Houst  0-1

Philly wins outright   1-1

Tampa wins outright 2-1

Oak wins outright 3-1

Wash wins outright 4-1

Atl wins 4-2

Arizona wins outright 5-2 

 
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Posted: #5
those were upset wins. I agree with you covers consensus were wrong. but im telling you I have done the math. wait till the ncaa football weekend comes j you will see its about even. 
the fact is the public, covers bettors, are right 51% of the time normally. 
if you are ballsy enough to go against the covers consensus you WILL end up around 49%. going against the public is stupid terminology since they win 51% of the time & lose 49%. the puiblic ACTUALLY wins more than they lose. Just not enough to make a profit.
 
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Posted: #6
415 PM Arizona      +10 1783 35.61%       San D     -10  3224 64.39%  
1:00 PM Carolina    +12.5 1807 36.73%    New Or   -12.5 3113 63.27% 
1:00 PM San Fran      +7  1941 37.12%        Atl        -7 3288 62.88%  
1:00 PM N.Y.J       -5.5 3548    67.80%        Buf +5.5  1685 32.20%  
1:00 PM Cin           -1.5 3724  69.74%         Cleve   +1.5 1616 30.26%  
4:05 PM Indi             -7 3709  70.96%         Jack     +7 1518   29.04%  
4:05 PM Houston -3.5 3903    72.78%       Oakland  +3.5 1460 27.22%  
 
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Posted: #7

above is Oct 3

S.D. covers 0-1

Carolina covers 1-1

S.F. covers 2-1

Jets win 2-2

Clev wins outright 3-2

Jacksonville wins outright 4-2

Houston wins 4-3 


so last 3 weeks 12-5 

 
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Posted: #8

 Away Line Picks Pct                         Home  Line  Picks    Pct 

 Buffalo +14 1310 25.54%                New Eng      -14   3819 74.46%   Cleveland +12 1611 30.70%              Balt            -12  3637 69.30%

 Atlanta +3 1901    38.27%              New Orlean     -3 3066 61.73%  

 San Diego -3.5 3205 60.61%           Seattle    +3.5    2083 39.39%

Detroit +13 3273       62.28%            Minn        -13    1982 37.72%  
 Indian        -5.5 3578  67.09%        Denver     +5.5   1755   32.91%  
Pitts         -2     3731    67.57%       Tampa      +2   1791    32.43%  
 Phil          -2   3746   68.66%         Jack         +2    1710   31.34%  
Wash       -4.5   3966 73.00%         St. L         +4.5  1467  27.00%  
Cincin       -3  4438 78.63%             Carolina       +3   1206   21.37%  
 
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Posted: #9

above is sept 26th

Buf covers 1-0

Clev covers 2-0

Atl wins outright 3-0

Seattle wins outright 4-0

Min covers 5-0

Indianapolis covers 5-1

Pits covers 5-2

Philly covers 5-3

St.L wins outright 6-3

Cincy wins 6-4 


so 18-9 against covers consensus over 60% last 4 weeks

 
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Posted: #10
I think a few more weeks of back testing would be great and then after that lets get some money going. You should break it down and write all the plays out in this thread see how much cash we can make.
Love the idea!

 
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Posted: #11
Sept 19th

 Buffalo    +12.5 1278   23.35%     Gr Bay  -12.5 4195   76.65%    
 Tampa Bay   +4 1232 29.35%      Carolina  -4 2965     70.65%    
 Arizona      +7 1646   30.07%     Atlanta  -7  3828      69.93%    
Miami      +5.5 1780   31.73%   Minn    -5.5 3830      68.27% 
Pittsburgh  +6 1991    35.76%    Tenn     -6  3576      64.24% 
Houston    -2.5 3436   60.24%    Wash   +2.5 2268    39.76%   
KC               +3 3336 62.80%       Clev       -3 1976    37.20%   
Phil            -6.5 3868  69.07%     Detroit  +6.5 1732   30.93% 
New England  -3 4406 76.20%     N.Y. J.     +3 1376   23.80%   
 
G.B. wins 0-1
Tampa wins outright 1 - 1
Atlanta wins 1-2
Miami wins outright 2-2
Pits wins outright 3-2
Houston covers 3-3
Clev covers 4-3
Det covers 5-3
Jets win outright 6 -3

now 24-12
 
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Posted: #12

first line on post 4 is wrong 

should read Giants win outright 1-0 instead of 0-1

makes record betting against 60% consensus on covers in  the NFL

25 -11 ATS

 
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Posted: #13

25 - 11 is pretty good but take it for full season so u have more data we arent at half way point yet 

and one spread you had Texans  -2 1/2 @ Skins  i saw -3 every where else

 
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Posted: #14

lets see what happens


Buff +13

Clev +13

Chicago -3

Carolina +2

Miami +3

S.D.  -2.5

Arizona +7 is very close at 40.38 % -- will check back sunday

 
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Posted: #15
4-1 so far! Looks like this could have some promise.
 
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Posted: #16

4-3. That seems about right with the public/covers. Well, at least you made a profit.  Seems to be a lot of parity in NFL this year. No outstanding team.  Lot of overated teams Covers are taking. Let's see what you got for the upcoming week. Maybe you can hit a couple more.

BOL

 
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Posted: #17

actually 4-2 didnt paly Zona

with 2 more dog outright winners --I,ll take it

 
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Posted: #18

oct 31

Carolina +2.5

Minnesota +5.5

on the bubble Seattle, New Orleans, San Diego -- all are at or just below 40% right now


 
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Posted: #19
also Detroit -2.5 is also on the bubble - will have final card sunday morning
 
 
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Posted: #20

0-2 LAST WEEK

lots of plays this week

Dallas +7

Detroit +4.5

Seattle +7

Atlanta -9.5

Phill -3

Carolina +6

Clev +3.5

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