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Kenpom System

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Posted: #1
Anyone remember the system where Kenpom was used beginning around mid February with teams ranked from around 140-200??????
 
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Posted: #2
Before we begin, out of respect for the hundreds of hours that has been spent developing, tracking, back-testing, and writing about this system, please respect the following rules:

1. Please don't start daily threads about the system plays, keep all system related content in this thread

2. Anytime someone comes into this thread and asks what the system is OR what are the system plays, please repost the following statement: "READ THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF"

(If after reading this post, they still don't understand what makes a "system" play, then they probably shouldn't be gambling in the first place and you will sleep better at night knowing you are enabling them to make wagers). 

Here are the OLD system parameters:
Bet against any team that:
1. Is outside of Kenpom's top 180
2. Is at home
3. Is favored by 6.5 or more and plays in a conference that always has "lined" games

Here is a "brief" explanation of why this works:
*Lower-ranked teams have less "tight" lines than higher ranked teams
*There is much less "action" on lower-ranked teams' game so lines don't adjust as quickly (or at all - but not as true recently however)
*All casual gamblers prefer (read: always) to bet on favorites
*Lower-ranked teams shouldn't be given as much credit for playing at home as higher ranked teams (key to the value of the system)
*Motivation is a HUGE factor for lower-ranked teams' when they are out of conference title and playoff contention and at the end of a long lost season
*In these instances, its easier for coaches to control focus, disciple, motivation on the road, then when teams are playing at home
*Lower ranked teams have a higher "variance" in performance and are less likely to win and cover as a favorite (even when playing a perceived weaker opponent).
*Gamblers have a long memory and are very likely to not bet on a team that has burned them earlier in the season.

If you don't agree with the above theories, the solution is simple, don't bet the system and feel free to avoid this thread forever.

Please understand that there is much more to it than this, but for sake of time and length I'll stop here (plus I have written thousands of words going into much greater detail on this topic here on covers).  Also realize that we could take literally HUNDREDS of angles and include them in the system (i.e. revenge, winning and losing steaks, injuries etc.), but the fewer parameters a system has, the stronger it is.  That is the beauty of the system, its very simple to follow. 

Here is how the system has done: 
First, you need to realize that there are always a handful of games every season that are "fuzzy" (i.e. did a line move to the "6.5 threshold" and, of course, the infamous what line did you get it at, as these games can have a tendency to move multiple points in any direction).  No matter how you look at it, over the past two seasons, from bracketbuster Saturday till the end of the season, this system has been 30+ games over .500.  If you include the "pre-system" (starting Feb 1st till bracketbuster Saturday), the past three seasons the pre-system is 25+ games over .500 itself.    

Here is why we are making adjustments:
*Special note: If you are happy with "the old system" (and why wouldn't you be), feel free to continue to bet it as is and disregard the rest of this post, just understand that we (as the covers community) don't care what you personally do.  Just don't come into this thread crying about win and losses, etc.  you are a big boy (or girl) and if you ever think this system "sucks" feel free to stop betting it and disregard this thread forever.  Also, if you bet 1st half, 2nd half, moneylines and/or teams that are from conferences that don't normally have lines, then you are no longer following "the system" (which is perfectly fine, and in fact, I encourage it - I'll get more into that at the end).

We are making adjustments for numerous reasons:
1. Both the system and pre-system winning percentages have dropped each of the first two seasons (still winning at a great clip, but a decline is a decline).  2. The 6.5 point spread is a subjective number and could (and probably should) be changed as more data comes our way. 3. The teams around the 180 ranking can be "better" or "worse" from year to year and that number should be adjusted every season. 4. With almost all casinos and online books using the same "added games" sheet supplied by line making services, the Summit League is now included in system plays (while the American East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, and Southwestern Athletic are still excluded).  Again, the reason being that bettors don't have negative feelings about those teams over previous losses.  5. Conference tournament plays ARE NOT included in the system, even if a system-qualifying team is hosting the game on its home floor. 

Continued below . . .



 
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Posted: #3
HERE ARE THE NEW SYSTEM PARAMETERS:
Bet against any team:
That Is Kenpom #165 or worse
That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite 
That is at home and always has "lined" games (includes Summit)

"Brief" explanation:
First, let me say that even though the "pre-system" and "system" combined are over 55 games over .500 in the past 2 and a half years, people are always trying to "improve" the system or "explain" why a system game loses.  For every one time the system loses with a team ranked between 180-200, there is another one time the system loses with a team ranked between 260-280, for every one time the system loses with a team favored by 7, there is another one time the system loses with a team favored by 15. 

The only significant common trend of the system losses is with teams/games that are "bet into" the 6.5+ range when opening below that number.  There are numerous explanations for this, but its really not important right now, what is important is that this minor tweak to avoid these particular system losses makes the system a little less "simple."  For sake of simplicity, the "opening number" is the first number you are able to bet the NIGHT BEFORE the game in question. 

Next, the kenpom number has dropped because there are more mediocre teams in college hoops this season (of course this is a subjective statement and you can use many different methods to prove/disprove this opinion).  My main reason for the drop in Kenpom ranking for the season and my belief that there are more mediocre teams in NCAA this year is how volatile the rankings are this season.  Take, for instance, Cal Poly this season.  On Jan 26th (just over three weeks ago), they were Kenpom ranked 86 and now, on Feb 19th, they are 180!  North Texas was ranked 240 on January 1st, now, just over six weeks later (and multiple suspensions mind you), they are ranked 156.  This is also good for us because teams that get hot will more quickly move out of the range of a system play and teams that play poorly will drop into the system more readily as well. 

Also, two years ago, of the teams ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 7 teams that made the NCAA tournament.  Last year, of team ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 3 teams that made the NCAA tournament.  This year, when looking at the Kenpom 140-180, there would be definitely zero at-large ncaa teams and you can certainly count on one hand how many you THINK could POSSIBLY make a run at their conference tournament championship and the automatic ncaa tourney bid.  

Here are the important things to know:
1. I don't like systems, I think they are for lazy people and for people who are unskilled at researching and knowing the game of basketball.  That being said, this is, by far, the most successful and simple college basketball system I have ever seen or heard of so I would be crazy to not at least consider making all the system plays.  Just realize that we will be betting on a few dozen of the same super crappy teams over the next two weeks (but that is the reason why it is still winning, even when people know the system is hitting, they still have a hard time betting on the Citadel's and Canisius' of the world).  If you decide to bet the system plays (or even the "old" system or some variation you design for yourself), bet ALL of the plays and don't handicap them at all or you will find a dozen (or more) reasons to not bet it. 

2. I fully expect this system to win LESS than the previous two seasons despite these adjustments.  The freaking system went 37-10 the first year, I don't think it will ever come close to those numbers again for as long as I live.  I do, however, believe it will make money.  You only need to look as far as the past few weeks to see why it won't be as successful.  There are MANY more people betting dogs these days.  A conservative estimate is about 60-80% of the games that have opened in the past few weeks with a line of 6 or higher involving lower-ranked teams HAS BEEN BET DOWN NOT UP.  The advantage we had two years ago (and even further back than that) is that even though the lines for terrible teams were clearly "off," those lines would CONTINUE TO GET BIGGER.  Just last week, there was a line that I made at -16, the line opened at -13.5 AND WENT DOWN, that is unheard of and will hurt the profitability of the system to be sure. 

3. If a line opens at +11 and you don't bet it and then you check it right before tipoff and its +8, I can tell you two things: First, yes it is still a system play and secondly, you are an idiot if you bet it.  The line has lost all value and just because it "fits" the system parameters doesn't mean you should still bet it, you should start locking in lines the night before.  Also, about a week ago, Toledo was a 6.5 pt dog and qualified for a pre-system play, I also liked it for myself when I capped it and by tipoff it was +9 so I added another unit and they won the game straight up.  I'm not a profit of line movement and can tell you that I would rather grab a line .5 pts too soon, than 1-2 pts too late.  Amazon.com forgot to ship me my crystal ball so its pointless to ask me what I think the line will do, if this season is any indication, it will probably move down (away from us). 

5. Lastly, and most importantly, I published the system on this site (much to the anger and dismay of many people) to be used as a GUIDELINE for the types of games and teams you should look to bet on so that you have an advantage.  These will be my third consecutive season of making a significant profit in college hoops and I can tell you that using the "principles" of the system is the main reason why.  This doesn't mean that I never bet favorites or home teams, its just to say that I'm looking for value in different places than most bettors. 

Take tomorrow, February 20th for example.  Kenpom ranked 153 St. Johns is at home against Depaul and a 5.5 pt favorite.  This doesn't fit either parameter of the system, but right away I am looking for reasons why St. John's won't cover that line.  Now after digging, maybe I will like St. John's (doubt it), Depaul (maybe), or no-play it (most likely).  But I am letting the system principles guide me in the "angle" that I look at the game.  Also, take Kenpom ranked 249 Miss Valley St who is at home and a 7.5 pt favorite (already down from 9.5 and it still isn't even up on 5dimes for me to bet) over Texas Southern (no this isn't a system play because they play in a conference that doesn't have regularly lined games).  When I begin to look at this game I'm going to try to find reasons why MVSU isn't going to cover this game.  Next, I'm going to have to determine if the "value" has already been lost from the line at 7.5.  Lastly, if it continues to drop, now I must consider MVSU as a possible play because of everyone betting Texas Southern. 









 
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Posted: #4
This was developed by KineProfessor and its all in the NCAAB Forum. GL
 
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Posted: #5
Thanx gamer
 
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Posted: #6
Any updates on performance?
 
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Posted: #7
6-4-1

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101275364&page=68
 
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Posted: #8
I start the last Sat in Jan. 2 weeks earlier than KineProfessor) Since then 24-18. Been using it for years. 4 games tonight.
 
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Posted: #9
Reaptherewards, do you have any data on 1st and 2nd half ATS records for plays over the years?

This year plays are 5-2 ATS in 2nd half after losing 1st half ATS.

1st year on the system so looking for help back checking.
 
 
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Posted: #10
Sorry I do not keep up with 1st half info. System is 189-115 since I've been using it, including this season.
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