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#1
Recently, a few times on my spreadsheet, I noticed that the difference from the opening line to the current line was significant. At the same time, the public wagering percentage was high for that team.
I heard of plays like these... you would fade this team in the above example. I don't like taking anyone's word for it so I'm going to track it.
That said, what are good numbers to have a play? The ML going down 10 on the favorite (-150 to -140)?.... 15 (-150 to -135)? Also, how much should the public percentage be on the faded team?
As of yesterday, I have the numbers as a ML move of 10 (example: -150 to -140) on the favorite and the public percentage at over 55%.
I try to refresh the odds as close to game time, but sometimes, like on Saturdays, just can't be done (I work).
Any thoughts on what the numbers should be?
Plays yesterday were San Fran and Chicago White Sox. Today it's Washington, NY Yankees and Texas. Texas' line went from -190 to -220 with only 37% of the public wagering on them.
Thoughts?
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