Makings of an NBA system

Question

I&#x27;ve only backtested 2 teams so far for this current season an the last two, but I&#x27;ve seen excellent ATS results so far. Here&#x27;s the system:When the Total on a a game for a team changes by 10 or more points from one game to the next, bet on that team to do the opposite of what they did in their previous game ATS.Example:Suppose the total on a Hawks-Celtics game is 189. In that game the Celtics are -3 point favorites. Let&#x27;s say the Celtics cover that spread. If the very next game for the Celtics is 179 or less, or 199 or more, we would play on them to fail to cover whatever the spread is.Results:As I said I&#x27;ve only backtested 2 teams so far (BOS &amp; NJ)2011-2012 ATS Record 13-4 (76.5%)2010-2011 ATS Record 32-21 (60.4%)2009-2010 ATS Record 20-16 (55.6%)2009 Through 2011 ATS Record 65-41 (61.3%)I&#x27;m not sure how this compares to other systems, I&#x27;m more of a baseball guy, let me know what you think.

BCap888 · Answer

I&#x27;ve only backtested 2 teams so far for this current season an the last two, but I&#x27;ve seen excellent ATS results so far. Here&#x27;s the system:When the Total on a a game for a team changes by 10 or more points from one game to the next, bet on that team to do the opposite of what they did in their previous game ATS.Example:Suppose the total on a Hawks-Celtics game is 189. In that game the Celtics are -3 point favorites. Let&#x27;s say the Celtics cover that spread. If the very next game for the Celtics is 179 or less, or 199 or more, we would play on them to fail to cover whatever the spread is.Results:As I said I&#x27;ve only backtested 2 teams so far (BOS &amp; NJ)2011-2012 ATS Record 13-4 (76.5%)2010-2011 ATS Record 32-21 (60.4%)2009-2010 ATS Record 20-16 (55.6%)2009 Through 2011 ATS Record 65-41 (61.3%)I&#x27;m not sure how this compares to other systems, I&#x27;m more of a baseball guy, let me know what you think.

BCap888 · Answer

Forgot a filter: A team cannot have won or lost 3 or more games before the 10 point total swing.

koman22 · Answer

Good work man. Will definitely be paying attention to this.

Barnstorm · Answer

Don&#x27;t see the logic of why a 10 point change in the O/U means a team is going to do the opposite of what they did last game as far as covering the spread.I like to see some logic in a system.Now if you were betting the O/U one way or the other, that would make more sense.

BCap888 · Answer

Ok here it goes: For the total to go from say 190 to 180 the team they are playing the second night must be a pretty different team than the one they just played. The team your betting on is still the same, so the total is shifting based on the two opponents. Whether they&#x27;re playing a better team or a worse team, they&#x27;re different. I understand what you&#x27;re saying Barnstorm, hope that came across logical.

Makings of an NBA system

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