This is a painful thread to read. Racinivan was simply talking about a 3-game chase using a Martingale betting style of doubling. He never mentioned Labourchere.
Eddie2112, the Labourchere is just a betting style that can be used for many different chases, like ALL betting styles. It is not the actual chase itself. I think you might be confused because PSIC also talked about a chase involving teams that got swept. I still don't understand why people need to visualize a line of numbers to calculate their next bet. There are better ways to go about betting chases.
Btw, the NBA version that you haven't tried yet is NOT "near unbeatable". From the data I've seen, it just happened to have it's best year last year but normally loses 3 or 4 a year at least.
Cityofpain, of course his percentages are higher than flipping a coin. He said he wins 52% of his games. A coin flip is 50%. Over 130 or so samples, that 2% is more than "slight" IMO. I feel if you need to eliminate teams from a chase or use filters, then you're asking for big trouble. Most people don't do enough homework to really know what to eliminate. You said you have data back to 1999, great, so maybe you have a good idea. Also maybe you're not referring to specific teams, but teams in certain situations.
As ethancraft said, for such a suddenly popular betting style, the Labourchere was tried on this site and failed miserably. To be fair, it failed because the chase itself was failing. No betting style can save a bad chase system but I firmly believe there are better alternatives. If you're betting -150 baseball lines, you're losing 50% more on your losses than your wins and that reaks havoc on the Labourchere. You can "clear your line", actually lose money, and then raise your units on the next line? No thanks.
For example, if you start with a line of 10-10-10-10 and you're betting lines of -150 (the type of chase in this thread would probably be more), if you lose the first game you HAVE to win two of the next three games or you cannot profit by clearing that line. If you have -200 juice, forget it.
Keep in mind, -150 lines are basically saying you have a 60% chance to win. If you happen to lose the first game, you need to go 67% on the next three (2 of 3) to profit on that line. I realize that scenario would give you a profit with a 2-2 record, but my point is, your profit window is small with Labourchere. Lose that first game at high juice, and you're in instant trouble. If that line gets long (5 bets at -150 per), you're losing money.
Cityofpain, do you have a log with this year's data of your chase that shows a profit with Labourchere? I'd like to see it.
Racinivan, sorry to hijack your thread. Please continue with your work. Thank you.
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